Hey!
China!
WHO are you.
Posted on 02/26/2020 6:49:38 AM PST by Yo-Yo
Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Blog
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 25 February 2020
Summary: Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty. I see comment threads in which misinformation makes most readers know less than when they started. Meanwhile, this blockbuster good news from China is lost amidst the chaff.
First, a status report
From WHO’s February 24 situation report.
Outside China, there are 29 nations infected (1 new, 6 since Feb 3). There are 1,374 cases (261 new, 1,221 since February 3). This does not include the 695 infected and then quarantined on the Diamond Princess.
Blockbuster news from China
Here are excerpts from remarks by Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of WHO, at the February 24 media briefing. This is important news – contradicting guesses by the doomsters.
“We’re encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China.. …They found that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February, and has been declining steadily since then.
That is good news, and not just for China. With no preparation and relatively primitive public health networks (compared to those of developed nations), the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines. That is good news, because other nations are relying on quarantines to contain the infection.
Also, this suggests that the doomsters’ predictions that the epidemic would prove uncontrollable in China – sweepting through to its four corners – are wrong. China’s 77 thousand cases sounds like a large number, but it is a small fraction of China’s 1.4 billion people. That is true even if the true number infected is twice as large, or even (implausibly) five times as large.
“They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.”
The fatality rate in the developed nations will certainly be lower than that in China outside Wuhan (medical facilities in Wuhan are overwhelmed), although the estimate of a 0.7% fatality rate might be wrong. Original estimates were over 2% (e.g., here). If proven correct, this is great news.
“They found that for people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.”
That is also important news, as the length of time required for treatment of critical cases determines how quickly an epidemic overloads the hospital facilities of a region.
The Director gives the bottom line about the status of the epidemic: it is not a pandemic, yet.
“The sudden increases of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning. There’s a lot of speculation about whether these increases mean that this epidemic has now become a pandemic. We understand why people ask that question.
“WHO has already declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern – our highest level of alarm – {on January 30} when there were less than 100 cases outside China, and 8 cases of human-to-human transmission.
“Our decision about whether to use the word “pandemic” to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society.
“For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death. Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From our assessment, not yet.”
See the WHO website for details about the meaning of “pandemic” (here and here).
The doomsters spread panic
The doomsters are multiplying faster than those infected with the diesase, spreading misinformation. They use graphs showing rapid growth in the small numbers of infected to make this seem like a major pandemic outside China. It’s not, at least yet.
They make bold statements about COVID-19 not justified by currrent research, especially comparing it to the flu. Most importantly, they assume developed nations will have the same rates of spread & mortality as China – despite our vastly better medical infrastructure.
Making this much worse is the same dynamic seen in the climate change debate: experts seeking their 15 minutes of fame by making statements (often quite wild) that are outside of the consensus, without mentioning that. In the early stages of the epidemic, there was pushback to this by other experts. Now, as in climate science, the pushback has stopped – encouaging more experts to fuel the hysteria for their own gain.
What next?
Epidemics are like wars in another respect: their outcomes are difficult to predict. But whatever happens, this is – as I said on January 25 – a historical milestone. The combination of global organization and high tech has allowed preparations during the past 54 days of an unprecedented speed and scale. Without these, by now we might be in the midst of a devastating global pandemic. This is progress.
But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war. In the midst of the Coronavirus epidemic, President Trump proposed cutting funding to the World Health Organization by 53% and to the Pan American Health Organization by 75%. Madness.
It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.
* There is their daily situation report, with detailed numbers.
* The Director-General of WHO gives frequent briefings, which are quite insightful.
* Their daily press briefings have more information. An audio goes up quickly afterwards. A transcript is posted the next day.
Posts about the coronavirus pandemic.
* The 2019-nCoV virus shows that we’ve built a better world.
* Hidden news about the epidemic sweeping across America! – How fake news drives out good news.
* Amazing but hidden news about coronavirus – Update about the epidemic, and why so few know the good news.
* Lessons from the coronavirus about climate change.
* Cut thru myths to see facts about COVID-19.
Orange Chicken from Panda Express.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist!!
Ah, I can excuse indulgence on vodka tonics, then....
*in
Hey!
China!
WHO are you.
This is finally the first non-propaganda story I’ve seen on this subject to date
Nearly 100% of this stupid coronavirus story is merely government scare propaganda
U.S. percent of world GDP = 15%
U.S. percent of WHO budget = 22%
we are NOT the problem
PLUS: we spend a lot on our CDC
““They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.””
I’ve seen the 0.7% outside Wuhan/China number several places - which puts it into a Flu range..which is especially ‘rosy” because it’s a strain that nobody has really been encountering.
*in
“The article accepts the data being released by China is accurate and complete.”
No, it actually doesn’t. The article itself acknowledges China’s numbers may be significantly higher in reality than what are reported:
“China’s 77 thousand cases sounds like a large number, but it is a small fraction of China’s 1.4 billion people. That is true even if the true number infected is twice as large, or even (implausibly) five times as large.”
WHO’s numbers are from the chicoms so that makes their numbers laughable. In reality the US probably does know the full extent of the carnage in China assuming the US intelligence community can walk and chew gum, but then again they are too busy playing politics rather than doing their jobs.
Right now I don’t believe any of the numbers out there from WHO or the chicoms. Honestly I find it hard to believe US government numbers since this government lies like Hanoi Hannah, even when it doesn’t need to lie. So I’m just taking precautions and sitting back and watching this play out.
Flu mortality is approx. 1 in 2000 or .05%. Covid-19 at .7% is 14 in 2000. 14 times higher than “flu range”. This is why in areas hit hard, like Wuhan, the mortality rate goes up to 2%-4%. Hospitals and medical supplies are overwhelmed.
What’s for lunch?”
You can do something about it, at least for yourself. Go out and buy lunch enough to last for about a month in case a Chinese or South Korean or Italian quarantine comes to your neighborhood.
;)
I’m self sufficient here on my 32 acres in KY. That’s one of the reasons I moved here from Seattle.
This year, our Flu mortality rate is .095
It’s very important - perhaps lifesaving - to consider that the Chinese may be telling the truth, because we would need a revolution in the West to do what they have done, BUT - that may be exactly what we need to do.
Look at their data: Cases and deaths continue by hundreds a day in Wuhan/Hubei province. I presume this is true. Wuhan has been cut off from the outside world for 35 days. And, by the way, why Wuhan is STILL a hot spot remains unexplained - but it does set an example of WHY we can’t allow any more Wuhans.
Cases in the other 32 provinces, yesterday, were 11 - for the whole country including Taiwan, HK, and Macau.
This (may) mean that lockdown - I mean, surrounding Turin, Italy (lets say) with tanks and shooting people trying to leave, grounding all passenger aircraft, stopping passenger ships from leaving port, no busses, no trains will actually work IF WE DO THAT RIGHT NOW.
In 72 hours it won’t work anymore.
Let’s discuss.
Do they mention the Chinese have changed their method of counting.
They are so screwed up, we need to look at Western Countries who kind of tell the truth.
So look at Korea and Japan.
Plus any headline with the word “bombshell” should really be ignored. I don’t think JAMA uses bombshell in their titles.
WHO was/is a total fail on COVID-19...knew about it from China in December, no WHO staff in China until February.
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