Posted on 03/29/2006 8:30:34 PM PST by LdSentinal
SAN JOSE, Calif. - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a solid lead over either Democratic challenger in a head-to-head battle in the November election, at least among those who have a preference, but 30 percent of likely voters remain undecided, according to a nonpartisan poll released today.
The survey, by the Public Policy Institute of California, is wide ranging but a theme emerges: The news is good, or at least better, for the governor on virtually all fronts - and it's clear his two Democratic challengers have a lot of work to do.
One-on-one, Schwarzenegger holds an 8 percentage point advantage over former eBay executive and current state Controller Steve Westly and a 12-point lead over Treasurer Phil Angelides.
Just earlier this month, a Field Poll showed that Angelides was even with the governor and Westly actually had a 4-point edge.
Larry Gerston, political science professor at San Jose State University, said the PPIC poll's most telling result is how far Angelides and Westly lag behind.
"After two months of a rather massive television campaign they find themselves this far behind the governor," Gerston said. "Their messages really haven't penetrated."
Which one of these two the governor will face in November is still undecided - with emphasis on undecided. When pollsters asked likely Democratic primary voters to choose between Westly and Angelides, the result was a statistical dead heat with 23 percent for Westly and 22 percent for Angelides. But 55 percent remain undecided, less than 10 weeks from the party primary.
There is one curious distinction between Westly and Angelides. Westly does better with women, and Angelides polls better among men. Voters also perceive Angelides as slightly more liberal than Westly but the majority say they don't know how to characterize either candidate.
Not so of Schwarzenegger. Only 10 percent said they didn't know where the governor stood and 63 percent placed him ideologically at or near a California politician's sweet spot: the center, with 28 percent defining him as "middle of the road" and another 35 percent labeling him "somewhat conservative."
The governor's approval rating also is inching up, from 35 percent in the February PPIC poll to now 37 percent - and the number climbs to 47 percent among likely voters.
Perhaps more telling, 71 percent of Californians said they like Schwarzenegger, including 57 percent of Democrats.
"It's reasonably good news for the governor on a number of levels," said Mark Baldassare, the PPIC's statewide survey director, noting that Schwarzenegger's approval rating among likely voters is now slightly higher than that of former Gov. Gray Davis before he won re-election in 2002. "It seems many Californians continue to be pulling for the governor."
Gerston was skeptical.
"There's nothing satisfying about knowing roughly one in three people think you're doing a good job," he said. But after being beaten badly in the special election in November, voters may still not like Schwarzenegger's policy, "but as much as they don't like the governor, they like the other guys less."
Even when the news seems bad for the governor - 53 percent said they don't favor his policies - there is a silver lining: A solid 69 percent like the governor's most significant policy push for this year, his $222 billion plan to build schools, unclog freeways and shore up levees.
Support for the plan may help explain why the governor's numbers rose even as the most significant development since the last PPIC poll in February was the governor's failed attempt to get the bond package on the June ballot.
Some have blamed the governor for not rallying Republican legislators to back his proposal, but that's apparently not the way the public sees it, Baldassare said, since it's the legislature's approval rating that has fallen - from 29 percent in January to a near 5-year low of 25 percent in this recent poll.
"It shows the public rewards leaders," said chief Schwarzenegger campaign strategist Matthew Dowd. "If you lead and say `this is what we want to do,' even if you don't succeed in the short run, the public will support you. The public supports infrastructure improvements and they see the governor leading."
The poll also surveyed issues. Likely voters said they care most about education and public schools (23 percent). Immigration issues (legal or illegal) have jumped to second at 14 percent - 10 full points higher than when the PPIC asked voters to rank issues before the 2002 election - and it is now the most important issue in the state among Republican likely voters at 22 percent.
Voters also were asked in detail about the governor's infrastructure plan and how to pay for it. Fifty-nine percent support the governor's original plan, unveiled in his January State of the State speech, to issue $70 billion in bonds to pay for his infrastructure plan. However, when given choices, more voters prefer paying for new schools, roads, etc. out of the general fund (32 percent) than by issuing bonds (25 percent).
The survey also continued to show California's dissatisfaction with President Bush - only 34 percent approve - and revealed an especially skeptical view of federal lawmakers. Nearly 40 percent of Californians believe that most members of Congress are corrupt. That said, likely voters approve of their own representatives in Congress (59 percent), as well as Sens. Dianne Feinstein (59 percent) and Barbara Boxer (50 percent).
The PPIC contacted 2,002 California adult residents for the survey, including 1,490 registered voters and 1,008 likely voters. The interviews were conducted in English and in Spanish from March 15-22. The margin of error is 2 points for the entire sample, 2.5 points for registered voters, 3 points for likely voters and 5 points for likely Democratic primary voters.
I want to know where the conservative candidate is! I know, I know, there isn't one, but I wish the hell there was. I do not like being in the position of voting for one the world's biggest rinos or a demorcrat, not much to choose from. Maybe I will go third party with the rest of the 30 percent undecided among likely voters!
Ill be voting for Arnold. There is little else to do. Plus it will piss of the union thug moonbats if he gets re=elected. Arnold has kept some liberal nonsense at bay that Im sure would have went through if a democrat was Governor. Gay marriage and car tax. though Im not sure the car tax thing is gone for good.
The best outcome for the November election is for the GUb and Tom to win, and then for the Gub to resign the day after he is sworn in so someone with a clue and without ties and sympathy to much of the Left's agenda can to go to work on getting this state turned around and out of the iceberg fields that surround this ship of state.. jmo
"I want to know where the conservative candidate is!"
The conservative candidate emigrated to Utah.
If more were thinking like you... : ) <<< me
The conservative is running for Lt. Governor.
Thirty percent of likely voters in California don't even know what day it is.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
a. They like the guy; and
b. You can't beat a somebody with a nobody (which the CA GOP remembers well from the last Gubernatorial race - not the recall, but the Davis re-election debacle)....
Arnold is the best we can hope for out here, he will win with somewhere between 53-55% of the vote, and CA will keep slouching towards Gommorah...though a bit slower than usual....
I think there are two things at work here:
a. Even the CA crackpots know that 'liberal' is a dirty word so they dissemble; and
b. some of them appear to actually believe that they are moderates (which, if they are drawing a comparison with, say, the average SF voter might be understandeable in a relative sense.....)
There are fundamental problems with that sentiment.
The car tax: 1) Isn't gone. 2) Californians still pay it in full.
Gay marriage: 1) The Austrian, in a land mark decision, approved full civil and legal rights to domestic, homosexual partners. 2) Approved legislation that forces the recognition of the sanctity of homosexuality in California's primary and secondary public schools.
Ping!
So, in other words, they approve of the corruption?
Hello Alia!
You're just waking up and I'm just hittin the hay...
Thanks for the ping.
Still a very long way to go until November.
We must destroy all hopes of Dem victories, by supporting our guys in the trenches.
Amen.
Sleep well and awaken refreshed, Doodlelady!
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