Posted on 08/24/2023 9:53:50 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, the balance of global economic power is projected to shift dramatically in the coming decades.
More specifically, analysts believe that Asia could soon become the largest regional contributor to world GDP, surpassing the traditional economic powerhouses grouped together in the Developed Markets (DM) category.
In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes Goldman Sachs’ real GDP forecasts for the year 2050 using a voronoi diagram.
The following table includes a regional breakdown of expected real GDP in 2050. All figures are based on 2021 USD.
Based on these projections, Asia (ex DM) will represent 40% of global GDP, slightly ahead of Developed Markets’ expected share of 36%. This would mark a massive shift from 50 years ago (2000), when DMs represented over 77% of global GDP.
Focusing on Asia, China and India will account for the majority of the region’s expected GDP in 2050, though growth in China will have tapered off significantly. In fact, Goldman Sachs expects annual real GDP growth in the country to average 1.1% through the 2050s. This is surprisingly slower than America’s expected 1.4% annual growth during the same decade.
The fastest growing economies in Asia during the 2050s will be India (3.1% annually), Bangladesh (3.0% annually), and the Philippines (3.5% annually). These countries are expected to thrive thanks to their high population growth rates and relatively low median age, which translates into a larger work force.
Turning our attention to Latin America, we can see that the region will account for a relatively small 7% of global GDP in 2050. According to Goldman Sachs’ previous projections from 2011, many Latin American countries have underperformed over the past decade. For example, Brazil’s real GDP shrank from $2.7 trillion in 2010, to $1.5 trillion in 2020.
Because of these setbacks, Goldman Sachs believes Indonesia will be able to overtake Brazil as the world’s largest emerging market before 2050.
That said, Brazil’s economic ranking is still expected to climb above France and Canada by then, if these projections prove to be accurate.
I can predict the future...
...but only a little bit at a time...
I can travel in time...
...but only forwards at the speed of time...
USA was 50% of the global economy in the 1950s. 70 years of bad decisions have dropped that to 13% and falling.
John Titor disagrees.
Bad Decision #1: handing over half our manufacturing to China followed by giving them MFN status.
History will record that as national suicide.
The U.S. was the only major industrial country to emerge from WW2 with its infrastructure and industrial capacity intact. That’s the only reason it was 50% of the world’s GDP in the 1950s. If by “70 years of bad decisions” you mean failing to bomb Europe and Asia back to the Stone Age every ten years, you are right.
Sorry, but the "years of bad decisions" is incorrect -- in the 1950s the rest of the world was either destroyed due to war (Europe, Russia, Japan, China), or recovering from colonialism with no industrial capacity (india, etc.)
The USA was never going to remain at 50% of the world's capacity.
Also, it was never 50%
Thanks, corrected. It peaked around 40%.
There is a big gap between bombing and what we did. The problem with Americans are we are too nice. We give countries billions of dollars in foreign aid, allow the offshoring of entire industries, and expect in return they will like us.
The reality is the rest of the world sees our niceness as weakness and hate us for it.
Well, quite frankly, it worked.
The Germans and Japanese do cooperate with us and generally like us, their snide remarks notwithstanding.
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