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A survey conducted by the California Teachers Association -- a group which endorsed Davis -- found Bill Simon enjoying a four-point lead over Davis, 41 to 37 percent. ... The polling firm Public Opinion Strategies Inc. says Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41% among registered voters. A poll conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research puts Davis's support at less than 38% of voters and Simon's at 44%.

The latter two polls are out-of-date (Public Opinion Strategies took its poll in mid-March, while the Probolsky poll was done on April 2-4). I hadn't heard about the CTA poll, and could find no mention of it when I did a search. Does anyone have a link, or know when it was conducted? Otherwise there is no way of judging its significance.

Out of date is kinda relative. They're still fairly recent, and I'll take four or five recent, consistent polls over one very recent outlier. Should another poll or two match with the Field Poll, then I'll think there's been a shift in voter attitudes.Here are the polls I've seen on this race:

Probolsky & Associates; Apr 2-4 02; 825 RV; Simon 44%, Davis 38%, 53% view Gray-out unfavorably; Link 1

Field Poll; Apr 19-25 02; 546 Adults; Davis 44%, Simon 29%, 47% said they will not vote for Davis' re-election; Link 2

Unknown firm for labor union; Mar/Apr 02; Simon 41%, Davis 37%; Link 3

Public Opinion Strategies for Simon Camp; Mar 6-10 02; 800 LV; Simon 48%, Davis 41%; Davis with 50% disapproval rating; Simon led among women 46-43% Link 4

Field Poll; late Feb 02; Simon 44%, Davis 42%; Link 5

No matter how you slice it, the very well-funded Davis has miserable re-elect numbers for an incumbent.

9 posted on 5/1/02 7:45 AM Pacific by Coop
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To: Coop

And the CA Teachers Association poll is Link 3.