Afghan minister says Osama is in Pak

AP via CNN-IBN ^ | 1 hour ago | None

[ketelone]

Associated Press Posted Saturday , May 13, 2006 at 18:31 Email Print Berlin: Osama bin Laden likely is living in Pakistan, but that country's efforts to catch him have been ''half-hearted'' so far, Afghanistan's foreign minister was quoted as saying on Saturday. ''According to all that we know, he actually is living in Pakistan, close to the Afghan border,'' Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta was quoted as telling Germany's Bild am Sonntag in a preview of an interview being published on Sunday. ''Our neighbor could surely catch him and put him on trial,'' he added, according to the newspaper. ''But attempts to do this have to our knowledge always been half-hearted.'' Earlier this month, a top US counterterrorism official, Henry Crumpton, said that parts of Pakistan are a ''safe haven'' for militants and the al-Qaeda leader was more likely to be hiding there than in neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan has dismissed assertions that it is not doing enough to track down militants. A senior US security official said earlier this month that most of the al-Qaeda and Taliban leadership had found safe haven in Pakistan's lawless tribal belt that borders Afghanistan, and that bin Laden was probably living in Pakistan. The remarks were angrily rejected by Islamabad.

[bwteim]

Or OBL is in Afghanistan or in....ZZZZZZZZZZZ.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta

What's in a name?

[bwteim]

PS, the ZZZZZZZZZZZ's were directed at the story ;)

[coconutt2000]

Interesting idea...

What motives does Pakistan have for prolonging the hunt for Osama?

Since initiating the war on terror, Pakistan has benefited heavily from American foreign aid.

Does that aid dry up if our interest in their part of the war on terror dries up?

[LSUfan]

I think Osama is dead.

Bin Laden has purportedly released a few audio tape in recent years. Many media outlets claim that this is proof that Bin Laden is in charge of Al Qaida and leading the struggle against the United States.

I am not so sure.

I am not convinced that it is in fact Bin Laden's voice on the tapes. And even if it is, I am not convinced that the evidence is compelling that the tapes were made recently.

Here is a link to a complete transcript of the recent "Bin Laden Tape" released by Al Jazeerah...

Transcript of "Bin Laden Tape released by Al Jazeerah
http://www.militantislammonitor.org/article/id/1561

---

Now on to the questions raised. First, is the voice Bin Laden's? As usual, very quickly after the tape was released, the CIA certified the voice as Bin Laden's. Interestingly, however, the FBI is not so sure...

Bin Laden Audiotape Surfaces
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,182153,00.html

This is not the first time that other analysts have disagreed with the CIA's analysis of voices on Bin Laden audio tapes. Way back in 2002, the first time Bin Laden released an audio tape, as opposed to his usual video tape, a highly respected, independent Swiss lab claimed that they were 95% certain the voice was NOT Bin Laden's. This came AFTER the CIA had quickly certified the voice as that of Bin Laden. Interestingly, since that initial analysis, the Swiss lab has not analyzed any more Bin Laden audio tapes...

Here are some old links to stories about the Swiss firm's rejection of the CIA voice analysis...

Bin Laden Tape 'Not Genuine' (2002)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2526309.stm

Bin Laden Tape 'Faked' (2002)
http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid=1485474

Swiss won't verify Bin Laden tape (2003)
http://www.swissinfo.org/sen/swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid=1627978

I am obviously not a voice analyst. But I find it odd that Bin Laden seemed to be in love with the camera for years and then, suddenly, in 2002, he switched to audio tapes. Why? One explanation is that you can fool people a lot easier with an audio tape than you can with a video tape...Most of us do not have access to voice recognition software and could not use it if we did. But almost all of us have VCRs. And if someone LOOKS different, it is much more noticeable to the untrained eye. And most of the time, Bin Laden is talking to the untrained. That certainly was the case with these latest audio tapes.

Bin Laden never appears on video talking about recent events, but Zawahiri and even Zarqawi do.

My personal opinion is that it is not Bin Laden and these audio tapes have not been Bin Laden for a long time because Bin Laden is dead.

I believe we should start saying we believe OBL to be dead. The worst that could happen would be he would start taking chances to prove otherwise and we could wack him.

[Tracy V.]

I believe we should start saying we believe OBL to be dead.

Great post, very informative. I have read much of this before and happen to reflect your same doubt as to the validity often tireslessly stressed that the monster breathes still. There is, also in my opinion, a grey area as to a lack of solid facts either way.

But what I agree with you most is your last paragraph, beginning with the sentance in italics above...I have so often thought this to be a brilliant strategy. Megalomaniacs have a very, very hard time being ignored or thought out of power. Push them into proving their presence and they often times expose themselves out of foolish vanity.

[sgtyork]

Additionally, I think the tone has really changed. Lately Mr. Bin Laden sounds like a Democrat. I can't help but think that the CIA has appropriated the bin laden franchise and is gradually changing the message. In a few years, bin laden will be the USA's biggest cheerleader.

[SevenMinusOne]

Bin Laden never appears on video talking about recent events, but Zawahiri and even Zarqawi do. My personal opinion is that it is not Bin Laden and these audio tapes have not been Bin Laden for a long time because Bin Laden is dead. I believe we should start saying we believe OBL to be dead. The worst that could happen would be he would start taking chances to prove otherwise and we could wack him.

You are wrong on all accounts - UBL is very much alive and being hunted by brave warriors risking all 24/7 -

Additionally it is myth that UBL used to put out all sorts of video tapes - The reality is the first two videos of UBL seen by the public after 9-11 were not released by UBL...but rather recovered by U.S. soldiers - And even prior to 2001 UBL was never one to put out videos on any regular basis.

Additionally once U.S. soldiers had boots on the ground in Stan UBL was much more concerned with staying alive then putting out any propaganda. However with that said, UBL has put out several videos and apprx 15-16 audio tapes in the past 4 years. The latest video where UBL talks he most certainly does talk about current events. From the 2004 Presidential race, to Iraq, to Qatar -

Furthermore the lack of numerous video tapes in and of themselves proves nothing - There are plenty of ways to gather Intel on one's existence outside of the need for video tapes - (nor should one speculate simply because a video tape hasn't found its way to the MSM...that this video tape doesn't exist!....sometimes they simply don't make it to their intended destination?).

You mention even Zarqawi has put out tapes? - Yes, ONE, in the past 3 years which shows himself. And this tape was only released because our SOF had already recovered a copy of this tape days earlier in a successful raid!.....thus al Qeadea went ahead and released a version of the tape they had a secondary copy of - thus finally showing a picture of Zarqawi's face for the first time since being in Iraq.

Did the lack of any video of Zarqawi for 3 years prior prove he wasn't alive? Of course not.

As for suggesting we should start saying "we believe UBL is dead".....the problem with that is we know he is not. Everyone from the CIC to the NCO's hunting his as$ know this.

Lastly the reality is time was on UBL's (and Zawahiri, Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and a few other HVTs) side in the short run - Eking out survivals in the lawless Stan/Pak border regions - Hell in NWFP of Pak we are talking 44,000 square miles of the most rugged terrain on earth. The Stan / Pak border runs apprx 1,500 miles! (the distance between Washington D.C. and Denver - just to get a clue of the size we are dealing with - The region includes every landscape from desert to snow-capped mountains.

But that variable of time is slowing starting to tilt back toward our favor now. And number of these HVTs won't see a sunrise in 07 -

[ketelone]

Well its not a bad idea to claim OBLs dead... as long as the wrong people dont get lulled into complacency.

I agree with coconutt2000's analysis that there are vested interests in some quarters to keep this hunt for Bin Laden alive for as long as possible.

Consider for instance:

As long as Pakistan is a "frontline" ally of the US in the GWOT, the following happen:

1. Musharraf is supported, protected by the US from the fanatical fringe in his country and his army.

2. Pakistan continues to get arms, equipment, and money, for free, which it can use against India.

3. We know that this would not continue after the WOT is finished. As soon as the Afghan-Soviet campaign ended Pakistan was forgotten.

4. Anyway, the US is not very pleased with Pakistan or Musharraf, as was evidenced by President Bush's comments during his recent visit to Islamabad. This further encourages the notion that once Pakistan has done the work its been commissioned to do, the US will want to have nothing more to do with it.

So, its quite likely that the Paks are trying to milk this cow for all its worth.

[LSUfan]

There is no doubt that much of the rhetoric coming from Zawahiri and "Bin Laden' reads like a memo from Moveon.org, an article on CommonDreams or a post on DemocraticUnderground.

And if you read Ahmadenjad's letter to Bush, it was clear they gleaned much of it from the anti-war movement here.

[Maceman]

Like bin Laden is even important anymore, especially after al Qaeda's devastating and humiliating defeat in Iraq.

[LSUfan]

I am sorry, but I believe that is incorrect. OBL was doing interviews with ABC News way back in 1998. And AQ most certainly released a video of OBL and Zawahiri together in the months after 9-11.

The video you refer to did not refer to recent events. If you carefully examine the content, there was no definitive reference to recent events, just generalizations that could have referenced several events.

Moreover, there is much disagreement about OBL's whereabouts and status. Numerous intelligence sources have told Rep. Curt Weldon, Kenneth Timmerman, Richard Miniter and Al J. Vinter that OBL was in Iran, not Pak or Afghanistan.

And FBI spokesmen have even publicly speculated that OBL might be dead. Then there is the Swiss lab analysis. If OBL is alive and well, why does he need an imposter to record the tape?

[RedRover]

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

[EQAndyBuzz]

"I believe we should start saying we believe OBL to be dead."

We should say he died of AIDS in an Iranian hospital.

[expatguy]

Hamas also benefits from foreign aid.

What they gain??

Pakistan is not our ally. Musharaff is.

[cpdiii]

"He is dead Jim."

"He is not pining for the fjords. He is bereft of life, singing to the celestial choir, no more, this is a dead ----ing terrorist."

My apologies to Star Trek and Monty Python.

[gotribe]

We should say he died of AIDS in an Iranian hospital.

Or from complications resulting from a combination of trichinosis and AIDS.

[ketelone]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3832037.stm

Important enough for this...

[sam_paine]

Osama is in Pak,
And Ozma is in Oz.
But no one ever asks,
"Where the hell is Boz?"