I agree with your basic analysis about defining the candidates, but I think Simon will have greater success than Davis in this. People don't really care (sadly) about abortion; pro-gunners are far more passionate about gun rights than the anti-gunners are about stealing them; and pro-lifers are more passionate about saving babies than pro-aborts are about killing them.
What I mean to say is, the pro-lifers and the gunners will be mobilized to vote and volunteer for Simon; but the majority of the voters don't care about the issues. The radical pro-aborts and anti-gunners will never ever vote for a Republican (even a liberal like Riordan) ... so we shouldn't even worry about them. They are solidly with Davis.
Most people will be going to the polls mobilized by issues other than abortion and guns. These are the people who either agree or disagree with Davis' handling of the budget crisis, the energy crisis, and the education crisis. People CARE about how their money is managed, and in all three, the state's fiscal house is in complete disarray due to Davis' gross mismanagement.
And, those people who don't see anything wrong with Davis' gross mismanagement of our resources, perhaps his corrupt administration will cause them to stay home on election day, or vote for Bill Simon even though they don't agree with him on abortion, guns, taxes, etc.
With that being said, Davis will lie, cheat and steal to win. Simon's team needs to be aware that Davis will not go down without a fight -- an underhanded fight, with stolen votes, corrupt government officials, union strong-arming, and out-right voter fraud.
So not only does Simon have to win legitimately, he has to have at least a 5 pt cushion to compensate for Davis' Democrat shenanigans.
Go Simon! Kick liberal butt!
Bump for a "Truer words were never spoke" byline.
Regards,
TS