Poll: Goldwater leads Munsil, other AZ GOP gubernatorial contenders (Goldwater Next AZ Gov)

The Business Journal ^ | 4/12/06 | Mike Sunnucks

[AZRepublican]

A new poll shows Don Goldwater leading the list of Republican candidates for governor by a substantial margin, including conservative rival Len Munsil.

Goldwater is the nephew of the late Barry Goldwater, a longtime U.S. Senator from Arizona and the 1964 Republican candidate for president.

A poll of likely GOP voters by SurveyUSA shows Goldwater with 39 percent.

That is well ahead of other gubernatorial candidates.

Conservative advocate Len Munsil, viewed as a front-runner by many party leaders and business lobbyists, received just 10 percent.

Scottsdale businessman Mike Harris received 9 percent and former Santa Cruz County attorney and state judge Jan Smith Florez got 5 percent in the poll. Thirty-one percent in the survey were undecided.

Goldwater recently picked up the backing of state Rep. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, a leading conservative immigration hawk.

Harris has garnered the backing of two groups looking to curtail illegal immigration and deny state benefits and services to illegals -- Arizona Border Watch and Protect Arizona Now. Harris also has the backing of former state Senate president John Greene, who dropped out of the governor's race earlier this year.

General election polls show substantial leads for Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano over Goldwater, Florez and Munsil.

Napolitano, a moderate Democrat, is generally popular with the business community and none of her potential GOP rivals have made much headway with the private sector.

Munsil, the former head of the conservative Center for Arizona Policy group, has the backing of Congressmen Trent Franks, Jeff Flake, Rick Renzi and John Shadegg.

There has been some speculation that Florez would soon drop out of the GOP primary race but her campaign manager Mark McPhilimy dismissed that talk and said she is moving forward in the race.

[Mikey_1962]

Au H2O

[LS]

How do you figure, given the polls show Napolitano with a lead over him?

[inkling]

It's all name recognition.

[BMC1]

If we work very hare, we can get rid of Napolitano.

[AZRepublican]

I have no idea which poll they are referring to there, most likely a Dem poll. The ones I have seen have her and Don in a dead heat which is bad news for her because he isn't campainging yet. Goldwater will beat her in a general election.

[BMC1]

That was supposto be hard not hare.

[DejaJude]

Au H2O

I got it.

[Luke21]

Brother Janet is no moderate. She's a commie who talks out of both sides of her red mouth. But her water is carried by "People's Republic," "Soviet Citizen," and "Red Star," who gush and spin anything she does.

[drjimmy]

I have no idea which poll they are referring to there, most likely a Dem poll. The ones I have seen have her and Don in a dead heat which is bad news for her because he isn't campainging yet. Goldwater will beat her in a general election.

Rasmussen, which is not a Dem poll, has Napolitano up 20 points on Goldwater, 54% to 34%. What polls have you seen that have them in a dead heat?

[JohnBovenmyer]

Is this Goldwater like his uncle's '64 greatness or is he like the sad McCainish shadow of that greatness at the end of his uncle's career?

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

If Munsil's viewed as the front-runner from the GOP and business groups, then he's not a conservative.

[AZRepublican]

Rasmussen, which is not a Dem poll, has Napolitano up 20 points on Goldwater, 54% to 34%. What polls have you seen that have them in a dead heat?

Zogby/WSJ has them in a dead heat. When you look at any poll at this time pay attention to the questions asked. Most all of them lump Goldwater with all the other Candidates. When all is said and done and its just polls with Goldwater v. Nappy will they start to reflect Nov. From now till Nov Janet will be vetoing more immigration bills! Bottom line, forget about the polls and pay attention to what Janet is doing and wait till there is a two candidate race in the stretch.

[DejaJude]

Zogby/WSJ has them in a dead heat. When you look at any poll at this time pay attention to the questions asked.

Have you noticed any polls or articles about Goldwater (or even the illegals marching) in the rag? The only one I saw was, "do you think protesting is educational for the students", or something along those lines. Did I miss it, or are they afraid to ask? I haven't seen any real coverage of those running against Janet in the AZRepublic. Have you?

[fieldmarshaldj]

From what I understand, it's pretty close to the Cow Palace grandeur of '64.

[adam_az]

"Goldwater will beat her in a general election."

From your lips to God's ears!

I dearly hope so.

Goldwater has the fire in his belly it will take to beat that evil woman.

[drjimmy]

Zogby/WSJ has them in a dead heat.

Not so much anymore. According to the most recent Zogby poll, released April 4, Napolitano is up 47% to 36% on Goldwater (compared to 47% to 45% last September). In fact, Zogby characterizes it as a "decisive lead" and notes that Goldwater's main selling point, name recognition appears to be fading.

[lawdude]

Where can I find a Bio on GOldwater?

[AZRepublican]

In fact, Zogby characterizes it as a "decisive lead" and notes that Goldwater's main selling point, name recognition appears to be fading.

Don't you get it? Need I spell it out for you? All that has been entered into the arena so far is the name "Goldwater" and look at what that name polls alone. Immigration is a BIG issue in AZ and Goldwater is as tough as they come on it while Nappy just looks or ways to avoid the issue while sounding tough on it at the same time. With Goldwater no one knows who he is or were he stands on the issues, so at this point that will be a big advantage for any incumbent at first.

Once Goldwater becomes the chosen *candidate* and attracts the funds to mount a campaign other factors other than name recognition comes into play...one being immigration. No one issue would not be enough by themselves, but when combined in Nov with name recognition Nappy will be in a world of hurt and she knows it. Best she can do is enjoy the poll numbers why they last in the here-and-now because they will be totally diffent in the home stretch.

[AZRepublican]

I don't think there is one yet because the AZ GOP have been ignoring him so far. They are stupid peoplle because it will take Goldwater's name reocgnition on top of the issues to defeat Janet. The other candidates won't enjoy a boost in name recognition in the ballot box. This is why we need to run Goldwater because name + issues = defeat for Dems.