Posted on 04/27/2024 9:04:00 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
When Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of U.S. naval operations, gave an interview in 2022, he made a point of saying he believed China could invade Taiwan in 2022 or 2023. As of the last week of April 2024, China has not invaded Taiwan. Does this mean that Taiwan and the international community can breathe a collective sigh of relief? Maybe. A compelling case can be made that if China does intend to take Taiwan, then the period between now and January 2025 is as favorable a time as it is likely to have over the near term.
There is an array of measures China could employ in a runup to an invasion of Taiwan. These include disrupting the U.S. military’s ability to intervene by destroying command and control satellites as well as severing key undersea fiber optics cables. Wouldn’t these actions demand a vigorous U.S. response? This is exactly what China must avoid if it’s to take Taiwan. Experts have been wargaming various scenarios for years and the consensus seems to be that if the U.S. intervenes quickly it will thwart China’s invasion, but there would be heavy casualties on both sides.
Xi Jing Ping and his regime must be weighing the probabilities of a Biden versus a Trump victory in November because the outcome would be a significant variable in their calculus.
China's best opportunity to invade Taiwan in the short term without meaningful U.S. intervention seems to be between now and January 2025 might be a valid conclusion. However, China likes to play the long game so its timetable might not match up at all with conventional wisdom. China's true intentions remain opaque.
Perhaps Xi has decided that an invasion of Taiwan is too risky -- at least in the short term.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
China is playing a waiting game. They don’t want massive losses trying to take back Taiwan. That would be a shame to them. They will continue to use subterfuge to whittle away any resistance.
They can try to invade Taiwan any time. But all hell would break loose and even the Chicom grip on power would be at risk.
Xi doesn’t want to take Taiwan, but Blinken seems to be goading him into doing it.
Depending on your time reference, it’s either 1895 when they were part of Japan or 1949 when Maoism took control of China.
Perhaps it just slipped his mind,
similar to Erdogan jumping in the middle east.
After all US tech is being overwhelmed in Russia according to a recent headline and the Houthis are handing us our rear end according to popular opinion-
China could annex Taiwan while we’re at a movie!!!
and I might sprout a third arm.
Invasion is more likely if Trump wins.
RE: Invasion is more likely if Trump wins.
Please elaborate.
A global “Superpower” that can’t get the Suez Canal open after being closed for seven months by terrorists isn’t in any position to ridicule any other country’s military potential.
“We favour a diplomatic solution, we know that there is no military solution,” he said.
Trump and his base are isolationist. China can see that. Look no further than the posts here.
They are probably observing the war in Ukraine.
In war, you can't predict what will happen next. China is probably realizing that right now.
I heard some ex cia guy recently say about the coming election “Trump would be bad for the USA, but Biden would be bad for the World”
China is afraid that Biden will say “Don’t”. Scary business there.
Troop movements/buildup on the border-just before an attack or invasion. Happened in Ukraine and mideast in ‘67. The Taiwan government needs to have a serious discussion to see if a preemptive attack is in order. Defcon 2 then 1 at a moments notice.
Israel didn’t wait to attack. Neither should Taiwan. China threats-do they get the freedom to threaten Taiwan all the way up to the point where their fist meets Taiwan’s face?
NeverTrump scum.
China’s in no rush.
America is destroying itself and eventually won’t be a concern when they decide to take Taiwan.
Of course not, if he wanted it, he would’ve taken it by now!
China’s might is unparalleled!
He’s playing 8D chess with the super sophisticated grand master chess champs Putin and Iran.
The Chinese are very imaginative and creative-look at how much they’ve advanced mankind.
All of the above is dead serious sarcasm.
The merry band of totalitarians are as isolated as ever and it doesn’t take 3D glasses to see it. Iran has no friends left in the middle east, Russia is economically the size of a chain of gas stations backed by Belarus and China is somewhere between the sto9ne age and now.
Something is missing along the lines of Buffet’s rail cars=Biden halting energy pipelines.
Wealthy Dems are making money off the diversion is a logical guess.
Beware of the Houthis halting global commerce via drones launched from a glorified sandbox doesn’t pass the sniff test.
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