The polls were from Feb 02 through late Apr 02. Two were Field Polls (we never hear about the one {Feb} Davis was leading in). One was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Simon camp, another by Probolsky & Associates presumably for the GOP. The fifth was done by an unknown agency for a CA teachers association, which I dare say did not care for the results (Simon - 41%, Davis - 37%).
All those polls are getting a little stale now, don't you think?
Yes. And let's remember that polls six months out don't mean a whole lot. But they're all we've got right now. And they do show that, despite the rhetoric to the contrary, Simon's got a legitimate shot to win this thing. I doubt the POTUS would be out there raising money for a sure loser. :-)
I'm surprised we haven't seen a poll measuring the effect of the Oracle and fundraising scandals on Davis' numbers. The media and Dems may be afraid to commission one, for fear of the results. But I'm surprised the Simon camp or GOP hasn't done one. (Or perhaps they have, and did not care for the results.)
I suspect the latter is true. Remember, Simon was prominently featured in the media during the last few weeks of the primary campaign, since the media hoped Simon would upset Riordan and smooth the road for Davis in the fall. Now that that scenario has played out, the media is acting like Simon doesn't even exist. Simon is probably following the usual GOP playbook - spend big in the last two weeks before the election and try to create the final impression in voters' minds before they enter the booth. I think Davis has too much money for that strategy to work, this time.
I fear this campaign is going to be Clinton vs. Lazio 2000 all over again, with Davis winning by a wide margin despite his huge negatives and Republicans left scratching their heads and wondering why.