Posted on 09/19/2003 4:55:51 AM PDT by arj
Wasn't it Mark Twain who said that reports of his demise were much exaggerated or was it Harry Truman in 1948? Well, the witticism could just as easily be applied to George W. Bush, who suddenly seems to be the subject of dire predictions from nearly every political undertaker and spin-doctor in Washington.
If one were to listen to the clownish Democratic mouthpiece James Carville and the rest of his "Democracy Group," there is practically no chance that Bush can win in November a year from now. Between the lines of their most current status report is the implied suggestion that Bush should announce that he will not seek reelection. Even the highly respected independent demographer John Zogby describes Bush as a wounded chief executive, a 50-50 president in a 50-50 nation who is so much at the mercy of events that it will be difficult for him to change by the time Americans go to the polls a year from now.
What is causing all this premature speculation about the end of the Bush dynasty are the latest polls that show a decline in the president's overall approval rating and specifically in his handling of the economy and the efforts to reconstruct Iraq to the tune of $87 billion at least.
But wait a moment. Whatever happened to the old truism that a week can be six months in politics and a month can be a year? Zogby, for instance, doesn't disagree that it still holds in most cases. He just opines that Iraq and the economy are issues that don't lend themselves to quick resolution and, particularly in the case of Iraq, depend on outside forces beyond anyone's ability to control. Why even a new terrorist crisis in this country would not benefit the president's standing as it did in the case of Sept. 11, 2001, according to Zogby, who predicts that voters would hold Bush responsible for not preventing it.
Hold on. There are several factors that make all these funereal predictions sort of like whistling past the cemetery, including the reminder that it is difficult to beat someone with no one -- especially if that someone has raised more money than anybody in the history of the presidency.
Also, there are 10 guys running around seeking the Democratic nomination and with the slight exception of one or two, most don't seem to have captured much imagination. The first is frontrunner Howard Dean who has become the darling of the liberal set despite the fact he is a member of the National Rifle Association. The second is the newest candidate, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who seems to have jumped close to the top of the leader board in a few days. While both of them opposed the war in Iraq, Clark's views on this subject would have to be considered far more credible given his distinguished military career. But he is hardly a household name despite the fact he commanded the U.S. forces in Bosnia. He also seems woefully unschooled on the domestic issues.
Another problem with writing off the president at such an early juncture is that the White House is as aware of the numbers and problems as those who are citing them. Even Zogby's position seems to presuppose that the likes of White House political genius Karl Rove, armed with all that money, are going to be impotent when it comes to saving young George from following old George into one-term embarrassment. It wouldn't be the first time Rove has been underestimated. It has been just about a year since he pulled off the stunning coup of leading Republicans into that rarest of achievements -- increasing the congressional seats of a reigning president during a midterm election.
This certainly is not meant to discredit Zogby, although tweaking the likes of Carville is pleasant enough. It well may be that the president faces a real struggle to overcome what seems to many suspiciously like a quagmire of Vietnamese dimensions in Iraq and one that may be far more difficult from which to extricate ourselves. Unlike Southeast Asia our interests are definitely tied to the Middle East. We cannot just pull out suddenly. Most Americans appear to understand this and support our presence there.
The economy on the other hand is a different problem, particularly the loss of jobs which Bush's much heralded tax cuts don't seem to have alleviated. Most U.S. elections turn on the economy with candidates rising or falling on pocketbook issues. But the president has options including major job proposals that could help convince voters that unlike the allegations about his father, he does understand that some are suffering.
Before burying Bush, the spinners should remember something else. As Zogby says, he still is a popular president. Americans do like him.
(Dan K. Thomasson is former editor of the Scripps Howard News Service.)
Patients with this Prez is a must.
So which one of the 10 dwarfs do you think will act on trade and jobs. By the way, what exactly can Bush do about jobs?
What is causing all this premature speculation...
The author gets it wrong here. This is not speculation at all but an overt attempt to move the Rat agenda to the front and make it more appealing.
Zogby = DemoRat
it worked for bubba!!
I think dubya handles it differently than bubba. Instead of a ju-jujitsu thang, there is this stony silence. Keep answering the nutty questions calmly and straightforwardly.
Sure, people are affected by the doom n gloom drumbeat. But finally they will hear something that will reassure them. They get used to that rhythm and trust.
YES!!!!! 1,000 times YES!!!! I see it that way, too!
Ok, so do your part and don't buy anything that was made outside of the USA.
We're looking for a job. Any job.
And looking over our collective shoulders more in fear that the bank will sieze our homes, than that terrorists will blow it up.
We're looking in our 10 year old's eyes and telling him we can't afford $10 for a toy B-2 bomber, until we have a pay check.
We're noticing that the goverment wants to expand the H1-B and L visa programs "because there just aren't enough American workers".
We're not being counted as unemployed because our unemployment benefits have expired, so statistically, we don't exist.
We know the answer to the question: "Are you better off now that you were four years ago?"
And we vote - or stay home in disgust.
Doesn't much matter. We know the current abminstration isn't, and enough people are running scared of losing everthing that they'll vote for change, any change, in the faint hope that it will be an improvement. They trade the POSSIBILITY of a national disaster against the CERTAINTY of a PERSONAL disaster.
By the way, what exactly can Bush do about jobs?
Ummm, for starters how about: close the borders to improve security and open more positions for US workers, lower taxes NOW not for the next (Democrat) administation, reduce H1-B and L visa quotas to something reflecting reality, pull back the 60% of the TNT manufacturing for our weapons from China, simplify and streamline the permiting requirements for new and existing businesses, impose reciprocal tarrifs, on our trading "partners", eliminate minimum wages so HS kids can get entry level postions and start to develop a work ethic, (many illegal aliens work below minimum wage now as off-the-books "casual labor" not records, no taxes), require that our personal financial data be kept within the US...
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