"Unexpected."
Posted on 08/20/2011 2:25:17 PM PDT by ex-Texan
The recent financial slump has caused economists to take stock of the possibility of a “double dip” recession. Most of them, however, won’t admit that the economic contraction that began in late 2007 is still underway and, worse still, has a few more years to run, according to the Kress cycles. * * *
The 120-year cycle, along with its various component cycles, will bottom in late 2014. The final “hard down” phase of this mega-cycle began in 2008 with the peak of the 12-year cycle. Currently only the six-year cycle – one of the smallest cycles in the 120-year series – is ascending, but once it has peaked in a few weeks the market will enter a cyclical configuration that hasn’t been seen since 1892. That year was the last time the U.S. entered a cyclical “vortex” as the 120-year cycle caused a collapse in asset prices and led to a major economic depression. * * *
It’s amazing when you consider that the recent market collapse in less than a month completely destroyed eight months of recovery work courtesy of the Fed. As of this writing, the NYSE Composite Index (NYA) is more or less back to where it started in November 2010 when QE2 began.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
*Ping* !
great post !
and even a non-economist can understand,
that if you subtract the 4 or 5% currency inflation,
from the 2% GDP growth,
you end up with quarter after quarter of non-stop recession.
TARP just temporarily masked it, by increasing Goverment.
adjusting for QE2 and currency inflation, we ARE in a depression.
bump.
"Unexpected."
Ketnsian economists can not intellectually afford to acknowledge that we are in a worldwide economic depression, because to do so causes their loudly pronounced claims of being able to “manage” economies through artificial stimulus and other fiscal prestidigitation to immediately evaporate.
Chavez Emptying Bank of England Vault as Venezuela Brings Back Gold Hoard
Chavez wants all $ 11 Billion of gold he deposited in England back in Venezuela immediately. No false QE 3 dreams for Venezuela. Both Chavez and his mentor Castro want to turn the screws violently on the U.S.
Are there still any dummies posting on FR that claim the Fed is a government agency and NOT a private bank that is owned by a banking cartel ____ ? Are there still any idiots posting here claiming that more QE will help turn our economy around ___ ?
I certainly do not buy into the idea of 120 year cycles. What is causing our problems is primarily uncertainty, caused at the highest levels of our government. No one is willing to make critical decisions when the basic rules of the game are subject to change by bureaucratic whim form the ruling party.
Yep
They will eventually recognize the 2nd Great Depression as having commenced on January 20, 2013.
“White House Science Adviser Advocated ‘De-Development’ of the United States”
The director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy advocated ‘de-developing’ the United States in books he published in the 1970s.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
By Christopher Neefus
http://www.cnsnews.com/node/51702
I don’t think unemployment will get below 8% until 2014.
Depressions, including the Great one are not recognized or named by politicians or official economists until after they are done.
This isn’t the Great Depression, it’s the Great Oppression. It encompasses the — at worst deliberately, at best recklessly ignorant, negligent and incompetent — destruction of wealth for the purpose of “fundamentally transforming” this country.
Read: imposing Socialism.
I wonder at what point those in the Great Depression knew and/or accepted they were in the Great Depression.
That said, they did not have the benefit of hindsight, as we do now.
So, if we’re in a Depression (and it certainly seems so), does this change the “cure” in any way? Or is this seen as a cycle that is impervious to substantial modification, regardless of “certainty” and policy prescriptions?
“I certainly do not buy into the idea of 120 year cycles.”
Agreed, regular business cycles are not an inevitable consequence of time unless human wisdom and stupidity that affect governance is cyclical.
The only “business cycle” that actually exists is driven by the annual change of seasons.
The fact that people are repeatedly stupid is NOT a cycle.
This is not a depression! It is just unexpected!
Now can I have a $50K/yr job as an economist??
The Obama Depression! Lest the left tag the next president with this moniker.
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