A Sober Assessment of Afghanistan (50% spike in attacks in April)

The outgoing top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan said Friday that attacks increased 50 percent in April in the country's eastern region, where U.S. troops primarily operate, as a spreading Taliban insurgency across the border in Pakistan fueled a surge in violence.

In a sober assessment, Gen. Dan K. McNeill, who departed June 3 after 16 months commanding NATO's International Security Assistance Force, or ISAF, said that although record levels of foreign and Afghan troops have constrained repeated Taliban offensives, stabilizing Afghanistan will be impossible without a more robust military campaign against insurgent havens in Pakistan.

The Taliban is "resurgent in the region," particularly in sanctuaries in Pakistan, and as a result "it's going to be difficult to take on this insurgent group . . . in the broader sort of way," McNeill said at a Pentagon news conference.

Clashes in the east pushed U.S. troop deaths in Afghanistan in May to 15, and total foreign troop deaths there to 23, the highest monthly figure since last August.

Indeed, comprehensive data released by the NATO-led command show a steady escalation in violence since NATO took charge of the Afghanistan mission in 2006, spurred in part by more aggressive operations by the alliance and most recently by U.S. Marine battalions in the heavily contested southern province of Helmand. ISAF troops in Afghanistan increased from 36,000 in early 2007 to 52,000 now, while the Afghan army grew from 20,000 to 58,000 soldiers.

Overall violence has increased and attacks have grown more complex, according to the data and U.S. military officials. The number of roadside bombs increased from 1,931 in 2006 to 2,615 last year. Attacks peaked during the months of the warm weather fighting season, with more than 400 in the peak month of 2005, more than 800 in 2006 ....

Kazai has just issued a statement that may - finally - have the greatest effect in turning this tide.

Last weeks little ambush on the ANA troops on the Kunar border - either by the Paki troops giving the talis a heads up or directly attacking the ANA themselves - has, it would seem, backfired.

The Pakis screamed bloody murder at the US because their air cover to save the ANA troops killed Paki military - (well known to be infiltrated with/simpatico with, the talis) turned back on them as we had video record of the whole thing - that shows we didn't attack their outpost - but it looks like they left their outpost to attack the ANA troops - and that's how they got killed - on video - oops.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gFzfzO1J3TT_eqpmvsK7pYkw3H4gD91AEAHO0

"Karzai said Afghanistan has the right to self defense, and because militants cross over from Pakistan "to come and kill Afghan and kill coalition troops, it exactly gives us the right to do the same."

About damn time!

The most porous stretch of border between the infested Paki area and Afghanistan is along Afghanistan's Kunar Province in the isolated northeast mountains of the Hindu Kush.

Those mountains and valleys provide taliban entry in and out of the Kunar like water through a colander. The pakis let them flow into the Kunar at will to strike the ANA and our troops and then to scurry back to safety in Paki.

This has been devastating and results in our troops having to, effectively, fight the same battles with the same miscreants (actually, the Pakis and other countries there call the terrorists "miscreants" - sounds more benign, but look it up...it really fits) over and over, day after day.

The Kunar is so isolated from the rest of Afghanistan, they don't even speak Afghani, but Pushto. Our troops up there have been in the worst fighting of the entire WOT...intense and daily. Most of them are isolated on tiny fire posts they literally pickax out of the mountain side, 2 1/2 hours of hiking with 100 lb packs, (it's in the high 90's now and will get MUCH hotter) like mountain goats, away from the OPs. (no running water or power, no showers for weeks at a time, almost daily fire-fights )- all the time, totally vulnerable to ambush and snipers.

The Korengal Valley of the Kunar is the worst - aka "Taliban Central"...The Sky Soldiers of the 173rd have been carrying the heavy load - and the heavy losses.

It's about damn time someone starts to shut off the swinging door to/from Pakistan.

Good on Kazai! (I'm sure this was all worked out with us - and is the perfect solution. How can Pakistan argue that Afghanistan doesn't have the right to protect it's borders and it's troops? If the edict came from us directly, there would be a hue and cry, not only from Pakistan but the miscreants sympathizers, aiders & abettors in DC.

This could be the most far reaching move of the entire war in Afghanistan - Dear God, let it be so.

Today, Kazai is my hero.

This brings up a very fundamental issue about the global nature of terrorism and how we fight it. Most of the country, including the left, agreed that we needed to go into Afghanistan when we did in response to 9-11. Had we stopped there Afghanistan would have become the focus of foreign terrorists and radical Islamic fundamentalists.

The roadside bombs, etc. would have been a recurrent issue in Afghanistan, as they have been in Iraq. For all we know, Iraq might have been one of the countries exporting foreign ‘fighters’ to Afghanistan.

My point is that this has always been a more global fight. Irrespective of whether one believes that going into Iraq was the right thing to do, it is highly unlikely that concentrating our efforts in Afghanistan would have ended the global threat.

Ultimately, to win this fight will require us to do many things, including doing all that we need to do to keep our own country strong (e.g. promoting education and innovation, maintaining our edge in technology, rewarding innovation (including those innovations that will help us become energy independent), and having the kinds of national debates and discourse that foster pride in who we are, etc.). We, and the rest of the world, also have to find some way to stop the hatred that fuels violent radical fundamentalism from being passed from generation to generation. As long as hate is taught in Madrassas and elsewhere, we will have an ongoing battle.

Might want to read the whole thing rather then cherry pick certain data out. We are operating much more aggressively so of course attacks are going up.

Bingo! - Reality is Stan has seen "centuries" worth of progress in many respects (in less than 6 years).....Stan is night and day compared to 01 - Of course the MSM look for meaningless stats that in and of themselves are meaningless (without context).

The Taliban (Pak-Tali) and AQ are out in the Mtns, but they have been completely routed/defeated as a viable controlling / Gov't influencing force of any kind.

Yes, the next phase of Stan will push us into the Pak border regions (if the Pak Tali choose not to force out the AQ elements within them......which they could in a drop of a hat if our pressure becomes to much.....Or they may choose to fight...and die) but that is where this next phase goes (18-24 months later than it should have started, probably, but so what, that is life).

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