“Boy, Haley is fighting for her new job on MSNBC, eh!”
______________________________________________
I am no fan of Nikki Haley. Were she to be elected, she would be, at best, a mixed bag in the vein of George W. Bush. That being said, she should be taken seriously when she asserts that Donald Trump cannot win a General Election. It would be more accurate to say Trump will have a difficult time winning the 2024 General Election. It remains possible for him to eke out a win, but only if the stars align exactly right. He caught lightning in a bottle in his 2016 victory, primarily because he was running against the universally despicable Hillary Clinton and the Democrats were caught flat footed by taking the rust belt states for granted. Democrats are determined not to let that happen again in 2024.
With the corrupt and feeble Biden’s approval rating in the tank, Democrat strategists have known for some time that their only hope for prevailing in 2024 is to be matched against the one GOP candidate whose approval rating is similarly in the tank – Trump! To be matched against any of the GOP rising stars (DeSantis, Kim Reynolds, Youngkin, Tim Scott, etc.) would spell disaster for Biden and they would have quickly replaced him with Newsom.
In order to ensure Trump would get the GOP nomination, Democrats unleashed the flurry of scurrilous legal proceedings against Trump, knowing that Trump loyalists would instinctively come to his defense via the GOP nominating process. That strategy has worked like a charm, as numerous quality GOP candidates were bullied and insulted out of the race by the petty, childish and vindictive Trump. A true statesman would have stepped aside and let a newer generation of GOP leaders emerge, but the 77 year old Trump’s narcissism would not allow for that. His vindication is all that matters to him, and his loyalists have remained firmly in his camp in sufficient numbers to ensure he is the nominee.
Now that the GOP nomination is in his grasp, where does that leave things? Trump likes to say “I’m leading Biden by a lot!” That is true – In West Virginia, Alabama and Wyoming! That is not true in the states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Here are Trump’s poll numbers in six key swing states (RCP averages):
Georgia – 48.5
Wisconsin – 46.4
Arizona – 47.5
Nevada – 48.7
Michigan – 46.2
Pennsylvania – 44.2
In 2020, Trump carried 46.8% of the vote. As seen in these poll numbers he remains stuck at that level in the swing states with little prospect of increasing that number. He is universally known, and no one is changing their mind about him. If the electorate was comprised exclusively of patriotic, rural white males, Trump would have a historic landslide in 2024, winning 98% of the vote. Unfortunately the electorate is far more diverse.
As Trump’s loyal base celebrates his “victories” in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan what do those results really reveal? I submit the following:
As a de facto incumbent, Trump should have been able to vanquish his GOP opponents decisively (80 – 90%), especially after spending tens of millions of dollars in negative attack ads throughout 2023. Instead, between 30 and 50% of GOP voters said they wanted someone other than Trump to be the nominee. This is more than a little alarming.
Winning a general election will require putting together a broad and diverse coalition. Trump’s MAGA loyalists are certainly a part of that coalition, but by themselves are not enough to put him over the top, especially with the Democrat fraud machines in Philly, Detroit, Fulton County, Maricopa County, etc. The blueprint for building such a coalition was demonstrated by Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and Ron DeSantis and Kim Reynolds in 2022, where tremendous victories were achieved in heretofore swing states.
Rather than taking steps to build a winning coalition, Trump is recklessly driving voters away that he would desperately need in November. Building a winning coalition is about addition, not subtraction. Trump doesn’t seem to see that. He gets his thrill from watching his followers at MAGA rallies fawn over his every utterance.
I wonder how many suburban women voters appreciate him calling Nikki Haley “bird brain” or mocking her husband’s overseas deployment. I wonder how many Arizona GOP voters appreciated hearing him denigrate McCain’s military service? I wonder how many Italian Americans were fond of him mocking Ron DeSantis’ name all those months? (DeSantis has been a tremendous governor for Florida, and the best FR members can do is call him “meatball”.) If Trump had not entered the race, DeSantis would be leading Biden 58 – 42 at this point.
Does Trump still have a chance? Yes, if he can avoid a conviction in Bragg’s kangaroo court. He needs to go after Biden relentlessly, but also show some conciliation to other parts of the GOP coalition. That would start by selecting a running mate such as Glenn Youngkin.
Perhaps the best hope is that Biden’s supporters are so despondent they will stay home in large numbers, but that remains a huge unknown. Based on his track record I am not optimistic that Trump can show the self discipline to attract a sufficient number of undecided voters to pull this off. I hope I’m wrong.
What a pile of garbage that stinks to high heaven.
Interestingly I keep seeing headlines that Trump is ahead in all the swing states.
Maybe hold your crepe for now.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4496878-trump-leading-biden-seven-swing-states-survey/
“I am no fan of Nikki Haley. “
I actually think you are.
“Trump’s narcissism would not allow for that.”
Narcissism is a common thread among all POTUS candidates. Nobody but a narcissist would believe he would be a good President. You make it sound like this is a characteristic unique to only Trump.
“she would be, at best, a mixed bag in the vein of George W. Bush. “
And you’re OK with that? Frankly, it scares ME.
One problem with your analysis is that the Democrats don’t agree with it.
They are freaking out. They must be looking at different numbers than you are. Maybe they are looking at these numbers:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4220855/posts
The second problem with your analysis is that using demographics from a stolen election is like analyzing poker hands in a mob poker game.
You don’t get a lot of useful data there.
The third problem with your analysis is that RFK Jr. may run on the Libertarian Party ticket which puts him on the ballot in all fifty states.
He is polling anywhere between 5% and 30%—nobody really knows.
The fourth problem with your analysis is that this February and the election is November. An incumbent President can get crushed by future events they cannot foresee.
Just ask Jimmy Carter:
“That being said, she should be taken seriously when she asserts that Donald Trump cannot win a General Election.”
He has already won two general elections, plain to everyone who does not have their head up their ass.
And the fact that Haley parrots the democrat talking points that say Trump cannot win the general election impresses you?
You are an idiot.
I fit your definition and I think birdbrain is an excellent nickname for Nimrata. I don’t know many women who are women before they are people. Nimrata is judged by her words, actions & history. Thinking she is a symbol of womankind is an insult to women.
(Fox News Commercials
1/10/2020, 7:06:38 PM · by pkajj · 76 replies
Vanity | Jan 10, 2020 | Self
No disrespect to Mr. Mike Lindell, but the My Pillow commercials are becoming quite monotonous. He needs some fresh material. Also, disappointed that he has to go to Egypt for his cotton. What’s wrong with home grown American cotton?
We Owe Mitch McConnell
11/9/2016, 12:42:07 PM · by pkajj · 74 replies
vanity | 11/9/2016 | Self
Mitch McConnell has taken much grief in this forum over the years. As we celebrate Trump’s victory and all the hope it engenders, never forget that McConnell withstood tremendous pressure to keep the Scalia seat vacant. Thanks, Senator McConnell - Your action will have positive effects far beyond the term of Donald Trump. Here’s hoping the replacement is in the mold of Scalia)
Weird - you basically weren’t around for President Donald Trump’s term and reappeared in 2023.
If I read your posting history correctly.
I may still be asleep LOL 🤣😆
Let's see. In which column should we put you in?
Either a Junior Democrat or a RINO?
No difference.
I agree with some of that. Addition is preferred. I don’t think DeSantis would be leading Biden by that much, Haley would still be running.
Trump ain’t gonna change. By November, the alternative will be so bad, he will win over enough undecideds.
Trumps “self-discipline”? I’m not sure you can become a billionaire and a President w/o self discipline. Nice try though.
Do you own a white flag business?
Go back to 2012 — the last year a “conventional” GOP presidential candidate was nominated — and look at the electoral map. Ask yourself this question: Which states did Romney lose in 2012 that a generic Republican would win in 2024?
The answer is daunting. You can take every Romney state from 2012 and add the following to the GOP column: Florida, Ohio and Iowa … plus one electoral vote from Maine … and you still don’t get to 270 EVs.
For all his flaws, the one big thing Trump brings to the table is that he can win big Rust Belt states that Republican presidential candidates hadn’t won in years before him.
Thus above Written by the GOPs political scientist Dr. Bunson? ( AKA Karl Rove), who has never called a presidential election right ......EVER.
NO this election calls for transcendant patriotism and the invocation of Divine Providence.We are fighting for freedom and the end of democrat totalitarian government. If that does not work there will be a civil war.
President Trump is to going to win that freedom from totalitarianism venue.The electoral venue you describe does not exist.
.....Donald Trump cannot win a General Election.
Ok I will play along. So who do you honestly think could win the general? We know it is none of the “also rans”. I like many others will not throw our vote away because the candidate has an “R” behind their name. I did that in 2008...hell, I hate to admit it, but I even volunteered for his campaign. Never again!! I, like many, will sit out or write in.
No way can Haley win. She can’t even win her own state!!!
https://freerepublic.com/tag/by:pkajj/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change
i notice you’ve posted this same basic fake “i’m just concerned” anti-Trump post at least a dozen times on numerous threads ...
you anti-Trump trolls think you are being more sneaky and subtle, but you’re really not ...
i’m gonna keep my eye on you and call you out every time you make one one your fake “i’m just concerned” anti-Trump posts ...
To condemn the man who would save this nation.. even for you.. the one man who does care.. and you are too filled with dumb, to see anything but what you think you know.. dumb is not your friend...
those who can’t see and won’t see, .. I wish they would say the whys of their beliefs. The whys do not add up in truth.. they only add up with the media and the hard left who have had company with the devil. They only add up with lie after lie .. I almost feel sorry for you... almost...
Does it hurt to be that stupid?
You do know the old saying about keeping quiet, don't you?
That’s an awful lot of BS just to say you want Glenn Youngkin as VP. *SMIRK*