I'm looking for some kind of a move during Ramadan.
An intriguing thought. If bin Laden were to show up at the Ka'aba during Ramadan, would the Saudi government dare to try to arrest him? Everything I've read suggests the Saudi government is deathly afraid of bin Laden and the militant Muslims who follow him.
In my opinion the Black Flags are not yet flying because they are waiting to rally more support. They want a victory of some type in Afganistan. Such will require at least some US/British forces on the ground for them to over run then use the Pakistan turning to OBL as the move that coincides with unfurling actual Black flags. Symbolically to many Muslims the simple fact of war is enough to presume the Black Flags.
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown