Public Support for Bush Slips to New Low (AP spin)

Yahoo News ^ | 11/4/2005 | WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

[jveritas]

The pollsters can cheat the most in their selection of independents. They chose the independents from mostly dark blue counties.

[jveritas]

That is a sarcastic article.

[dvwjr]

Don't feel so bad. It is just an AP/Ipsos 'pollitorial' after all...

Just to add to the media polling bias, here is the recent history of the "ever-reliable" AP/Ipsos polls (January - November 2005) and their political Party ID sample composition for each poll. The AP/Ipsos polls push Independents to identify with either Republicans or Democrats, only the 'hard-core' remain as self-identified 'Independents'...

This is an mixed ADULTS and Registered Voters poll, not just registered voters. Note the consistant gap in the party ID between Democrats and Republicans, strange given the the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls identified 37% Republicans, 37% Democrats and 26% Independents among the voting American public. The Republicans have achieved voter self-indentification parity with the Democrats for the first time since the late 1920s.

This series of AP/Ipsos poll result on Presidential job approval and the American public views on the 'direction of the country' was as always based on a skewed demographic sample that averages 41% Republican, 49% Democrat and 10% Independent composition. I think that when the AP poll fails to get the results they desire, they 'play' with both the registered voters composition and vary the un-registered voter portion of the poll sample. Since the Registered voter portion of the poll averages around 78% and the 'breathing' voter averages around 22% you can see they have quite a bit of "statistical slack" to play with to get the results they require...

Presidential Approval Ratings
AP/Ipsos monthly Polls
(n~1,006 ± 3.1%)

	2-Nov	5-Oct	16-Sep	6-Sep	August	July	June	May	April	March	February	January
Republicans	40%	40%	41%	42%	39%	42%	40%	42%	41%	39%	39%	43%
Democrats	49%	48%	49%	48%	48%	51%	50%	49%	48%	47%	52%	49%
Independents	11%	12%	10%	10%	13%	7%	10%	9%	11%	14%	9%	8%
Total:	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Registered	80%	78%	77%	76%	79%	77%	80%	79%	82%	78%	76%	80%
Breathing	20%	22%	23%	24%	21%	23%	20%	21%	18%	22%	24%	20%
Total:	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Approve	37%	39%	40%	39%	42%	42%	43%	47%	44%	48%	45%	49%
Disapprove	59%	58%	57%	59%	55%	56%	55%	51%	54%	50%	54%	49%
Total:	96%	97%	97%	98%	97%	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%	99%	98%

Note: The AP/Ipsos polls are published in PDF format and become unavailable after one month. You must be a 'premium' member to access those PDF files on their web site. No consistant links are provided for that reason.

Source: AP-Ipsos Poll, October 31- November 2, 2005 Project #81-5139-66

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

[HitmanLV]

It's not gloom and doom, and its not lame.

A President with low public confidence is limited in what he can do. That does the country a disservice.

If you think the President can continue to be an effective leader with sub 40% approval ratings indefinietly, who else in the last 50 years has managed to do so?

The silver lining, of course, is that the GOP's deficiencies hasn't really translated to popularity for the dems. We can't count on that forever.

The last time on FR that the polls didn't matter, and were all wrong, etc etc, the american public backed Clinton in the impeachment situation. The polls were right, Freeper dismissal of them was wrong.

Don't do it again.

[HitmanLV]

Being smart and mindful of the political climate beats denial any day of the week.

[Blue Turtle]

In general, I am quite sick of the 24 hour attacks...it is beyond ridiculous. And as an American I am offended.... leave my President alone!

[HitmanLV]

I'm not attacking him. And the attacks are annoying, you are right.

But that's not to say they won't take their toll. A year ago the President boasted about having political capital and using it. Now, it's all gone and he has nothing to show for it.

Not seeing that clearly is denial. Identifying it is not an attack.

[FourtySeven]

What about jveritas' points about the polls being skewed, and not surveying likely voters? These seem like reasonable objections to me.

I personally think that, of the people that matter (likely voters), Bush's popularity remains split, just like the last election showed.

[DesertDreamer]

I didn't intend to offend anyone. I'm guessing you're not familiar with the satire of Scott Ott.

[section9]

The Administration has hit its low watermark. Part of the result of these polls is the flagrant push polling, but let's face it, Bush's nomination of Miers needlessly alienated his base. It was beyond stupid.

The nomination of a superb judge such as Scalito shows the way back. It's a return to the quality that was exemplified by Roberts.

What you're seeing is the result of several months of combined terrible news. The three hurricanes, the Fitzgerald investigation, and the Miers fiasco combined with a feckless White House communications strategy to place this President in a hideous position.

And Andy Card was no help at all.

Bush has returned to his base. That's who will begin to help him out. The quality of that Alito choice will reflect well on Bush. Improved economic numbers will help, as well. And let's face it, a troop drawdown would work wonders going into next year's midterms.

Donkeys are stupid. This is EXACTLY the right time for Bush to have these numbers.

I suspect Bush has some very significant personnel changes coming up. Stuff that will rock the world.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[HostileTerritory]

he has nothing to show for it.

That's not true. Congress passed the Bankruptcy Reform Bill.

[italianquaker]

exit polls say kerry is the next president,now what did this poll have to say?

[HitmanLV]

I tried to explain to him that party loyalty is fluid, and not still. Times and situations change to compel people from self-identifying as Republicans to Independents, for example, or from Independents to Democrats, or from Democrats to Republicans.

Given the GOP's poor track record and image lately, it wouldn't surprise me if more people are self-identifying as Democrats and Independents, and not Republicans. The polls SHOULD reflect that.

That being said, I do think the polls are still slightly biased against the GOP. But across numerous polls, the President's approval is around 40%. Any individual poll has its problems, but look at them all and the same story comes across. The most likely than not reason is that the president isn't very popular.

A 35D-35R-30I formula to go by sounds thoughtful, but not if the current breakup is closer to 40D-25R-35I, for example. The breakup changes - ignore it at your own peril.

[italianquaker]

fake polls dont equal real voters ask kerry and those exit polls

[HitmanLV]

Like I said, he has nothing to show for it.

That bill passed 74-25 in the Senate, and 302-126 in the House. It was going to pass. This wasn't a wise use of capital.

[HitmanLV]

We can fix the image problem, but not by pretending it doesn't exist.

[jveritas]

The polls were very wrong in 2004 when the exit polls showed a Kerry landslide and in 2002 when the polls showed the Democrats are going to win the Senate and few seats in the House, they lost seats in both the House and the Senate.

Look at the polls from 2002 showing up to october of that year that the Democrats were going to win:

http://pollingreport.com/2002.htm

Look at the 2004 elections and see how many polls were showing that Kerry was going to win the elections:

http://pollingreport.com/2004.htm

[italianquaker]

But listening to fake polls like the exit polls might fix problems that only exist for the msm and the dnc not us

[tioga]

All these polls and no one ever calls me.