Posted on 09/26/2022 6:19:17 AM PDT by devane617
Is politics at play with hurricane IAN models?
Why are the ensembles and models all over the map with hurricane IAN? I heard a local wx reporter last night state the models are all over the map and he didn't understand why they were messing with models. As you can see at this link: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L The models are still not consistent and I believe a bit of politics may be at play with this storm. Making DeSantis look bad or unprepared? I live in a very hurricane prone location on the upper Gulf coast—still recovering from Michael — and I watch this stuff very closely. I have never seen models so inconsistent.
The DeSantis theory makes sense, knowing our media.
Also, it just goes to show how crappy climate models are.
Maybe they want to scare a lot more people, so that there is a bigger regional run on food, water, and materials.
Some storms are trickier than others to predict. I tend to stick w/ the Euro for forecast track and the GFS/NHC for intensity and strength. The rest are just used for data and baseline comparisons from storm to storm in my mind.
We should gain a better picture once it leaves Cuba. Cuba always causes uncertainty with storms. It should be clearer Tuesday.
Very well put.
Some models are better than others for some things.
You also look at what model seems to be doing better with a particular storm/situation.
Part of the problem is that the American GFES is an old archaic system and the Euro models are much more updated and are well superior. The Euro and the GFS are giving conflicting information. I watch the Euro tracks, far more accurate
I was also beat up pretty hard by Michael on the gulf coast and don’t want to go through another one like that again. The model with the best past record is ECMWF. It’s predicting Florida west coast north of Tampa. I sure hope it is right.
Funny how they were aware of this storm long before it even formed. A week ago my ten day weather forecast was for rain for this Wednesday and Thursday.
Since when were they ever accurate?
Weather predictions take into account hundreds of variables. Every model uses their own math model and variables.
What are you talking about? The GFS and Euro models are in agreement now.
or
Forecasting is in exact.
So are oil prices
Thank you for providing some info about the tracking models. Do you have any advice as to which hurricane forum is presently the best to follow for those of us who are interested in what the various weatherpeople have to say?
The one I used to follow seems no longer as active, if at all.
*inexact
Sigh
There are dozens of models, most of these model a single characteristic of a tropical system. Like mid level low, or surface low. There are only a couple of models that try to model the entire storm and the environment around it. The Euro and GFS are the most popular. It’s not at all usual for the models to be all over the place early in the development of a tropical system since the storm is weak and easily influenced by it environment.
There was a post last week about a storm hitting the panhandle around the 30th. I don’t remember if Ian was even a tropical wave at that time. We did the trifecta of Charlie, Jeanne and Francis years ago. Cocoa FL in August without power(read AC!) is not for the faint of heart. But guess what. We survived it. When I was a kid (early 50’s)we lived in Tampa and there was NO AC. Just jalousie windows and screens. Of course we trailed the mosquito spray trucks on our bikes too. Maybe that explains a lot................ 😂👌
By far storm2k.org is the best imo. Mike’s weather page on FB (or his website spaghettimodels.com) is good as well. What I like about storm2k is that off duty pro mets chime in as well as certified weather nerds.
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