If you are correct (and, I'm afraid it appears likely that you may be), then there will be no second term for Bush.
Like Daddy, like son: Snatching defeat from the jaws of unprecedented popularity. It is hard to do, but the Bushes can pull it off!
Perhaps they are simply trying to lead the Stupid "Big Tent" Party by example?
Still, I yearn to be proven wrong by a resurgent, refocused, courageous GWB (but the hour grows late).