Any kind of victory for Russia in Ukraine is going to encourage China. If they see the west crumble at the idea of merely continuing supplying Ukraine with weapons they might think America doesnt have the stomach to get involved in a shooting war over Taiwan, because that would involve the inevitability of serious bloodshed clashing with the world’s now largest navy.
On the other hand, supplying sufficient firepower to the Ukies severely limits the few remaining weapons we could deploy against the CCP invasion of Taiwan.
So it’s tricky, isn’t it?
All due to insufficient deterrence in advance.