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Poll: CA State political landscape in flux (VERY interesting poll results)
SFGate ^ | 2/4/06 | John Wildermuth

Posted on 02/04/2006 6:13:10 AM PST by AZRepublican

The growing power of Latino voters, the state's stark east-west social divide and the skyrocketing number of absentee voters have changed California's political landscape, a new Field Institute study shows.

Voters already are seeing the results of those changes. The barrage of political mail has started arriving earlier, and partisan TV spots are interrupting programs long before election day. Latino voters are seeing an explosion of Spanish-language political advertising, while candidates are using very different messages to attract votes in Oakland than they are in Riverside.

Although these trends have been visible in recent voting, their long-term effects have for the most part been ignored by politicians and consultants whose vision stretches only as far as the next election.

"We're looking at things that are new and different, issues that weren't here 10 or 15 years ago,'' said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, who issued a report Friday on what he called voting megatrends. "They are transforming California.''

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: absenteevoting; aliens; california; californiapolitics; campaign2006; immigration

1 posted on 02/04/2006 6:13:12 AM PST by AZRepublican
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To: AZRepublican

I can attest to the mail part. I got, literally, 3 pieces of mail a day from each candidate in the local mayor's race. This went on for weeks, and the cost must have been sky-high if they were papering the whole city with that stuff.


2 posted on 02/04/2006 6:18:00 AM PST by John Jorsett (scam never sleeps)
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

To: William Creel

>I can't believe that Latinos would turn on the GOP just because of that
>proposition. It wasn't even that harsh.

I can't believe the federal govt. would open the nation for such a situation to occure to begin with. The parties have completely destroyed this countries idenity and ethnic makeup over confusion of our history and constitution.


4 posted on 02/04/2006 6:27:19 AM PST by AZRepublican ("The degree in which a measure is necessary can never be a test of the legal right to adopt it.")
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To: AZRepublican

Check out Mexifornia by Victor Davis Hanson.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1893554732/qid=1139064877/sr=1-8/ref=sr_1_8/002-0155754-9269653?s=books&v=glance&n=283155


5 posted on 02/04/2006 6:54:56 AM PST by GeorgefromGeorgia
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To: AZRepublican
Can't blame it all on the Feds. Texas, which also borders Mexico, has gone almost the opposite of CA - once a blue state and now red.

The difference is the local & state gov't IMO. CA, especially, Northern CA has always been the home of raving liberals since the 60's. Don't forget Jerry Brown was it's popular governor at one time.

6 posted on 02/04/2006 6:58:26 AM PST by Alissa
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To: Alissa

I was a young teacher in N CA when R Reagan was governor and it was against the law to mention communism in the classroom. Things change, and they will change back someday.


7 posted on 02/04/2006 7:47:53 AM PST by ClaireSolt (.)
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To: Alissa

Yes Texas was a Blue state , but that doesn't mean that it was a Liberal Blue state . Texas was a state where the Democrats were more Conservative than modern day Republicans. I think we'll start to see a trend of Texas being more competitive for the Liberals as their Hispanic population increases.
My other concern is the influx of illegals that are being registered to vote which will, as in the past, serve the Democrats well .


8 posted on 02/04/2006 8:25:26 AM PST by FRONTLINER (Crush the Left !)
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To: AZRepublican

I've never been willing to write this state off completely. I find most voters are dedicated members of the "muddled middle" with a range of political views from across the spectrum. The trick is finding candidates who have a narrative and the personality to fire up the base as well as moderate voters and get at least neutrality or only mild bias from the MSM. But our pick of candidates in this state has been very weak.


9 posted on 02/04/2006 8:48:47 AM PST by Wiseghy ("You want to break this army? Then break your word to it.")
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To: Alissa

Good morning.

Northern California will save the west.

For every statist ex-New Yorker living in San Francisco and Marin, there is an ex-liberal living out in the sticks north of Santa Rosa and west of Williams whose kids will vote Republican someday soon.

The thing to fear is that they will have to vote in Spanish. No problema, we'll just cut the Hopland bridge and make that our southern border.

Michael Frazier


10 posted on 02/04/2006 9:08:01 AM PST by brazzaville (no surrender no retreat, well, maybe retreat's ok)
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To: Wiseghy

Yes, I agree. The Republican candidates in California have been very weak indeed. Why is that, I wonder? Bill Simon was really hard to get fired up about, let alone wish in office.


11 posted on 02/04/2006 9:49:18 AM PST by bboop (Stealth Tutor)
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To: Alissa

The real problem is , of course, for those of us who live in theSoveiet Republic of Ca,.is the Dem. Legislature. In my lifetime, I am now 67, I will never see a Pub. Leg. So,poll results , unless a new type of fair redistricting takes place, are always interesting but obiated by this fact. Dems outnumer Pubs 2-1. The safe districts are really safe. The Dems are increasingly left and N. Ca. is simply populated with nutters, pro-abortion, anti- military, pro-gay, anti-trad. marriage, tax and spenders and have the black voters, about 50 % of Hispanics in their pockets. Asians are in real flux. Pubs have not leaders except Tom McClintock. Arnie is either in one more term or out and that is the end of his influcence. The university libs are still outnumbering conservs on campus though this is getting more even in SoCal. When I see real conserv movements in all the racial and economic groups willing to throw the Dem bums out, I will get excited about SF poll results.


12 posted on 02/04/2006 11:30:52 AM PST by phillyfanatic
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To: William Creel

They haven't. What we're seeing now are no longer Mexican-Americans dominating the California political scene, but Socialist invaders from Mexico.

It's *not* about skin color; it's about ideology, and President Bush is a fool to lump all Hispanics together on the basis of their skin color.


13 posted on 02/04/2006 11:40:30 AM PST by dangus
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To: Alissa
Jerry Brown has always been a (relatively) conservative-albeit heterodox-member of the Dem. Party, at least by today's standards.

Most of the criticism directed at him when he was mayor of Oakland was based upon his adoption of innovative, conservative solutions to urban problems.

He's not as dull as his father Pat, but he isn't that much different, politically speaking.

14 posted on 02/04/2006 12:23:26 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham ("Liberals aren't neighborhood people." -Daniel Patrick Moynihan)
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To: ClaireSolt

Technically it is still against the law to promote communism in California schools.

EDUCATION CODE
SECTION 51530



51530. No teacher giving instruction in any school, or on any
property belonging to any agencies included in the public school
system, shall advocate or teach communism with the intent to
indoctrinate or to inculcate in the mind of any pupil a preference
for communism.
In prohibiting the advocacy or teaching of communism with the
intent of indoctrinating or inculcating a preference in the mind of
any pupil for such doctrine, the Legislature does not intend to
prevent the teaching of the facts about communism. Rather, the
Legislature intends to prevent the advocacy of, or inculcation and
indoctrination into, communism as is hereinafter defined, for the
purpose of undermining patriotism for, and the belief in, the
government of the United States and of this state.
For the purposes of this section, communism is a political theory
that the presently existing form of government of the United States
or of this state should be changed, by force, violence, or other
unconstitutional means, to a totalitarian dictatorship which is based
on the principles of communism as expounded by Marx, Lenin, and
Stalin.


15 posted on 02/04/2006 1:05:58 PM PST by old republic
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To: old republic

That's interesting. I'll bet you could create some openings if you enforced that.


16 posted on 02/04/2006 2:37:56 PM PST by ClaireSolt (.)
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To: bboop
Bill Simon was really hard to get fired up about, let alone wish in office.

He was the hand picked choice of the purist conservatives at FreeRepublic and the one who won the Republican primary.

Arnold Schwarzenegger only got the governorship through a special recall election. He didn't have to go through a primary.

The conservatives vote in the primaries and the Republicans they choose can no longer win in this state with its changed demographics.

Now that the press and big Democrat ads have demonized Gov. Schwarzenegger, and he has alienated mainstream Republicans by not giving them or President Bush any deference, he has lost his once wide popular support and is pretty much powerless now. The conservative purists never liked him, so he has never had any traction with them.

Pleasing his wife has cost him the one base he could have counted on. If he had embraced his fellow Republicans and thrown us just a few more bones, we would have fought by his side. He didn't want us as much as he wanted some chimeral wide spread love. Now he has neither.

He didn't understand how vicious the Democrats are when it comes to rocking their hold on power.

17 posted on 02/04/2006 3:24:21 PM PST by patriciaruth (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1562436/posts)
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To: brazzaville
No problema, we'll just cut the Hopland bridge and make that our southern border.

Put me down for Chief Pest Exterminator in OUR new state. I want to spray Humboldt County with my New and Improved Blue Pesticide...

18 posted on 02/04/2006 5:36:47 PM PST by tubebender (Always remember that you're unique. Just like everyone else...)
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To: old republic

There may be some who do in CA, but I don't know any around my area who do.


19 posted on 02/05/2006 4:38:32 AM PST by moog
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