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I understand the scenario you are painting. You are making a BIG ASSUMPTION, and you know what they say about ASSUME.

Specifically, the key to your assumption is that there is a demographic curve in the US that can not be changed and that the demographic curve pre-determines the amounts of people "not working and taking current level payments" and that those working will be responsible to pay all the bills. Another assumption is that current costs escalated for inflation over time and adjusted by numbers in the future age group are a good predictor of future costs.

Between now and then, I think that the US will reduce the Social Security benefits and try to find a way to reduce the increase in Medicare cost. I also expect that the US will encourage a "brain drain" from the rest of the world and change the US imigration policy to significantly modify the the demographic curve (i.e. if you are a 25 to 30 year old doctor or professional with a large family of small kids you are welcome to come to the US and get expedited citizenship, if you are over 50-forget it!) of who is paying for what. When faced with a problem of this magnatude, I suspect that politicians of all parties, will figure out creative ways to change things.

Another outcome, which I find very frightening will be the enouragement of doctor assisted suicide. If you look at typical medical care costs, they get higher when a person gets older, but they skyrocket when that person needs constaint nursing home care and/or hospitalization at the end of life. I think that there is likely to be a change in the last weeks/months of life medical ritual that has developed over the last 30 years in the US. I don't see the Government paying the bill for people to die in a hospital in the future, I think folks will be "encouraged" to die at home. How the "enouragement" occurs and how they "die" is the part that scares me.

Your thoughts about who, where and how they die certainly frighten me and I am a retired physician. I am not making assumptions. Those are actuarial projections from SS itself and from the Cato institute. It is my opinion that there are no political acceptable compromises that can resolve the shortfall.

And last but not least, these programs are an abomination that should be eliminated from the face of the earth and should never have occured in the first place. Especially not in the USA. There is no Constitutional authority for either.

I also expect that the US will encourage a "brain drain" from the rest of the world and change the US imigration policy to significantly modify the the demographic curve (i.e. if you are a 25 to 30 year old doctor or professional with a large family of small kids you are welcome to come to the US and get expedited citizenship, if you are over 50-forget it!) of who is paying for what.

Question: how will this be enforced to let only the "right" types in, considering that we have a border that leaks like a sieve?