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Will Rudy make us real? - Importance of state primary could rest on Giuliani
Ventura County Star ^ | March 28, 2007 | Timm Herdt

Posted on 03/28/2007 5:03:16 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

With considerable frequency, given that the boss is a megamillionaire celebrity with a resort home in Idaho, A-list invitations everywhere and a private plane at his beck and call, the staff of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issues one-sentence advisories to the press Sunday nights or Monday mornings: "The governor has returned to the state."

For the next 10 months, those who work for a few other politicians might have to adopt that routine as well. Rudy Giuliani's staff, for instance, or Hillary Clinton's, or John Edwards', or Barrack Obama's or John McCain's.

They, too, will return to California again and again and again.

The prospect of receiving all this attention from the likely next president of the United States (whoever he or she may be) has many observers in the state giddy with a sense of inflated civic pride that one might ordinarily expect of, say, Kansans excited about a visit from the secretary of agriculture.

It's as if they don't remember how, for his eight years in the White House, Bill Clinton behaved as if he were an adopted son.

Still, the idea of having influence in the making of a president can be heady, especially to the current crop of term-limited legislators who weren't around during the Clinton years and now suddenly find themselves being courted by people who could possibly score them some pretty decent invitations to an inaugural ball Jan. 20, 2009.

But will these new suitors still love us in December?

A good case can be made that, by then, they will have returned to their first loves — Iowans and New Hampshirites, knowing that, if they can woo them, the rest of the country will fall in line. After all, those states will be picking winners in January, while Californians will have to remain coy until Feb. 5.

At a conference last week in Sacramento, some political experts told the Californians in the crowd what they didn't want to hear: that California, mighty as it is, will still be a wallflower at the presidential primary dance.

But what if, mused Roger Simon, chief political columnist for the online political magazine Politico, the world's most famous New York Yankees fan decided to bet his candidacy on cleaning up on what some are calling Super-Duper Tuesday?

That day is Feb. 5, the day when California, New York and at least a dozen other states will hold their primaries.

What if Rudy Giuliani decides to keep his powder dry until then?

The reason he might, Simon explained, goes like this: The Iowa Republican Caucus is typically dominated by anti-abortion activists, and since Giuliani is pro-choice he might decide it's better to more or less ignore Iowa than to compete and lose.

New Hampshire might be tainted by the presence of a neighbor in the GOP field, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In South Carolina, cultural conservatives rule the roost — and the twice-divorced Giuliani, who went to stay at the home of a gay friend after his second wife kicked him out of the New York mayor's mansion, doesn't exactly qualify.

So what if Giuliani decided, rather than to fight against the odds in the early states, to idle his campaign at first and then kick it into gear Feb. 5? He will surely win New York. If he could add California that night for a bicoastal large-state sweep, he might be the one candidate who could shun the conventional primary strategy.

"Rudy Giuliani has a chance to put California in play that way," Simon said. "Your best hope is if that's the way Giuliani goes."

There is evidence to suggest that could, in fact, be the Giuliani game plan. He was the only major GOP candidate to attend the state Republican Party convention last month, and he's been back twice since.

Sunday in Orange County, he gave a videotaped interview to Jon Fleischman, the publisher of the California-based conservative political blog the Flash Report.

"I love campaigning here," he gushed to Fleischman.

Social conservatives, of course, have in the past dominated Republican primaries in California as well. But Giuliani has a couple things going for him in California that he doesn't have in, say, South Carolina. He has the devoted and enthusiastic support of his longtime friend Bill Simon, which gives him credibility among California conservatives. And because of Schwarzenegger, conservatives in this state have learned a pragmatic lesson: They like to win, even if it means they have to grumble about a few policy disagreements.

And at the moment, a lot of California conservatives believe Giuliani can win. There's a very good chance that if he decides to base his nominating strategy on tipping his NYFD baseball cap at California Republicans, they'll swoon.

— Timm Herdt is chief of The Star's state bureau. His e-mail address is therdt@VenturaCountyStar.com.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: billsimon; california; conservativesforrudy; democratlandslide; electionpresident; elections; giuliani; gungrabber; julieannie; liberalposeur; politics; primary; rino; rudy; schwarzenegger; simon
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....Giuliani has a couple things going for him in California that he doesn't have in, say, South Carolina. He has the devoted and enthusiastic support of his longtime friend Bill Simon, which gives him credibility among California conservatives....
1 posted on 03/28/2007 5:03:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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***.... "I can't imagine in the history of war anybody announcing a timetable to run out and retreat," he said at an appearance at a delicatessen in this suburb just over the George Washington Bridge from New York City. "I think it's a terrible mistake. To put up the white flag and announce a timetable for retreat seems like a very bad strategy to me."

Giuliani's remarks came on the heels of the Senate narrowly passing a nonbinding timeline that would have troops home by next March. Bush is likely to veto the resolution.

"I hope that the president vetoes it," Giuliani said. "The full focus of our energies should be on supporting the troops that are there and trying to act against terrorism, trying to create an Iraq that acts as a bulwark against terrorism instead of a headquarters for terrorism."

He also didn't mince words when asked what he would do as president if Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continued to flirt with developing nuclear weapons. "What I would do is make clear to him that he's not going to have nuclear weapons. ... Containment may have worked with the Soviets, but as far as I can recall, the Soviets weren't planning to come here and kill us. They didn't blow up the World Trade Center twice. We've got a different kind of enemy here. ...".......***

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-usrudy285148210mar28,0,577326.story?coll=ny-nationalnews-print


2 posted on 03/28/2007 5:13:30 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

California conservatives=not your run of the mill conservatives from the hinterlands!


3 posted on 03/28/2007 5:25:26 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek (President Fred Thompson will finally give the University of Memphis the respect that it is due!)
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To: mariabush

***...At this early juncture, one prediction, suggested by the classic liberal tradition, seems reasonable: The competition and conflict that is developing among the leading conservative candidates should prove invigorating, not only for conservatism in America but for the nation as a whole.***

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3323.html


4 posted on 03/28/2007 5:30:14 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Agreed!


5 posted on 03/28/2007 5:51:04 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek (President Fred Thompson will finally give the University of Memphis the respect that it is due!)
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To: Blackirish; Jameison; Sabramerican; BunnySlippers; tkathy; veronica; Roccus; Jake The Goose; ...

(((((RUDY PING)))))


6 posted on 03/28/2007 6:05:46 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: mariabush
California conservatives=not your run of the mill conservatives from the hinterlands!

Yep, they're a special breed of conservative.


7 posted on 03/28/2007 6:08:53 AM PDT by veronica (http://www.cadillaccicatrix.com/)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
A liberal fait accompli using the tiny Blue state GOP parties to try to capture the nomination will be an invitation for Red states to disengage from the GOP in 2008.

If he wins it by excluding the traditional primary states, he'd better not come looking for votes in conservative states in the fall.
8 posted on 03/28/2007 6:10:37 AM PDT by George W. Bush
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To: veronica
Yep, they're a special breed of conservative.

You mean the liberal breed of "conservative". At least try not to be dishonest so early in the day.
9 posted on 03/28/2007 6:11:47 AM PDT by George W. Bush
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Rudy can play all the Primary games he wants. The fact remains that Hillary is cleaning his clock in New York state. There are now TWO POLLS showing that, and Hillary's lead is INCREASING (from 10 to 12%) to boot.

And no POTUS has won without carrying his home state. So Rudy can pick and choose all the liberal state primaries he wants, it doesn't make a dime's worth of difference. Without New York he is t-o-a-s-t. Right President Gore.

Play the Electoral College 'game'. Give Rudy all the states on each coast, even the Carolinas - except NY, that's Hillary's. Go ahead, it ain't pretty. It's a Dem landslide.

(And don't be cheating by giving Rudy any Blue states like IL or Michigan, as that possibility is absurd.)

10 posted on 03/28/2007 6:27:49 AM PDT by Condor51 (Rudy makes John Kerry look like a Right Wing 'Gun Nut' Extremist)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
There's a very good chance that if he decides to base his nominating strategy on tipping his NYFD baseball cap at California Republicans, they'll swoon.

That, I can believe. There are some actual conservatives in California, but sadly outnumbered.

And I can well believe the liberals will not go down easy this election. They see this as their big chance to sieze control of the Republican Party.

11 posted on 03/28/2007 6:30:42 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

So California will select the next Republican nominee? We're screwed.


12 posted on 03/28/2007 6:52:10 AM PDT by claudiustg (I curse you, Rudy of the Giuliani!)
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To: claudiustg

Tom McClintock?


13 posted on 03/28/2007 6:55:10 AM PDT by JohnnyZ ("I respect and will protect a woman's right to choose" -- Mitt Romney, April 2002)
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To: JohnnyZ

Arnold.


14 posted on 03/28/2007 7:00:10 AM PDT by claudiustg (I curse you, Rudy of the Giuliani!)
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To: Condor51

Great post.


15 posted on 03/28/2007 7:44:00 AM PDT by George W. Bush
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
....Giuliani has a couple things going for him in California that he doesn't have in, say, South Carolina. He has the devoted and enthusiastic support of his longtime friend Bill Simon, which gives him credibility among California conservatives....




Rudy is really gaining ground in the large number of true "conservatives" who are supporting and endorsing him. Very encouraging. He will do well in Oregon too, because he's a moderate.
16 posted on 03/28/2007 9:47:54 AM PDT by KATIE-O (Rudy Giuliani - Restoring Optimism in '08)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

"But Giuliani has a couple things going for him in California that he doesn't have in, say, South Carolina. He has the devoted and enthusiastic support of his longtime friend Bill Simon, which gives him credibility among California conservatives. And because of Schwarzenegger, conservatives in this state have learned a pragmatic lesson: They like to win, even if it means they have to grumble about a few policy disagreements. "

Exactly!


17 posted on 03/28/2007 10:52:27 AM PDT by FairOpinion (Victory in Iraq. Stop Hillary. Stop the Dems. Work for Republican Victory in 2008.)
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To: areafiftyone

Thanks for the ping! Where you been? I'd missed them the past few days.


18 posted on 03/28/2007 10:54:00 AM PDT by Spyder (Dysrudybot - someone stricken with HGS, or Hate Giuliani Syndrome. Incurable.)
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To: Spyder

Sorry I've been away for a couple of days. But I have now made arrangements and another Freeper has the ping list and will do it at night or if I am not on. The list is so big that it now will have 4 handlers!


19 posted on 03/28/2007 10:59:37 AM PDT by areafiftyone (RUDY GIULIANI 2008 - STRENGTH AND LEADERSHIP)
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To: Condor51

"And no POTUS has won without carrying his home state. So Rudy can pick and choose all the liberal state primaries he wants, it doesn't make a dime's worth of difference. Without New York he is t-o-a-s-t. Right President Gore."

Wrong. Guiliani consistently leads in the polls in PA, OH, NJ, CT, RI, and NJ. That's more than enough to do it. He may not lead in NY, but he would force Hillary to spend big bucks to defend her home turf--same goes for CA which he has a good chance of taking. Ditto for OR. No other Republican candidate has this kind of electoral clout.


20 posted on 03/28/2007 2:13:27 PM PDT by writeblock
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