Posted on 08/17/2018 8:29:49 AM PDT by SES1066
3 in 4 Chance Democrats win control (74.6%)
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Personally, I think they are just doubling down on the stupid.
But we’ll see.
The kiss of death...
What did Silver say two years ago?
Pretty close to his 71.4% odds that Hillary would win posted on 11/8/16 (the same day she lost bigly).
Is he also making odds and taking bets?? I’ll take $1000 at 4 to 1 that the Republicans not only remain in control but pick up at least 5 seats.
> Nate Silver AND almost every other pollster was so disastrously wrong in 2016 does not mean that they will be wrong this time. <
Agreed. The Democrats were lazy and complacent in 2016. That won’t happen this year. Ballots will be stuffed, and deceased voters will vote.
The only ray of sunshine: Conservatives don’t much like talking to pollsters. So those poll results probably mean little.
Note: Trump hasn't even started to earnestly campaign yet.
HOuse?
The problem they had 2 years ago was twofold. One was there dependence on city people. They over-sampled in the large states and large cities. The second issue was that they assumed that the voting would be the same as past elections. Blacks would vote for Hillary in the same number. Hispanics would vote against Trump. So when this large group of people from the outer burbs and rural areas and smaller cities came out in force for Trump, they totally missed it. They didn’t even work these areas.
But its harder to believe they would make the same mistake with congressional districts. By definition these areas are either in cities or not. But there is one group that just might make republicans win more than they think. Blacks and Hispanics feel pretty good about themselves right now. They are not going to go to the polls in record numbers. So we will see. Government employees are sure to go and vote democrat.
Nate is a pundit who claims numbers justify his predictions no politics.
With that said, the GOP is blowing the fall election... because frankly they have been running campaigns and messaging that doesn’t appeal to a single person outside their core....
While this is fine in most situations it is terrible in a situation where Democrats are as highly motivated as they are this year... They are turning out consistently near presidential election year turnouts in these special elections.... meanwhile the GOP rarely is getting its midterm level of turn out.
The ONLY reason less special elections have not been lost by the GOP is that they have mostly been held in very deep red districts.
Come fall the GOP is going to get CRUSHED in a lot of purple and pink districts, unless it wakes up and realizes they need thos non traditional MAGA voters... and give them a reason to care and show up. And NO GOP ECOSPHERE, running a campaign that simply says the democrat is a Pelosi clone WON’T DO IT!!! not even close!
The only prayer I see at this point for the GOP to hold the house is if the Dems so overplay their hand that those non traditional MAGA voters show up just to spite the Dems outrageousness... not because of anything the GOP has done.
This could happen, as the Dems political theater and their the rabid insane wing of their base, will almost certainly go ridiculously over the top during the SJ Confirmation “fight” even though they know they can’t stop it.... However, the GOP plans at present are to have him seated before the start of the next session.. which means he will be confirmed in early Oct or late September... meaning the insanity will be about 4-6 weeks before the election which probably won’t drive too much turnout of those MAGA voters as a month or more is a lifetime for things to calm down and life to go on...
The closer the confirmation vote is to the election, the more likely the GOP will hold the house..... Unless of course the GOP changes message and strategy drastically in their campaigning soon... which I doubt will happen... they seem stuck on stupid.
GOP will gain in the Senate... but without those non traditional and cross over voters showing up, they are going to lose a lot of purple and pink districts this fall... and the house. Trump showed them how to win, they refuse to learn the lessons
“Is he also making odds and taking bets?? I’ll take $1000 at 4 to 1 that the Republicans not only remain in control but pick up at least 5 seats.”
Excellent point. If you want serious odds, check the Vegas line. Those people are interested in being right, not pushing an agenda. Being wrong costs them money.
President Hilliary will be pleased to hear this..................
As reported in the UK Guardian of June 29th 2016;
Hillary Clinton has an 81% chance of winning the election to Donald Trump’s 19%, polling analyst Nate Silver said on Wednesday in his first model of the 2016 presidential election.
Red tsunami.
I’m betting the ‘new’ FBI smokes out democrats doing voter fraud... We win AND a fair number of democrats are arrested.
But the Dems are united behind their detailed, forward-thinking platform of...um...wait a sec....and their fresh new ideas on...er, hold on...and therefore are really building momentum among, uh, can’t remember...voters.
Right.
Nate Silver also called Hillary Clinton’s election a slam dunk.
Until she lost.
BLUSH! Sorry, yes this is a prediction for the US House of Representatives.
All Democrats, in fact anyone in politics or media, are presumed schemingly dishonest until evidence accumulates to the contrary.
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