U.S. curtailed on reforming Iran

newsday.com ^ | January 14, 2006, 9:08 PM EST

[strategofr]

...despite all the tough talk in Washington and Europe last week about Iran's nuclear program, the reality is that the diplomatic options are limited and, in part because of Iraq, the military option is almost nonexistent...

The military option...is now all but impossible because of the problems in Iraq, Middle East specialists agree. Not only is the U.S. military tied down in and depleted by Iraq, but Iran has penetrated Iraqi police, paramilitary forces and Shia militias so thoroughly that it could easily make the situation in Iraq untenable for U.S. forces.

...The Israeli government has been particularly worried about Iran's growing nuclear potential, especially in light of recent calls by Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for Israel to be "wiped off the map."

But Israel does not believe Ahmadinejad has support for his new hard line against Israel from the rest of the Iranian government, and despite what the Israeli government may say publicly, is satisfied for the moment that Iran is increasingly isolated and Israel has no intention of taking action itself, according to a source with access to the internal Israeli assessment. At any rate, the source said, Israel is constrained from taking military action by the limited size of its air force and the enormity of the target area...

[strategofr]

I was wondering if the Iranians might be trying to provoke an attack by Israel to consolidate domestic political support.

It seems that China has provoked Japan into a stronger defense posture for this type of reason. The Iranians probably figure the US won't act anyway. They could lose some nuclear assets, but if they are really desperate at home, this could be worth it.

[strategofr]

ping.

To exit from my Ping list, just send me one request to that effect, public or private.

[ARCADIA]

Not only is the U.S. military tied down in and depleted by Iraq

That is not the case at all; but, people do seem to like hearing themselves say that.

[JasonC]

"...untenable for U.S. forces"

People really do not understand the power of our military, or the elaborate humanism and restraint we show in our wars these days. As a fact, if Iran and its supports tried to fight our men in Iraq, they could shoot down the lot of them in a month or less.

[dighton]

The military option, always difficult because of Iran's vast size and the difficulty in destroying all of its many nuclear sites, is now all but impossible because of the problems in Iraq, Middle East specialists agree.

If Mahmoud and friends wish to comfort themselves with that thought, who are we to deny them?

[strategofr]

"As a fact, if Iran and its supports tried to fight our men in Iraq, they could shoot down the lot of them in a month or less."

I agree---if they did not use the civilian population as a shield.

[Gordongekko909]

Not only is the U.S. military tied down in and depleted by Iraq

Even if it were true, I'm sure that the MSM and libs would be terribly upset to hear it. Because, y'know, we would be able to use military force against Iran if only we weren't in Iraq. Yessir. And the libs would be totally in support of such action, but we can't do it because of Iraq. Yeah, that's the ticket.

[JasonC]

You still don't get it. We can shoot right through them too. The only reason we don't, is we are not in the least bit threatened, so we don't have to, and we can afford to look to accomplishing other and better political goals.

[DTogo]

Yeah, the entire US Air Force and Naval Aircraft are too busy flying all over Iraq fighting... who?

What a load.

[TADSLOS]

Not only is the U.S. military tied down in and depleted by Iraq,

LOL! BULL****.

but Iran has penetrated Iraqi police, paramilitary forces and Shia militias so thoroughly that it could easily make the situation in Iraq untenable for U.S. forces.

Then, why haven't they...?

[Highest Authority]

Looks more like an article from Pravda.

[Cobra64]

"Not only is the U.S. military tied down in and depleted by Iraq."And these are military planners? /sarcasm

[John Lenin]

Ahmadinejad is a dead man walking. His neighbors will allow the US to take him out. A serious, serious, miscalculation on his part.

[EricT.]

Not only is the U.S. military tied down in and depleted by Iraq

What a steaming load of crap.

[unseen]

Yes but what we have to worry about is this crap:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/01/14/wiran14.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/01/14/ixworld.html

Its most remarkable manifestation came with Mr Ahmadinejad's international debut, his speech to the United Nations.

World leaders had expected a conciliatory proposal to defuse the nuclear crisis after Teheran had restarted another part of its nuclear programme in August.

Instead, they heard the president speak in apocalyptic terms of Iran struggling against an evil West that sought to promote "state terrorism", impose "the logic of the dark ages" and divide the world into "light and dark countries".

The speech ended with the messianic appeal to God to "hasten the emergence of your last repository, the Promised One, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace".

In a video distributed by an Iranian web site in November, Mr Ahmadinejad described how one of his Iranian colleagues had claimed to have seen a glow of light around the president as he began his speech to the UN.

"I felt it myself too," Mr Ahmadinejad recounts. "I felt that all of a sudden the atmosphere changed there. And for 27-28 minutes all the leaders did not blink…It's not an exaggeration, because I was looking.

"They were astonished, as if a hand held them there and made them sit. It had opened their eyes and ears for the message of the Islamic Republic."

Western officials said the real reason for any open-eyed stares from delegates was that "they couldn't believe what they were hearing from Ahmadinejad".

Their sneaking suspicion is that Iran's president actually relishes a clash with the West in the conviction that it would rekindle the spirit of the Islamic revolution and - who knows - speed up the arrival of the Hidden Imam

[RightWhale]

Did Murtha or Cronkite write this?

[unseen]

Not true. We have to worry about the world opinion and other geopolitical ramifications. China is a "friend" of Iran so is Russia. These countries will not sit by and let the US control more than half of the Gulf oil. No matter how clean our motives are. Therefore to do anything in IRAN we need the blessings of Russia and China to some extent. Also Europe is a factor here. Same reasoning. ESP. France and Germany. Add into this the amount of money it would require and that most of our debt is financed by China who would stop financing our debt and cause a steep steep decline in the Dollar we are kind of boxed in at the moment. If we were not boxed in on the world stage do you really think Iran would be saying and doing what it is doing? They are not stupid. We should not disregard our enemies so lightly.

[JasonC]

We don't need anybody's blessings, and cynical great powers don't care about our humanitarianism or lack thereof anyway. Its for EU and us. And yes Iran is most definitely stupid, as stupid as heck. They are gambling that we care more about elections here. It has nothing to do with foreign pressures, it has to do with Dems. But if they or anyone else makes it a straight up fight, trying to use real force rather than our lack of interest, they just lose outright. Wouldn't even be hard, wouldn't even kill that many civilians. The second time we just fired they'd all clear off for good, and the fighters would have no one to hide behind. We put up with harder conditions because we are in no danger of losing conventionally, and so see no point in taking gloves off. If we did, they all lose. It doesn't matter how POed they are, our power does not depend on their good graces. As for dollar silliness, do you think China wants to be an island and never see a single export leave its shores again, without being seized at sea? We have all the high cards. Everyone else has only one card - Dem defeatists and our indifference. Which only works as long as they stay under the radar.

[ez]

Their sneaking suspicion is that Iran's president actually relishes a clash with the West in the conviction that it would rekindle the spirit of the Islamic revolution and - who knows - speed up the arrival of the Hidden Imam

What in God's name is the Hidden Imam?

[ez]

I found this. The Gate of Occultation? Similarities to the emergence of the antiChrist could be disturbing.

The core of the Shi'ite religious world view is the Hidden Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, "The Guided One." While the stories of the first eleven Imams are historical in nature, the history of the twelfth Imam is mystical and miraculous. Born in 868 AD / 255 AH, Abu'l-Kasim Muhammad (which is the name of the Prophet himself), and when Hasan al-Askari, the Eleventh Imam, died in 874 AD / 260 AH, the seven year old boy declared himself to be the Twelfth Imam and went into hiding. The Shi'ites believed that he hid himself in a cave below a mosque in Samarra; this cave is blocked by a gate which the Shi'ites call Bab-al Ghayba , or the "Gate of Occultation." This is one of the most sacred sites in Shi'a Islam, and the faithful gather here to pray for the return of the Twelfth Imam.