Posted on 05/10/2024 6:46:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Just because it's not front page news at the moment doesn't mean this may not be one of the most important stories in the world right now. As discussed here and here, the conflict between China and the Philippines has been escalating for most of the past year. China claims that all of the islands in the South China Sea belong to it and the Philippines refuses to comply, especially with regard to island that are within its Exclusive Economic Zone.
China has been harassing Philippines' ships and fishing vessels for months but last week it threatened to release proof of an unwritten agreement it claims to have made with former President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte has denied making any such deal and the current president has said that even if the story were true, he would rescind the deal given that even China admits there was no written agreement. In essence, China has been demanding that the Philippines stick to an unenforceable conversation.
This week, China escalated the situation again by referring to another off-the-record agreement it claims to have made with the Philippines.
National Security Adviser Eduardo Año did not mince his words when discussing about the Chinese embassy claim that there is a “new model” between both countries to address the maritime issues in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal.
On Saturday, an unidentified Chinese embassy spokesperson said “new model” to manage the tensions in the shoal where a Philippine navy outpost is located was allegedly approved by officials in the Department of National Defense and the National Security Advisor...
“No one in the Philippine government is, nor have been, empowered nor authorized to enter into or commit to any sort of agreement, understanding, or arrangement — more so informal ones, by our President,” he said.
China's response to this denial was to threaten to release an audio recording of the alleged agreement.
In the alleged Jan. 3 phone call, Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, head of the Philippine military’s Western Command, agrees to a “new model” in handling resupply missions to the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, according to a transcript provided by Chinese officials to Bloomberg News.
The transcript may be released to the public within days, said the officials, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak on the record.
The audio hasn't been released yet but the Chinese Embassy in Manilla did release a transcript to certain media outlets on Tuesday. The Philippines has denied such an agreement was made and suggested a transcript and even a recording could be faked.
“Transcripts can easily be fabricated, and audio recordings can be manufactured by using deep fakes. These reports only [aim] to serve as a distraction from the China Coast Guard’s ongoing aggressive behaviour in the West Philippine Sea,” Armed Forces of the Philippines chief of staff Romeo Brawner said...
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the threat could be part of Beijing’s strategy to counter Manila’s “assertive transparency” tactics to publicise its maritime incidents with China at the sea.
“That is effective and has put China on the back foot, so Beijing needs to sort of wrestle back the initiative,” he said.
Today, National Security Adviser Año called for Chinese diplomats to be expelled from the country over the incident.
The Philippines' national security adviser called on Friday for Chinese diplomats to be expelled over an alleged leak of a phone conversation with a Filipino admiral in a significant escalation of a bitter row over the South China Sea.
China's embassy in Manila had orchestrated "repeated acts of engaging and dissemination of disinformation, misinformation and malinformation", with the objective of sowing discord, division and disunity, Eduardo Ano said in a statement.
One analyst said that even if China had such a conversation with a representative of the Philippines, such conversations are not generally seen as binding or enforceable.
Manila-based political analyst Julio Amador said expelling diplomats should be part of the Philippines' diplomatic tool kit and Chinese embassy officials had shown they did not value their working relationships with Filipino officials.
"Diplomacy is based on trust, yet China is trying to make it look like all meetings between its diplomats and Philippine government representatives are negotiations with binding results," he said.
We could see a real diplomatic break in the next few days, one which could make the next confrontation in the South China Sea even more aggressive.
I was born and raised in the PI. I love the PI and all the people I knew. Though I am not there now I feel very involved and I do not want the PI to be over whelmed by China at any level. There is not good reason for that. We all know they are bullies.
Please, tell them “No” in no uncertain terms. Please. If you agree to their terms now, they will not stop until they own the PI. DON”T let them do it.
Bodega
Ferdinand Marcos flew to Peking when Viet Nam fell. Kissed their butts. Marcos wanted too much rent money for US bases to protect his own country. Mt. Pinatubo(1991) settled the issue. If they want to protect themselves like Israel they should.
Duarte resented the US treating his country like a little brother. Fact is they are just that. Who’s going to protect them now? Perhaps the new Marcos should be making some fast deals with China’s other enemies.
Agree with you. Close family fought side by side with Philippine guerilla fighter (who were aiding a friend, an Australian plantation owner of a small island near Letye Gulf. The Aussie volunteered to be a coastwatcher on the island the Japanese took from him. Brought ashore by fierce Philippine fighters and left there treetop- he was discovered and murdered by Japanese troops tracing his radio broadcasts). Family thought the world of Philippine people, their culture, food and most of all their loyalty to the US.
The fact that the Chi-coms are trying to recreate the Japanese Empire Pacific Co-Prosperity Sphere all over again has not been lost on modern Japan who are gearing up to fight them, as are the Phillipines, and other Pacific countries— they cannot understand the chi-com loving Biden and company not allowing the US Navy to make it power known.
You are right to advise them to kick them out- tell the NO in no uncertain terms as you say. Moreover the US needs to STEP UP and tell the Chinese to back off. More the problem when we are so “owned” by them. Trump had the answer and has even more- divest from these monsters. The chi-coms are aided by Communists in some of the Philippine island- as in the days of the Moro rebellion. The War on Terror had the US really cleaning them out— but now China is cultivating this. A brave and true friend of the US should not be ignored because of the greed of the Bidens and their ilk.
You are behind the times.
Marcos was doing the popular thing in those post Nixon goes to China days. Everyone was going to China back then, after it broke up with the USSR. I recall the trade fairs, and etc.
The last bit is the latest US-Philippines treaty. The US now has basing rights everywhere in the Philippines. This is oriented to combat basing. The Philippines is also now a bad place for USN and USAF rear area basing, such as shipyards (Subic). Its too close to China, given modern weapons. The Philippines will be a place to fight from, not support from.
Duterte tried to make nice with the Chinese but they double-crossed him. This was against the advice of the Philippine military and economic establishment. They were right. Duterte is now trying to distance himself from that episode. In any case, he is no longer in charge.
I like how he dealt with the drug dealers.
A mixed bag, in the end.
They got a lot of petty dealers, mostly drug addicts, but not really the importers (mostly Chinese) and their organizations. They scared a bunch of the petty (and not so petty) politicos that covered for the trade, but the pressure went away quickly. Now its all about the same as before.
So you are in favor of extra-judicial murder by death squads? I am not.
RP would be well advised to develop considerable naval and aerial drone capacity as quickly as possible. That’d be murder on Chinese ships trying to navigate between all those islands...
*Everyone was going to China back then, after it broke up with the USSR.*
A week after Viet Nam fell?
*So you are in favor of extra-judicial murder by death squads? I am not.*
And Mexico’s? How much did it cost us to get rid of the rape rooms in Iraq?
*RP would be well advised to develop considerable naval and aerial drone capacity as quickly as possible. That’d be murder on Chinese ships trying to navigate between all those islands...*
Now you’re thinking. Who says they have to ‘develop’ their own? We ‘gave’ Ageus destroyers to Taiwan while replacements were online.
*Duterte tried to make nice with the Chinese but they double-crossed him. This was against the advice of the Philippine military and economic establishment.*
1) Making nice was stupid. Double crossed-That’s naive, something no head of state has any business being.
2) Philippine military/economic establishment.
Both are corrupt and not worth fighting for. I read it in Robert Kaplan’s “Imperial Grunts”. NCO’s, the backbone of any military, realize their officers are corrupt like the politicians. No commitment to the cause.
Re the Filipino elite - they are corrupt, but they are in that same boat with the Filipino masses. The Chinese aren’t going to do any of them any good.
Its very much the same feeling as WW2, vs the Japanese. They were corrupt then too.
The Philippines still has that which has long since disappeared from the US - a sense of unity. Its refreshing.
Saying “corrupt” is a cop out.
RP are buying arms as fast as they can. They have just received Israeli SAM systems, Indian-Russian antiship missiles, Korean Frigates, etc. Much more is coming. The arms purchasing budget is 7x what was in Dutertes time.
Thats a huge change in Philippine defense posture.
*The Philippines still has that which has long since disappeared from the US - a sense of unity. Its refreshing.*
It’s amazing what an outside threat will do for unity. Then there’s the US after 911. What’s happened since?
In the case of the Philippines, and in truth of most countries, this does not require an outside threat. Its simply that the people, or the elite faction thereof, do not hate their own country, nor do they hate the mass of their own people.
The US, and some Anglo countries, the problem is a peculiar cultural condition. The elite hate their own country and their own people. This is best explained, I think, by Angelo Codevillas analysis. I suggest you read Codevillas 2010 essay,”Americas Ruling Class and the Perils of Revolution”.
One of several links-
https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=4725
In the case of the Philippines, and in truth of most countries, this does not require an outside threat. Its simply that the people, or the elite faction thereof, do not hate their own country, nor do they hate the mass of their own people.
The US, and some Anglo countries, the problem is a peculiar cultural condition. The elite hate their own country and their own people. This is best explained, I think, by Angelo Codevillas analysis. I suggest you read Codevillas 2010 essay,”Americas Ruling Class and the Perils of Revolution”.
One of several links-
https://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=4725
China needs to adhere to the Treaty of the Sea that states she has only 12-miles out of actual ownership. That Taiwan might be Chinese is a different circumstance. China cannot simply claim the Philippines... if this were the case China could claim Hawaii and Japan.
Israel protected herself in 1977-1978 along with then S.Africa, Taiwan, S.Korea in jointly developing and detonating nuclear weapons at Sea south of S.Africa just west of the AnArtic landmass.
I think you meant those 1st 2 replies for the previous poster.
As for the drones, well dispersed local mfg. capacity for at least half the small and medium size drones would somewhat shield Philippines from idiots like Biden, plus, more of the money stays in country. Tech sharing arrangements such as the Pole / S. Korean deals could be made too? For the larger more sophisticated drones, tougher for RP to build, RP would probably be best advised to diversify supply, buying from the US, S. Korea, and perhaps Israel or a NATO country or 2.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.