I have been wondering how much “adjustment” is being made by the pollsters for the clear undercounts of Trump voters in 2016 and 2020. I am sure they are making some changes to try and account for the “hidden” Trump voters but have not seen much public discussion from pollsters on this.
It is clear if the undercount from 2016/2020 holds in 2024 and the polls remain where they are Trump should win fairly comfortably. Right now it’s a clean sweep of the swing states, the RCP no tossup map has it at 312-226.
I am cautiously optimistic at this point.
Their semi-official analysis of 2020 admitted to the undercount, but claimed to not know the reason.
AAPOR [American Association of Public Opinion Research] (2021). An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls.
In fact, the mainstream polls continue to this day with large Democrat shares in their samples, contradicted both by the Exit Poll of 2020 and the trends in voter registration in states that register voters by party. The alienation of the working class by the elites has its effects. One of them, to turn more people on our side off to participating in polls. Having said this, the 2022 polls didn’t seem seem out of whack. So, maybe it’s Hidden Trump voters and not simply Hidden Republican voters.