Posted on 04/26/2003 10:25:23 AM PDT by EternalHope
Billion SARS cases feared By Mary Papadakis 27Apr03
MORE than one billion people worldwide could be infected by the deadly SARS virus within a year, a leading UK scientist has warned.
Dr Patrick Dixon, a specialist in predicting global trends based at London's Development Management School, said SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) had the potential to turn into a pandemic and infect more people than AIDS. The grim prediction comes as a Melbourne infection control specialist warned the virus could destroy Third World countries.
Glenys Harrington, who flew to Manila yesterday to join the World Health Organisation's assault on SARS, said the virus was a major threat to developing nations.
"Countries that are Third World or very poor may in fact be easily overwhelmed by SARS," she said.
"It could devastate some of these countries. It's important to offer any kind of assistance to them now.
"If we don't have a global effort to help countries that are under-resourced, it can get out of control."
In other developments:
UK scientists said a SARS vaccine could be ready by the end of the year but safety checks could delay its introduction for two years and it was not expected to work indefinitely because the virus is mutating.
THE first commercial diagnostic test for SARS, developed by German biotechnology company Artus, should arrive in Australia next week.
THE WHO has called for an official global hunt to track down every possible case and halt the explosive epidemic.
VIETNAM will be declared the first country to contain the virus if no new cases are diagnosed by April 30.
CHINA intensified its efforts against the virus, launching a national SARS control centre and a 10-step strategy for tackling the crisis, including improved quarantine and free medical services to poor SARS patients.
TAIWAN relocated 480 health workers, who were quarantined with 600 patients and visitors at SARS-ravaged Taipei Municipal Ho Ping Hospital, to military barracks.
HONG KONG officials took samples from a apartment block, the Hing Tung House, where seven people became ill.
Ms Harrington, 46, who is The Alfred hospital's infection control program co-ordinator, said she would help assess the preparedness of the country to which she was assigned to treat SARS.
Her six-week mission includes reviewing isolation, infection control and cleaning procedures, demonstrating how to use personal protective equipment and developing strategies in case of a SARS outbreak.
"We are certainly doing the same things here but we are in a different situation in that we are better resourced," she said.
"In Victoria, we are very well prepared from an infectious diseases point of view."
SARS is believed to be transmitted by tiny droplets from coughs or sneezes.
But there is also evidence it can be caught by touching contaminated objects such as door handles.
Experts have advised people to wash hands regularly and wear masks when travelling in SARS-affected areas.
SARS patients have been advised to wear masks and sneeze into a tissue which should then be flushed down the toilet or placed in a sealed plastic bag and thrown away.
A nine-year-old NSW boy remains the only Australian being monitored for SARS.
Four Australians were notified to the WHO as probable SARS cases, including three siblings in Victoria, but all recovered fully.
There have been more than 280 deaths from 4600 cases of SARS reported worldwide.
This report appears on news.com.au.
If SARS gets out of the box and turns into a worldwide pandemic, LOTS of people could get it. It is the reason such enormous efforts are being made to contain SARS.
And yet I expect to see lots of comments about "panic", "fear mongering", etc., and the usual brain dead comparisons between SARS and the number of people who die from ordinary flu.
LOL!
Do you think that's gonna stop 'some of us fools' from making comment?
Anyway, what are you REALLY afraid of - you're GOING to die of something SOME day anyway!
What about your loved ones, and your friends?
What about them - do you know them too?
This is not to say that it won't - first cases are being reported in the Phillippines and India, and we may see them popping up in Africa in the next couple of weeks - but the "wave of death" scenarios don't seem to be coming true.
Do you think that's gonna stop 'some of us fools' from making comment?
If I was worried about it I would not have posted the article. I put on my flame proof underwear first.
It looks like we can stop SARS if we catch it early enough and try hard enough. Singapore, Hanoi, Toronto, and even Hong Kong are testimony to that probable fact.
China is another story. No one has any idea how many cases they have, most likely including their own government.
Honestly, just WHO has had the gall to 'flame' you on a medical thread?
Oh, sorry - a 'fear-based' thread about a disease that has not really even established a foot-hold inside the United States of America?
If people continue to avoid washing their hands religiously there could be 60,000 cases in a year. One billion is hyperbolic.
We certainly agree about SARS not being established in the U.S. I have zero personal concern about catching SARS anywhere in the U.S. today. Nor do I think that situation is likely to change any time in the near future.
Whether it changes in the medium/long term depends on events that have not happened yet.
Hence my support for strong efforts to put SARS back in its box. And my disgust for the way China has handled SARS.
See: Japan.
Except in cases of high population density, where a deadly organsim can leap from host to host quickly.
This and our modern world which is shrunk via air travel, makes a potential disaster possible.
Your principle did not stop the black death of the 14th cent--and that in a world less populous than ours.
That, too, was a disease brought to the West from the East--and by ships (engaged in trade), the 14th century's equivalent of modern air travel.
Agree completely with both your comments.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.