I use my own "fire index" in our forest.
Pick up a fallen tree leaf, this years, last years, does not matter.
1. Put a lit cigarette lighter to it. If it will not keep burning or smoldering without the aid of the lighter, there no fire danger at all.
2. If once lit the flame goes out, but the leaf continues to smolder, there is some danger of fire. Use extreme caution when burning something.
3. If the leaf continues to burn to completion on it's own once initially lit, then the fire danger is extreme. Have no fires, burn nothing, avoid unintended ignition sources such as engine heat and exhaust, cigarettes, etc in the forested areas.
The Dakotas, one expects to be dry. Different story here in Wisconsin where you'd expect it to be wet/ saturated this time of year. Very dry--WI DNR has issued a 37 county outdoor burn ban which encompasses most of the state.
Fortunately, they had rain while I went through, but I take it, it wasn't enough.