Blanco and Jindal statistically tied heading into Nov. 15 election.

The Advertiser ^ | October 25, 2003 | John Hill

[Pubbie]

BATON ROUGE

[Pubbie]

The movemont is towards Jindal.

In the previous poll, Jindal was further behind than his in this most recent one.

[AntiGuv]

It's gonna be a barnburner! Actually, all three governor races (KY, LA, MS) look to be going down to the wire so it should actually be an exciting election day this off-year.

A Jindal victory would be most impressive IMHO.

[Pubbie]

In Kentucky, Fletcher is ahead 52-43% :

http://www.bgdailynews.com/cgi-bin/view.cgi?/200310/25+poll20031025_top-news.html+20031025+top-news

[AntiGuv]

Ah, interesting. A SurveyUSA poll conducted 10/18-20 has Chandler narrowing to within 1 point 47-46% and so I'm not sure which one's the outlier. Guess we'll find out soon enough!

[Consort]

I think Jungfrau is a little taller than either Blanco or Jindal, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[AntiGuv]

BTW, there was also a recent Southern Media and Opinion Research poll conducted 10/17-20 that had Blanco and Jindal in a statistical tie at 42.7%-40.5%. Southern Media has easily the best track record in Louisiana polling.

[Pubbie]

The poll I linked for you is more recent than the SurveyUSA poll, however SurveyUSA was the most accurate poll in the Recall Election, which was much trickier to predict than a normal election.

Also SurveyUSA is getting better at polling every year, it seems to me.

[Pubbie]

"think Jungfrau is a little taller than either Blanco or Jindal, but I wouldn't bet on it."

?

[Pubbie]

Which candidate has higher name ID in the state - Blanco or Jindal?

[AntiGuv]

Here's the link to the Southern Media poll:

BayouBuzz

Looks as if Blanco has slightly higher name ID than Jindal (9.1% Don't Know versus 12.7% Don't Know) but this question wording may be misleading.

[Kuksool]

Blanco was the Lt. Gov. for 8 years. She easily has more name ID than Jindal.

It looks all of the Governor races (KY, LA, MS) are tightening up.

[deport]

Which candidate has higher name ID in the state - Blanco or Jindal?

---

My guess is that Blanco would be ahead in that area as she's been the Lt. Gov., served in the state Legislature and elected to the Public Service Commission and it's Chair for two years....

[Pubbie]

Oh and Jindal has 11% of the black vote AND an unusually large amount of blacks are undecided. A prominent La State Democrat should have most blacks willing to show up for her, and they're should be few undecided voters.

Black Democratic Voters that are still undecided usually stay home.

So if Turnout from black democrats is low, and 11% of the blacks that DO show up vote for Jindal, then it's all over for Blanco.

FYI:

http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/index.ssf?/base/news-0/106697699950470.xml


Jindal making inroads among black voters

BOLD gives its nod to Republican


Friday October 24, 2003


By Jan Moller and Brian Thevenot
Staff writers

Bucking conventional wisdom and political tradition, Republican Bobby Jindal is mounting an aggressive effort to win support among African-Americans, a traditionally Democratic constituency that Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco sorely needs on her side in the Nov. 15 gubernatorial runoff.

Using targeted ads on urban radio stations and appeals to black business and legislative leaders, Jindal is making inroads among voters who typically support Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 9-to-1 or greater.

The outreach effort began with a series of phone calls to key legislators even before the votes were counted in the Oct. 4 primary, and continued this week with a commercial on African-American radio stations in which Jindal tells listeners that "a person's heart matters more than his party."

The effort bore its most significant fruit Thursday when Jindal won the endorsement of the BOLD political organization in New Orleans. The group supported Democrat Richard Ieyoub in the primary, but its leaders said an "overwhelming majority" of the group's 44 members voted to endorse Jindal over Blanco. Jindal is Indian-American; Blanco is white.

Blanco is still expected to win the vast majority of the black vote. But sociologist Silas Lee said endorsements such as the one from BOLD might cut into that advantage by chipping away some voters.

To "those African-Americans who were receptive to Jindal but not totally comfortable with supporting him, this does send a symbolic message that it's OK to support him," Lee said. "Now you have African-American political leaders from New Orleans -- a segment of them -- they're out of the closet now."


Rare strategy for GOP

Although it's too early to tell whether Jindal can win a significant percentage of the black vote, analysts say the strategy is uncommon for a Republican in Louisiana and has the potential to make life difficult for Blanco. An independent poll shows Jindal with 11 percent support among African-Americans, which is higher than the single-digit support that Republicans often command from that segment in statewide elections.

"If he can hold on to that and do a little bit better, it puts a lot of pressure on Kathleen to get a lot more white votes," said Bernie Pinsonat of Southern Media & Opinion Research, who conducted the survey.

But others question whether the endorsement will sway many voters to Jindal's side.

"I think it is certainly a positive event for Bobby Jindal, but in order for it to indicate a split in the traditional black Democratic vote it would have to be accompanied by others," University of New Orleans political scientist Susan Howell said. "I don't know that one endorsement from one group will fracture the African-American vote."

Analysts have speculated since the primary that Blanco will need a strong turnout by black voters to prevail in the runoff. Only 18 percent of voters in majority-black precincts voted for Blanco in the primary, compared with 52 percent for former U.S. Rep. Claude "Buddy" Leach and 35 percent for Attorney General Richard Ieyoub, who were far more aggressive than Blanco in courting the African-American vote.

Blanco and Jindal are both socially conservative and differ more in personality and approach than in platform positions.


Blanco 'didn't call' BOLD

Suggesting that Blanco may have taken their support for granted, several BOLD members said Jindal got the nod at least in part because he worked harder at it than Blanco. Former City Council member and BOLD leader Jim Singleton said Blanco hadn't contacted the organization since the primary, while Jindal courted its members heavily.

"She didn't call," Singleton said of Blanco. "Why should I contact her?"

Jindal, in contrast, made persistent overtures to the group that culminated in a lengthy question-and-answer session. "We spent two hours grilling him back and forth, and we liked what he had to say about hospitals, education, neighborhoods, economic development and the LSU medical center," Singleton said.

A Blanco spokesman downplayed the group's endorsement and noted that the support for Jindal was not unanimous among the membership. For example, state Rep. Karen Carter, D-New Orleans, and others back Blanco.

"The majority of the organization opted to go another way than I was advocating for," Carter said. "I'm going to respect the organization's decision, but I am going to do everything I can in furtherance of Blanco's candidacy."


Other groups weigh in

BOLD is one of several New Orleans political organizations influential with black voters. COUP, based in the 7th Ward, has been behind Blanco since the primary. SOUL, which supported Leach in the primary, has not endorsed a runoff candidate but probably will do so in the next couple of weeks, said its chairman, Don Hubbard. The group tends to favor Democratic candidates, Hubbard said.

He said endorsements mean little compared with actual assistance to help a candidate get votes.

LIFE, a political organization of former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial, backed both Blanco and Ieyoub in the primary.

One of Morial's close allies is prominent African-American businessman Stan Barre, who owns Pampy's restaurant and a catering company in New Orleans. Like many business interests, Barre has contributed to both Blanco and Jindal. The candidates' campaign finance disclosures show Barre has given each one at least $10,000 through personal and company contributions. Barre was out of town and could not be reached for comment.


Nagin mulling endorsement

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who backed Democrat Randy Ewing in the primary, has not yet made an endorsement. His aides say he is mulling a decision while waiting to hear the two candidates' responses to a list of proposed commitments to the city. For example, Nagin wants the next governor's help in getting greater state support to pay for state-related functions in New Orleans, such as operations for the district attorney and criminal court.

Jindal said he has been in contact with more Democratic groups and expects more endorsements, but declined to name them.

Jindal spokesman Trey Williams said the campaign's recent effort to reach beyond the GOP base hasn't changed Jindal's core message. But it does mean the pitch has been tailored to fit his expanded audience.

On urban radio stations Jindal tells listeners that many political pundits wrote him off during the primary. "Now those same political insiders are saying I can't get support from African-Americans because I'm a conservative who believes in strong families," he says in the commercial.

. . . . . . .


Staff writer Robert Travis Scott contributed to this report.

[jocon307]

“But what this poll tells me is the outcome of this election depends on who is able to get their voters to the polls on election day,” Ferrell said."

I certainly think he is right about this.

[Pubbie]

Apparently, Blanco didn't concentrate on wooing the various Black Power Brokers in the primary.

Instead she concentrated on winning over Conservative Whites in the primary.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is good news. But please remember one thing: not long ago, we thought that Suzanne Terrell would be the second Republican woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from the deep South (after Paula Hawkins of Florida). Indeed, Kathleen Blanco has a similar political profile and appeal as Mary Landrieau. But the city of New Orleans put Landrieau over the top by giving her 80% in a high turnout. Is there anything that can be done to prepare for that happening again?

[BerniesFriend]

IMHO..blanco is running scared..she is, and has been, attacking Jindal from the get-go..not a strategy by someone who is running ahead..they had a debate last nite and all blanco could do is attack Jindal..even ignoring questions and merely ridiculing Jindal's "youth and inexperience"..perhaps blanco could get to together with lying landrieu and filibuster his election..we all know how democrats hate conservative minorities..

[Pubbie]

Jindal has 11% of the Black vote in a recent poll, which is VERY bad news for Blanco.

In order to beat high turnout in New Orleans, Jindal needs to win a higher percentage of the White vote than Terrel did.

Also chipping away at Blanco's black support (Which Blanco is having trouble energizing) is putting Blanco on her toes.

[Pubbie]

Good, I hope Jindal has her on the edge.