One Republican senator, Norman Coleman of Minnesota, visited Cuba a few weeks ago in a mind to vote for lifting the sanctions. But after meeting with dissidents, he changed his view. The crackdown in Cuba has also caused slippage of support in the House for lifting the US ban on travel to Cuba, which some economists think could funnel more than $500 million a year into that country. Last month, the House voted 227 to 188 to lift the ban, but support is down from 262 who favored it last year. The president is opposed to such liberalization and, last week, pledged tighter enforcement of the embargo.
"Cuba must change," Mr. Bush told Cuban exiles and anti-Castro groups, and he said he is setting up a government commission to help move Cuba to democracy whenever Castro leaves power. Cuban exiles are a critical Florida voting bloc in the upcoming presidential election.
This was not the softening in the US position that Castro deems essential if he is to ease his terrible financial crisis. One former confidant of Castro says the Cuban leader is now confronted by a dilemma. On the one hand, he could woo Bush by offering a carrot with the concessions apparently being advocated by some of the more pragmatic supporters in his entourage. This could involve going forward with the referendum urged by Oswaldo Paya and the other petition signatories.
The alternative, says this source familiar with Castro's thinking, is to brandish a stick at the US by "raising the ante." He could unleash a flood of Cuban refugees in the direction of the US, thus creating a "massive migration crisis" in the midst of the presidential election campaign. That is a prospect the president cannot afford to take lightly. ***