Drive Launched to Qualify Davis Recall Effort for the Ballot

News 10 - ABC Sacramento - KXTV ^ | 02/22/2003 | Marci Brightwell

[Impeach98]

Drive Launched to Qualify Davis Recall Effort for the Ballot

Supporters of an effort to recall Gov. Gray Davis launched their petition drive Saturday. Several hundred activists were at the State Capitol to kick off the effort.

Supporters must gather more than 900,000 signatures to qualify the issue for the ballot.

Recall supporters are unhappy with the governor's performance, particularly his handling of the budget crisis. "Gray Davis made a lot of promises that got him elected, and now he's falling down on the job, and every day we go deeper and deeper into debt and he's doing nothing," said recall supporter Lisa Bonnet.

The Recall Davis Drive was started by a statewide taxpayers' group trying to make it a bipartisan effort, but so far Republicans are the biggest backers. "Our party is the opposition party to the most unpopular governor in history," said Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks. "If we can't summon the fortitude to recall that governor, what good are we?"

Not all Republican leaders are on board. Assembly Republican Leader Dave Cox does not support the recall. Senate GOP Leader Jim Brulte takes no position. Some Republican leaders worry the effort will distract the struggling state party from other goals.

Democrats say the recall doesn't stand a chance. "All you have here are a bunch of sore losers who can't stomach the fact they got beat fair and square in the last election," said Davis adviser Roger Salazar.

Story last updated Saturday, February 22, 2003 - 8:23 PM

[Impeach98]

The actual link here: Click HERE to See News 10 Report

Click the VIDEO button to watch the streamed newscast and coverage of the rally.

[Rensselaer]

More time, effort, money wasted by conservatives.

I see three scenarios, in order of likelihood:

1: Recall fails. Davis is stronger than ever. (I think that this is by far the most likely scenario).

2. Recall suceeds, Davis is replaced by another Democrat, freed from Davis' image, policies, etc. In a state that is still heavily Democratic, Dems are in stronger position than before to retain governor's office in 2006.

3. Recall suceeds, Davis is replaced by Republican elected with well under 50% plurality, facing massive budget deficit, hostile legislature. State electorate remains heavily Democratic. Republican perceived as unable to accomplish much, Dems retake statehouse in 2006.

Under all three scenarios, we spend a few million in conservative money, use up lots of energy. Under the best case scenario, it works as a steam release that allows the Dems to retain control of the state assembly and Boxer's senate seat, rather than building anger to a true voter revolt in 2004.

Look, guys, we lost in 2002. Let's gear up to winning a senate seat against a weak incumbent in 2004 and setting us up for a real comeback in 2006, rather than reliving the past and wasting several million on this effort. Remember the "recall McCain" effort? Over 20 years I've seen many of these recall deals, and they virtually never work on a statewide official.

[NormsRevenge]

I would add to that, we need to go after all the fiscally irresponsible demRats statewide with a vengence for bringing this mess down on the people who built and keep this state going.

It is not just Davi$ who is at fault.

He proposes budgets, but he doesn't write the spending bills. But he does sign them.

[Impeach98]

There's a reason polls show that Davis has an unpopularity rating of 74% - because Davis lied to voters about the budget crisis the state was facing. He hid the true seriousness of the crisis until SEVERAL DAYS after the election.

Now people realize they were duped - should they have voted for him in the first place?

Of course not - but now they know the truth. And if WE won't step forward and provide the only recourse available when our leaders deceive us in order to win re-election, then WHO WILL?

Recall Gray Davis - and to those who are whining about why they don't support the recall I say this:

Lead, Follow or Get the Heck Outta the Way

This is the next Proposition 13 - and to those who oppose this effort for political strategy reasons and cowardice, well, we will remember :) Ask those who opposed Prop 13.

[Impeach98]

Another Recall Rally picture:

[Rensselaer]

Lead, Follow or Get the Heck Outta the Way

Sometimes one leads by preventing others from doing something stupid.

[ladyinred]

A 74% disapproval rating bump!

DUMP DAVIS!

[Impeach98]

"Sometimes one leads by preventing others from doing something stupid. "

Good point actually! Except your arguments above weren't consistent with this. Sorry - but 'letting them hang themselves' only means ruining our state. If that is what you want to do - please move to another state with that attitude and 'allow' someone like Gray Davis to ruin it.

I love California and I love our democracy.

I do not believe we can allow state leaders to purposely withhold the true financial health of the state so that they can secure re-election. I believe that undermines the institution of our democracy.

I believe if we do this and do NOT take action in the form of a recall, then we lower the bar further. I'm not about to do that, if you are that is your priviledge and right. I just think that is a crummy way to involve one's self politically... it's such a zero-sum game. My involvement in politics has been based on a desire to bring about positive change. In this case, that begins with spanking Gray Davis for lying and deceiving voters in one of the most despicable acts of his administration.

If you want the dates and quotes of Gray Davis about the budget - to show just a few weeks before the election versus what he said just 17 days afterwards I would be happy to post them. THIS is the justification for recall. As for political considerations that you raise, I'd be happy to counter those too. Except political considerations is not the basis upon which you should be critiquing the moral validity of this recall drive.

[Rensselaer]

This is the next Proposition 13 - and to those who oppose this effort for political strategy reasons and cowardice, well, we will remember :) Ask those who opposed Prop 13.

I was an ardent supporter of Prop 13. Why does that commit me to support this effort?

Look, I can see you're all whipped up and all, but it's a simple matter of using your energy and resources wisely. Your posts show no reflection, no thought, no strategizing, no sense that there might even be a better way to go. I'd feel a lot more confident you'd succeed if there seemed to be more to this.

Now people realize they were duped - should they have voted for him in the first place?

Also, from all I can tell, you're wrong when you say voters were duped on the budget crisis. It didn't take an Einstein to figure out the state's situation last November.

if WE won't step forward and provide the only recourse available when our leaders deceive us in order to win re-election, then WHO WILL?

This is the only recourse? Usually, the recourse is the next election. Now sure, recall is a recourse that is available in California (and some other states) but it tends not to work too well. As I keep emphasizing, it's not just recalling Gray Davis - it's who is going to replace him even if you succeed. I figure at least two of the three probable outcomes - 1) Davis survives bid; 2) Davis is replaced by another Democrat with similar views and policies; or 3) Davis is replaced by a Republican - are bad. And the two put together are certainly have a higher probability of occuring than the one good result, which, frankly, may not turn out so good either.

"Lead, follow, or get out of the way," you say? How about another slogan - "First, do no harm." Or how about "haste makes waste." Slogans are no substitute for careful planning.

All that said, I'm sure you're not going to stop because of anything I write, so best of luck. We'll see who eats crow, and I'd be delighted if it turns out to be me. But that doesn't mean I won't continue to discourage this effort as a waste of time, money, and energy.

[NormsRevenge]

Crow can be quite tasty, yaknow. I admire your bent... tho I don;t agree with your opinions.

That said, have a nice day.

[Rensselaer]

political considerations is not the basis upon which you should be critiquing the moral validity of this recall drive.

Whoever questioned the moral validity of this effort? Look, I assume that we all want positive change. I assume that we all care about democracy. I assume that we all want to hold leaders to high standards of truth. Let's not mistake disagreements over strategy and tactics with disagreements over goals.

[Impeach98]

If the issue is political gain from strategy then let me suggest that when the first recall effort in history that qualified against a California statewide elected office holder that this will send shockwaves through the nation.

I argue that is good for Bush and the Republicans.

You assume the recall won't succeed in your point #1. The recall needs to have signatures from only 6% of all registered voters (12% of those who voted in the last election and only 1/2 the registered voters turned out) to qualify.

If you believe recall organizers cannot get 6% of the state's registered voters to sign a petition against a man with a 74% disapproval rating then you are seriously underestimating the strength of our organizational efforts thus far.

[Rensselaer]

You assume the recall won't succeed in your point #1.

Well, you seem to assume that it will succeed.

But if you read my posts carefully, my thinking that the effort is a waste is based not on the assumption that it won't succeed, but that my belief that even if it succeeds (not only in getting on the ballot, but in actually recalling Davis) it probably won't accomplish much, and may actually hurt. (You seem to interpret success as just getting on the ballot. That's too narrow. Success is replacing Davis with a governor who will have substantially different policies and be able to carry them through a very hostile Democrat assembly). Here are the possible results as I see it:

Step 1. Get on ballot. $1 million, lots of time and energy by grassroots. If failure, Davis stronger than ever. If success, step 2.

Step 2. Recall campaign. $__ million, lots of time and energy by grassroots. If failure, Davis stronger than ever. If success, go to 3.

Step 3, Result A. $__ million, lots of time and energy. Davis replaced with Democrat, probably with similar views. No change in state policies, state no better off. Democrats strengthened by eviction of unpopular incumbent. Steam let off in the electorate; Democrats strengthened heading into 2004 and 2006; or...

Result B1, Davis replaced with Republican, facing hostile legislature, huge problems. Takes blame for unpopular tax hikes or spending cuts, which may or may not get through legislature. State maybe or maybe not better off, depending on what gets through legislature. Dems in legislature better off, blaming GOP governor; Dems stronger for 2004 Senate/2006 Asssembly, leading to longer term Dem control, bad for state; or ...

Result B2, Davis replaced with Republican who is hugely successful in restoring state's economy; state better off; maybe GOP reaps benefits, sweeps to victory in 2004 and 2006.

Result B2 is the only one that's worth it, and it's probably least likely.

Look, I don't want bad things for California just so we can elect more Republicans (Conservatives, really) down the road (in fact, if Davis survives this, I'll be rooting for him to get out of his mess, because that will be good for California), but you've also got to be realistic about what will cause meaningful change.

[Impeach98]

Under your logic Republicans should just resign in mass from the legislature because there are a lot of problems facing the state and then Democrats can take FULL blame.

The problem with your argument is that it is a trailing indicator... you are buying into the pessimistic notion of "when things are bad they will only get worse"

I would argue that if a Republican took over from Davis (thus preventing further problems) that they would find themselves much in the same situation as Bill Clinton did when he took office... that being that things had been so bad and bottomed out that they could only rebound from where they were.

Let me modify that to note that there would certainly be at least a rough beginning - the tough decisions time. But fortunately the historic event of this being the first recall election to ever qualify for the ballot (and yes, I am assuming it does) it will provide a brief honeymoon.

And why do I think a GOPer will win? Because if this recall qualifies somewhat quickly then the law dictates the election be a special election (it will be outside of the window for it being placed on the next regularly scheduled election - the March primary - and thus by law a special election must be called by the Lt. Governor).

WHO do you think will turn out to vote? WHO do you think will head out to save Davis' @ss? Even those who disagree with the recall but don't like Davis will more often STAY HOME then go turn out and vote NO on the recall to save a man they do not like.

Were you aware of the special election aspect of this? If not then I think you should reconsider your scenarios. If you were then I cannot see why you would assume it more likely for a GOPer *NOT* to win?

[Rensselaer]

Yes, I was aware of all the facts you mention. No, under my logic Republicans should not just resign in mass from the legislature so that Democrats can take the full blame. Where did you come up with that?

Again, I'll be happy to eat crow on this. But I've seen these types of efforts over and over again, and if this doesn't turn out to be a waste of time, energy, and money, it will be the rare exception. I realize you're just certain that this is that rare exception, but ardent backers of these types of efforts always are.

I think that the Cal GOP needs to focus on putting out a good, carefully thought out agenda for what they would do differently, aimed at gaining in the legislature next year. They need to target Boxer, who has won two Senate terms because of GOP disarray and lack of focus. They need to work to block Davis's agenda through traditional legislative means (which, BTW, they have a better chance of doing now than with a recall effort that fails, or puts another Dem into office).

Finally, I don't understand why you think that Democrats won't turn out to replace Davis with another Democrat. They'll understand the stakes as well as Republicans. (Our better hope is not that they don't turn out so much as that they turn out and split their votes among various candidates).