Posted on 11/07/2005 7:54:13 PM PST by Swordmaker
The momentum generated by Apple's iPod digital music players and related products continues to translate into new Macintosh sales according to one Wall Street analyst who estimates that over one million Windows users have purchased a Mac in the first three quarters of 2005.
In a research note released to clients on Monday, Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf said the number of Windows users purchasing a Mac appears to be far higher than the firm had previously anticipated.
"If we assume that all of the growth in Mac shipments during the past three quarters resulted from Windows users purchasing a Mac, then purchases by Windows users exceeded one million," the analyst said. "Indeed, the number of Windows users purchasing Macs in 2005 could easily exceed our forecast of 1.3 million switchers in 2006."
Needham had previously estimated that 500,000 Windows users would purchase a Mac in 2005, but says its model underestimated the number of Windows users the Mac could capture because it was limited to Windows users who had purchased an iPod.
According to checks with Apple Store Specialists, Wolf also said a larger than expected percentage of Windows to Mac converts appear to be purchasing Apple's higher-end systems and that their transition is fueled by the epidemic of viruses and malware on the Windows platform.
Meanwhile, the analyst believes Apple's redefinition of the music player market with the iPod shuffle, iPod nano and video iPod continues to distance the company from its competition.
"A year ago, there was a constant stream of 'iPod killer' stories. With the introductions of the nano and video iPod, Apple has left its competitors in the dust," Wolf wrote. "Sony is the only major name-brand competitor that appears to have a future in this market, although its product portfolio is now a generation behind the iPod nano and video iPod."
While Needham had previously forecast the that hard drive-based music players would take over the market due to their larger capacities and reduced costs, the firm says Apple's simultaneous introduction of the iPod nano and discontinuation of the iPod mini "changed all of that." Needham is now forecasting that high capacity flash players will represent the largest media category, outpacing hard disk players by a more than 2-to-1 ratio over the next several years.
However, sometime around 2007 the firm expects 1-inch hard drive players -- like the iPod mini -- to make a comeback as their capacities reach 20-gigabytes. At this time, the iPod’s share of the 1-inch hard drive segment should rebound, Wolf said. In the meantime, he believes 1.8-inch hard drive players will continue to play an important role because their high capacities are uniquely suited for video content.
Despite the Needham's positive comments on Apple, the firm on Monday downgraded shares of the company's stock to "Hold," saying it believes Apple shares are now "fully valued."
"We’re downgrading Apple from a buy to a hold because the company’s share price has reached our revised price target of $61," Wolf said. "During the past year, in response to the introduction of breakthrough new iPods and Macs and outstanding financial results, we’ve doubled our price target."
Still, the analyst hedges his bets, explaining Apple's "frenetic pace of innovation" could present new opportunities, which could trigger an upgrade at a price that’s much higher than it is today.
"New products and innovative strategies from Apple should keep coming. However, we can’t quantify them in our valuation model since we don’t know what they are," Wolf said. "The risks in our downgrade stem from what we don’t know as well as the possibility that Windows users are migrating to the Mac platform at a far higher rate than we’ve modeled."
I'm sure IBM is a big fan still!
The wave of the future is 64 bit. Personally, I'd look to find a machine where I could replace individual components, should the need arise. I'm not a fan of machines where the graphics processor is fused on the motherboard, or is in a proprietary format. Example: (lower end) Sony Vaio: good machine -- dead end in the graphics arena. Since everything is on the motherboard, its not possible to upgrade the graphics processor without throwing out the computer. Actually this is true for most low-end machines. Personally, I've got several AMD-64 bit machines where all the items can be replaced and upgraded. I've also got separate harddrives that contain different OSs -- Solaris, Linux, and I can load and boot to my hearts content.
Got my Mac in front of me and my Sony laptop to the left with XP.
No comparison. The Mac is just better. Much less hassle. No dll BS and other assorted tiles that eventually fly off the roof during normal usage.
When the Sony dies it's a Mac laptop for me.
I switched to Mac this year because of security issues with Windows.
Cuz I made the switch in 2003.
My Nano seems to have very long battery life. I can't tell you exactly how long it runs continuously but I hardly ever need to recharge it and the battery doesn't seem to drain if it isn't used for a few days, unlike my previous Ipods.
Ipod switchers and people who don't like virii.
Dell says it builds 50,000 computers per day and places 400,000 orders per month.
Now, 133,000 computers are retired or replaced each day. This means that as strong as MSFT is now, it really is possible for it to fall pretty quickly.
I'm working on getting an MS in computer science and find it difficult to use my Macs for class work. The first problem being getting up to date Java. Sun doesn't provide Java for Macs, Apple does it in house. Apple will only update Java for whatever is the latest OS. And Java is a big component of most of my classes and they love to use all the latest widgets in 1.5. Thus I'm screwed.
Secondly the various architecture and OS classes often require simulators and interpreters that only run on PCs. A few years ago I had to use the university's lab to work on projects that used a Motorola processor interpreter that only ran on PCs! The irony!!!!
I do like the new iMacs and will probably replace my DP 500Mhz G4 with an Intel iMac next year. Perhaps I'll use the G4 to run Yellowdog Linux.
Most of those people probably aren't "converts" - they are using both systems simultaneously.
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2005/computer_sales.html
Your numbers are way off, probably old. Worldwide PC shipments are about 220 million per year. Dell has about 18 percent of that. That's over 100,000 per day, 365 days a year.
I did the same thing last year for the same reason. I use a PC at work because that is what our system is set up for. BTW I don't have an IPod nor do I plan on getting one. I just like to get on my computer and use it whenever I like without going through a checklist of defense taskings and renewing software yearly to keep malicious creeps away. The Apple clique never did much for me but I got to admit their box is easy to use and is just safer than the PC. In the end they are all just consumer items and I choose to go with the one that works with much less hassle.
Which makes yours an unnecessary reply to an unnecessary comment. =)
LOL - haven't seen her in awhile. What's she been up to?
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