[Sirius Lee]

A hinge year is bad - but not as bad as an inflection point. I really hate those.

[Sirius Lee]

“I used to think that China could be the kind of autist that builds SpaceX,” Hanania writes. “Instead, it’s the kind that’s afraid to look strangers in the eye and stays up all night playing with his train collection.”

The one thread that ties all of chinese history together is xenophobia. Whenever they venture out into the world, they soon become paranoid and withdraw into a cultural cocoon.

The West, for all our flaws is more like the Borg. We assimilate. It's messy as hell, and involves periods of rot, but after a period of pain (which we are entering), the offal is eventually swept away and we emerge stronger. Hell, even the Irish are somewhat civilized now.

[chajin]

Per the four-generational-cycle theory of history, it’s about time for PRC to experience a major shift, being 73 years since the revolution.

If communism collapses in China the way it did in the former USSR 72 years after its 1917 revolution, that doesn’t mean the result will be a John Locke-kind of republic, any more than it did in Russia.

The Chinese have been ruled by autocrats since the Shang dynasty, and moreover their defining political philosopher was Confucius, not Aristotle as in the West (until the rise of Romanticism and Hegelian dialectic 200 years ago).

And one more thing: the Romans had an empire, the Mongols had an empire, the British had an empire...the Chinese have never been into far-flung empires—they had their chance in the days of Zheng He and decided against it. Admittedly they’re trying to buy up the third world, particularly Africa and South America, but I suspect that has more to do with access to natural materials than actually wanting to rule the world.

[z3n]

Hinge Year?

We always think “now” is some peak point.
Although I will admit things seem to be changing quite a bit, it’s probably more magnified because we are imbued in it.

Can we break out all the old clips of “tipping point” and some of the other phrases we heard during the Trump admin?
What about Y2K. That went over without all the drama that got built up to.

I’m not trying to minimize the things that are going on right now. I think even a lot of us who predicted that brandon would be bad for the country never thought he could break it this quickly.