Posted on 07/02/2004 1:44:02 PM PDT by txradioguy
Today a team of Republican election experts is in South Dakota, looking into the circumstances of Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson's extraordinarily narrow, last-minute victory over Republican candidate John Thune.
While it is certainly possible that there were no significant irregularities involved in the voting, some Republicans are puzzled by the way the vote-counting unfolded. Early Wednesday morning, with 99.65 percent of South Dakota's precincts reporting, Thune held a narrow lead over Johnson. It was only when the last three precincts (out of a total of 844) were counted that Johnson finally edged ahead. What has made some Republicans suspicious is that those final precincts were located in a southwestern county that was in the news for allegations of voting fraud in the weeks leading up to the election.
MINUTE BY MINUTE For most of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the election returns looked promising for Thune. At 1:32 A.M. EST on Wednesday, an Associated Press report showed Thune had 134,904 votes to Johnson's 132,648 with 648, or 77 percent, of the state's precincts reporting. At 2.47 A.M., the AP issued another report, this one showing Thune with 153,952 votes to Johnson's 149,789, with 736, or 87 percent, of precincts reporting — a lead of more than 4,000 votes.
At 3:41 A.M., Thune was up 158,331 to 154,602, with 776, or 92 percent, of precincts reporting.
At some point after that, Thune's lead began to shrink. By 6:38 A.M., with 838, or 99.3 percent, of the state's 844 precincts reporting, Thune led Johnson by 166,588 to 165,639 votes. It was close, but Thune was still in the lead by nearly 1,000 votes with just six precincts left to count.
Then the lead narrowed dramatically. By 8:28 A.M., Thune had 166,747 votes to Johnson's 166,559, with 841, or 99.65 percent, of the 844 precincts reporting. Thune was up by just 188 votes with three precincts left to count.
Those last precincts killed Thune's chances to win. At 9:21 A.M., with 843 of 844 precincts reporting, Thune trailed Johnson, 166,707 to 167,252.
Finally, at 10:22 A.M., the last precinct was counted and reported. Thune trailed Johnson 166,954 to 167,481 — a margin of 527 votes. Johnson claimed victory.
It was a stunning finish to a race that was clearly tight but appeared for much of the night to be in Thune's hands. Somewhere in the last five precincts, Thune's Senate hopes disappeared.
QUESTIONABLE PRACTICES The vote counting has attracted the attention of Republicans because the precincts that defeated Thune — the ones that were counted last — were in Shannon County, on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. The county has been the target of intensive get-out-the-vote efforts by Democrats and has reported the largest gain in registrations, 17 percent, of any county in the state. In recent weeks, federal and local authorities have been investigating allegations of fraudulent voting practices related to some of those new voters (along with some in other counties around the state).
In mid-October, the Shannon County auditor said one in ten of the county's new registrations was under investigation for possible irregularities. On October 20, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reported that, "Auditors in 10 counties, all but one adjoining a reservation, have forwarded questionable registration forms or absentee ballot requests to the sheriff or state's attorney for investigation. Of the nearly 400 questionable documents discovered by the auditors, 338 came from Shannon and Pennington counties, where the two investigations into possible voter fraud are under way."
Shannon County went heavily for Johnson — out of 3,118 votes cast, 2,856, or about 92 percent, went to Johnson, while 248 went to Thune (a third-party candidate received 14 votes). That percentage, in itself, might not be particularly unusual; Native Americans in South Dakota vote heavily Democratic, and Johnson is popular with Native Americans. But one thing that has aroused Republican curiosity is the significant increase in the number of votes cast in Shannon County since the last mid-term election, in 1998, in which Sen. Tom Daschle won reelection.
In 1998, there were just 1,559 votes cast in Shannon (that is precisely half the votes cast this year — a statistical nicety that might signify nothing, but might still catch Republican eyes). Of the 1998 total, 1,228 went to Daschle and 239 went to Republican Ron Schmidt (a third-party candidate won 92 votes).
What some Republicans find interesting about the numbers is that the popular Daschle, who won in a landslide statewide, won just 79 percent of the votes in Shannon County — significantly less than Johnson won this year — while Schmidt, who lost by a huge margin in 1998, received about the same number of votes that the well-known Thune received this year. Even though the total number of voters in Shannon County has gone up dramatically, it appears that virtually none of them chose Thune.
The situation might be completely attributable to get-out-the-vote efforts; 17,000 new voters were signed up statewide in recent months, and Democrats were particularly aggressive in Shannon County and on the state's other Indian reservations. But Republicans signed up new voters, too, and now they want to have a look at the county's voting patterns.
Finally, the GOP wants to know more about the timing of the Shannon County returns. Although nothing is set in stone, some observers say it is not usually the pattern in statewide elections for Shannon County returns to be the last counted. Given the fact that the county provided Johnson's winning margin, and given the earlier allegations of corruption, Republicans want to know why Shannon was so late this time.
WHAT TO DO? At this moment, the South Dakota secretary of state's office is finishing its official canvass of the election. That process in effect rechecks everyone's math and comes up with a final vote total for all the races. It is not designed to uncover voter irregularities.
According to state law, Thune is entitled to ask for a recount. On Wednesday, he released a carefully worded statement that suggested he might choose to do so. "If there is a change in the numbers or evidence of irregularities after the official election canvass, I will look at pursuing the next step in the process, which is a formal recount," Thune said:
However, I do not wish to put the people of South Dakota through this process unless it is absolutely necessary. Therefore, if there is no change in the vote totals or any irregularities after the official canvass, we will pursue no further action and the results will stand...No one would be happier than I to see those numbers change as the process continues. However, if the numbers stand, I am prepared to accept the outcome and know that my supporters and all those who have stood with me during this process will accept the outcome as well.
Speaking publicly later on Wednesday, Thune seemed inclined to let the matter drop after the canvass. At this point, it is simply not clear whether he will ask for a recount or take any other action.
Republicans want to be careful in the course they choose. They have already won the Senate, and they do not want to embroil the party in a long, acrimonious fight over a contest that will not affect the balance of power in Washington. In addition, they do not want to embark on a Democratic-style legal battle if there is no solid evidence of fraud. But at this point, they want to know what happened. The circumstances of Johnson's last-minute comeback look a little odd, and Republicans want to learn the story behind the numbers.
Read and remember.
Did they use electronic voting machines with no paper trail?
Something stinks big-time on the res. This same scenario played itself out on the special election for Congress June 1st. Shannon and Todd county voted for Herseth at a 96% rate. Diedrich was ahead til 2AM. Something going bump in the night? It's probably a rat.
Why is it whenever there are allegations of voter fraud it is always against Democrats and not Republicans?
I'm believing more and more the core of the Rats is immoral and vile.
I believe you are correct. I think that the left has thrown out the last of any ethics they ever had.
However, they screwed up the fix. Ha!
Yep. I had the same gut-wrenching feeling that the last two counties were being held while they estimated how many they would need in order to get the narrow win. Also, similarly, the next day they trotted out canards about minorities being disenfranchised and have every media and election official so petrified of being thought racist that they are scared to even investigate. Democrats here had the racist label ready to go and were just waiting for someone/anyone to suggest skullduggery.
What I'm afraid of is this kind of shady stuff going nationwide this year. Especially in light of Kerry already giving away the gameplan by announcing last year they were "training" lawyers that would be deployed to every major voting area in the country to "watch out" for voter fraud.
The nightmare scenario is the RATS trying to steal the vote again this year...not just in one state but SEVERAL states and it will make the delay from 2000 look like a minor thing.
And it will happen almost exclusively in counties with high minority populations, because having that handy to fight investigation is invaluable.
I don't know and it appears that it didn't matter. The SD RATS did nothing to hide their illegal activity and bullyed anyone who tried to call them on it.
It was shameless voter fraud right out in the open with the RATS daring anyone to stop them.
Sometimes you have to be about the Integrity of the process. And shame on those in the administration and GOP who talked him out of it. When is the GOP going to be an organization with Tusks instead of just jowly cheeks?
Regards,
TS
Well you can bet that ANY time you hear a RAT talking about a "fair vote"...what they have in mind is ANYTHING but fair.
Right and wrong, on one hand he should have demanded a full investigation, because I have little doubt irregularities would have been found. On the other hand, he knew that if they weren't found, or if he was unsuccessful at convincing people of his altruistic motives for doing it, it would have damaged his reputation beyond repair. Thune was used to winning by a large margin, and I assume his thinking was to wait and run an election where his margin was beyond the point where fraud could tip it. It's hard to say if his thinking was correct or not.
" On the other hand, he knew that if they weren't found, or if he was unsuccessful at convincing people of his altruistic motives for doing it, it would have damaged his reputation beyond repair"
Not to mention that the RAT attack machine would have been out in full force screaming about another "stolen" election.
And, in addendum, I don't think he should have run for that job. He wanted to be governor, and it's hard to run for something you didn't really want with a passion. That's not to say he wouldn't make a great Senator, but he should have followed his heart, and let the chips fall.
Isn't he (Thune) going after Daschole's job this year?
should have done this that night
IMHO...we should ALL bookmark this story and read it again on election night this year. It's stayed in the back of my mind every since I read it in Iraq last year.
Yes, and I hope he wants it more this time.
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