Section9's CALGOV Prediction Thread (...place your bets; this Vanity Pumps You Up.....)

The Washington Post ^ | August 7th, 2003 | Li'l Ol' Me, in Florida exile from the Golden State

[section9]

The following AP story is excerpted from this morning's Washington Post:

'Terminator' in Calif. Recall Race

By ERICA WERNER
The Associated Press
Thursday, August 7, 2003; 7:55 AM

LOS ANGELES - With a surprise jump into California's recall race, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger touched off the heaviest tremors in the state's political earthquake to date, saying he wasn't afraid of attacks sure to come from Democrats and conservative Republicans alike.

But the aftershock from a day of topsy-turvy developments in the drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis came just hours later, when Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante broke party ranks to become the first prominent Democrat to declare his own candidacy.

Another Democrat, state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, will also take out papers to run, his press secretary said early Thursday.

------------end of excerpt----------

Okay, I thought I'd start a speculation thread on percentages of the take, campaign strategy, and possible Gray Davis moves at the bar of injustice. What does Ahnuld do to the percentages and to turnout? How does the CalRep's conservative wing handle his entrance: do they splinter the vote and stay in, or do they make a deal with Arnold and pull out (I speak specifically of Issa and McClintock). How many Dems get in the race and bury Gray Davis by the weekend? Does Kobe beat the rap by Opening Day? How and where does Arnold campaign? In the Fishhook, to make sure the base gets out? Or does he also raid Davis' and Bustamante's blue zone territory to reduce their margins in LA and SF?

My take is as follows;

Arnold....35-37% (unless he comes across real well as a populist conservative, a la Reagan, then this guy could get into the forties if he catches fire...)
Cruz Bustamante/John Garamendi....27-32%

The rest of the candidates, Issa and McClintock, either drop out or split the conservative vote and go down into the single digits, since most Pubbies want their vote to "count". Arianna, Larry Flynt, and the Pink Lady go down into the one and twos. Kobe Bryant and O.J. split the write-in vote. Gary Coleman scores a moral victory by taking home 5% and parlays it into a talk show host's position on MSNBC.

Again, this is my take based on my hunch. A lot changes occur if Feinstein decides to jump back in.

Gray Davis, btw, is still a jerk and will take this to court in the hopes that the Ninth Circus will save his butt. Any takers on legal questions?

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[section9]

Okay guys, any takers? Comments? This election will be a seventy day barnburner. How will it play out?

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Viet Vet in Augusta GA]

My money's on Kristi, an aromatherapist from Oxnard, who signs her name with little happy faces over the "i's".

[AAABEST]

LMFAO!!!!

[ladtx]

My money's on Gary Coleman. He'll stand up for the little guy.

[AAABEST]

LOL!!!!

[section9]

My money's on Gary Coleman. He'll stand up for the little guy.

Oh, Jesus Gawd....

Did you have to do that? Now I have to clean up my keyboard.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[alwaysconservative]

Arnold wins the vote, albeit with resistance from big labor, the California Supreme Court upholds it and Gray goes to the federal court and the 9th Circuit to stop the train wreck. They yank the election away from Arnold, and there is an enormous backlash in 2004 against cheating Dems.

[familyofman]

Prediction:
1.) Gray Davis is recalled.

2.) Winner of election - Terminator, or LtGov. B., either with less than 35%.

3.) Recall of newly elected Gov. begins 1 week after election.

[L,TOWM]

You are nuts.

Everybody knows that Raoul, the democratic pet therapist and interior decorator in West Hollywood, has his, er, finger, on the pulse of what every Californian cares about.

He only needed the boys in one bath house to get his qualifying signatures, and the inside word is that he will be servicing, er, serving, evry registered democratic voter in the state with a personal visit over the next two months... He can't lose, unless his supply of poppers and meth runs out.

[section9]

You know, that outcome isn't at all half bad. Especially if Arnold gets in the low forties.

We're talking the possibility of Gray going to court and handing the state to Bush in 2004. Hmmmm...

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Miss Marple]

I concur with the court strategy that the rats will take. However, I do not think they will be successful, because they will have to get through the state courts, whose judges ALSO can be recalled.

If they take it to the Ninth and win, the Rats will reap the whirlwind, as the voters will be enraged. I wouldn't be surprised to see marches on Sacramento.

It was obvious to me last night that there is an emotional component to Arnold's candidacy. He wants to rescue California and the voters see him as a larger-than-life hero who can do it, and I suspect quite large numbers will support him.

Yanking the rug out will absolutely destroy the democrats. There is no way the voters will acquiesce.

Regarding Issa and McClintock, I imagine there is already an effort underway to get them to unite around Arnold. Issa could be guaranteed his money back from Arnie and some praise from the White House, and McClintock could be offered a budget director's position and the Lieutenant Governor's slot with Arnie in the next election.

We will see exactly how good a politician Arnie is. I will bet a lot of people are underestimating him.

[Dog Gone]

Arnold wins easily. The election is a circus, and he's the star.

Recall supporters are more motivated to vote than Davis supporters. The true conservatives in the race split that vote, and Arnold gets twice as many votes as the runner up.

I'll predict he gets 36% of the vote, and the next closest is about 15%.

[Jim Noble]

My money's on the 9th Circuit stopping the recall.

[Brandon]

We will see exactly how good a politician Arnie is. I will bet a lot of people are underestimating him.

I suspect he'll be a very good politician. I saw him on Leno last night. Granted that's not exactly a hostile environment, but one thing I noticed is that Arnold stayed on message, all the way through. No matter what Leno said or askedhim, he managed to work in his talking points:

1. California is broken.

2. Gray Davis is responsible for the mess.

3. I can fix it.

Leno even asked him, "Can you stand up to the heat of a campaign?" or words to that affect. Arnold stayed on message. He aid something like, "I know they will accuse me of things. I know they'll say I'm a womanizer. But we already know that Gray Davis is the master of negative campaigning. California is broken, Gray Davis is the problem, and I can fix it." I'm heavily paraphrasing, but I was very impressed at how he kept turning everything back to that theme.

[Dog Gone]

My money's on the 9th Circuit stopping the recall.

That's Davis's only hope, although Federal Courts generally defer to state courts on these sorts of matters.

I don't think they'll stop the election. Even liberal judges feel political pressure from the citizens, and it's pretty clear that California wants to dump Davis.

Given the fact that the Supremes would probably reverse their decision anyway, I think the odds are against your prediction.

[Mo1]

It was obvious to me last night that there is an emotional component to Arnold's candidacy. He wants to rescue California and the voters see him as a larger-than-life hero who can do it, and I suspect quite large numbers will support him.

I noticed that also and I think you're right

[sdk7x7]

Arnold, 35%. Small-scale recall of him to begin soon after the election, but will fade out after several weeks.

Not sure if the courts will let Gray Davis put his name on the ballot or not.

Of course... the kid who needs to save his money for a laptop for college also might win.

[Brandon]

Okay, I thought I'd start a speculation thread on percentages of the take, campaign strategy, and possible Gray Davis moves at the bar of injustice. What does Ahnuld do to the percentages and to turnout?

Boosts it, possibly dramatically, because now people who pay little attention to politics will hear about it. The campaign will be reported on E!, and similar outlets, at least to some extent. And almost all the "extra" voters will be voting to oust Davis and install the Terminator.

How does the CalRep's conservative wing handle his entrance: do they splinter the vote and stay in, or do they make a deal with Arnold and pull out (I speak specifically of Issa and McClintock).

Dunno. I'm not from Cali, but the Cali GOP, seen from a distance, seems to have a positive genius for shooting itself in the foot. Didn't Issa say if Arnold runs, he wouldn't? Or was that someone else? The good thing is they don't have to decide right away -- as long as the GOP candidates focus their sights on Davis, and not on each other, they can take a look at the polls a week or two before the vote, and if one candidate is clearly doing better than the others, the others can do he right thing, and drop out and endorse the leader.

How many Dems get in the race and bury Gray Davis by the weekend?

DiFi says she's out; she was the one with the best chance to win. Bustamante supposedly is in, and we've been hearing rumblings from Lockyer and Sanchez. That would be three. I would guess that there is some pretty frantic polling going on right now in Cali, with various people trying to figure out what the turnout is likely to be, given Arnold's announcement, and what Davis's chance are (probably very poor), and finally, who can win on Part 2 on the ballot. The one thing the Dems don't have is a strong, central figure who can enforce party discipline, and make them all unite behind one alternative candidate.

Of course, the Dems have the same opportunity to the GOP has, in that they can run three or four people, figure out who has the best chance of winning around the end of September, and have the rest drop out and endorse. Their problem is that anyone who puts his or her name on the ballot is going against the expressed wishes of the party leadership, so there's a certain amount of risk involved for them that isn't there for the GOP candidates.

btw, I saw some Dem talking head on one of the interview shows last night, after it became known Arnold was in. I noticed that every time he said Arnold's name, he also mentioned Larry Flynt. It was stuff like, "With candidates like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Larry Flynt ..." I doubt if that is a coincidence, and I suspect it indicates a dirty campaign lies ahead on the Dem side (like that is any big surprise.) Does Kobe beat the rap by Opening Day?

The only way that happens is if the accuser folds and decides not to testify, or a plea bargain is struck. I don't think either of those is in the cards at the moment. Kobe's preliminary hearing is two weeks before the season starts, and the trial will probably be scheduled for sometime between Feb and April, according to the talking heads. Look for this one to go to trial, unless the accuser gets cold feet, because Kobe has nothing to gain from a plea bargain, a lot to lose.

How and where does Arnold campaign? In the Fishhook, to make sure the base gets out? Or does he also raid Davis' and Bustamante's blue zone territory to reduce their margins in LA and SF?

I don't know the political geography of Cali, but I would think Arnold's appeal would cut across party lines, so I would expect to see him running in places that you might not normally see a Republican candidate run. As to how, I thought that was pretty clear from his appearance on Leno: He's running as an outsider, and the talking points are:

1. California is broken.

2. Davis is responsible.

3. I can fix it.

A talking head last night (can't remember who) suggested that Cali voters are mad at everyone in their state government, and would recall the whole bunch of 'em if they could. If that's true, Arnold's message could be very effective.