Posted on 11/04/2005 10:18:16 AM PST by manwiththehands
Indeed, much can happen in a year. And exit polls are notoriously unreliable.
None of that has anything to do with opinion polls as an illustrator of opinion at a given time. If the election had been held in February 2004, Kerry would have beaten Bush by a decent margin. Then America got to know Kerry. The February 2004 polls weren't wrong, they just weren't measuring the election outcome.
I'm confused as to what you're arguing. Do you think Bush is at the top of his game right now? Do you think he is popular and widely respected by most Americans? Do you think people weren't upset at the feds after Katrina?
Do you believe Bush is widely popular right now? Do you think the Harriet Miers incident was a triumph that made people think more highly of him?
Public belief of anything the MSM puts out slips to new low.
Party ID of AP/Ipsos poll respondents:
Democrat-49% Republican-40% Independent 9%
On section D2, the poll also indicates that 13% of the respondants were unemployed. Last I heard there was 5% unemployment nationally. I'm sure they were evenly split between the Unemployed For Bush, and the Unemployed Against Bush.
Great point.
What i dont beleve are the fake polls and I see strong support for the prez as it relates to Alito, he learned his lesson well about Miers, dont try to satisfy the msm dems or fake polls take care of the base and they will take care of you
The 2004 election poll at your link is just one exit poll (look again). I explictly said any one poll is suspect, but that a trend can be seen by looking at several polls.
The 2002 polls you cite show advanatges to both the GOP and the Dems. And the spread isn't very wide. The polls aren't wrong - some are just more right than others.
This isn't very meaningful at all.
Now you have a situation where numerous the polls consistently show the President's approval around 40%. They simply can't all be wrong and have to reflect some sentiment in the electorate.
But if those poll reflects dynmaics that cost us political power, shouldn't that be addressed.
Or do we want to get spanked like 1998?
Note the pollsters are not really asking those questions about satisfaction with democrats.
THe democrat strategy, with MSM helping them, is to spread doom and gloom. That has worked, with everybody upset with the direction of the country, and the economy, and everything else.
This malaise has hurt all politicians, but the dems hope that next year they can somehow overcome their negatives.
Wrong again. The majority of polls in the link I showed showed that in 2002 Democrats had an advantage over Republicans and more so in the polls of registered voters than likely voters. These majority of these polls were terribly biased and wrong.
Yes. And I don't doubt the president and the GOP will bounce back in the next year. There is no reason they shouldn't.
you have to look at the numbers and they tell the truth not the msm lies
Who cares? Nobody cares, half the people do not know of the Miers incident and they do not know who "Scooter Libby" is. Americans are asleep. They do not care to even know the threat of Militant Islam. I love my President and all I care about is national security.
John Roberts as Chief Justice, the Energy Policy Act, CAFTA, a rising representative democracy in liberated and sovereign Iraq with two hugely successful national elections and the passage of a constitution, Syrian troops pulling out of Lebanon, democratic movements growing in the Middle East, signed a bill that will put an end to junk lawsuits against the firearms industry, John Bolton appointed Ambassador to the UN, Judge Priscilla Owen confirmed to Fifth Circuit, Patient Safety and Quality Improvement Act of 2005, Class-Action Fairness Act of 2005, Alito nominated to USSC, thousands of terrorists dead, captured or running for their lives ...
Yeah, what a whole lotta nothing that slacker of a prez has to show for the past year.
Which Massachusetts are you living in?
I know better than to assume the rest of the country thinks the same way as everyone I meet in this state, but even filtering that out, people I know in more conservative parts of the country are feeling uneasy.
Look at the last polls for each of them again. They are all over the place. Some show dem advantage, some show gop advantage. Most are very close.
Bush's current ratings aren't close.
Congratulations, you're part of the 37-39%.
It used to be they asked those side questions to make sure their polls weren't biased. Now they don't care.
No rational pollster would publish the results of a poll where factual questions yielded results wildly at odds with reality.
If you got 13% unemployed in your poll, you oversampled people that are going to be upset with the direction of the country.
That said, do we expect republicans to still show up as being upset with Bush after another month or two, as we get over the Miers thing and the congress actually takes action on lowering the budget (if ever so slightly). Won't Bush's recent push through Chertoff on immigration help a little?
Much of what you cite have nothing to do with the judicous use of the political capital. Bush's biggest gamble was Social Security reform - that never gained traction and pulled him down.
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