Coop, I had heard about two weeks ago that Davis had regained the lead in the hypothetical matchup. Was that a false report, or a temporary aberration? As a matter of fact, I want Simon to win very much, but it's the CA voters who make me think it will be a herculean task for him to do so. Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics are strongly Democrat in CA -- that's why the challenge will be great.
There have been five polls conducted from Feb thru Apr. Four of the five showed Simon leading by anywhere from 2-7 points (all within MOE). One of these was a Field poll. The most recent Field poll, however, was the one trumpeted all over the news showing Davis with a 14-point lead.
Now it's possible that something suddenly shifted all the support over to Davis, but until I see another poll matching up with this outlier I view it rather suspiciously. I'll take four consistent polls over one stand-alone.
Sure, the CA voters are a serious concern. So is Davis' war chest. But Gray's re-elect numbers are awful. I'm just hoping a significant number of Dems stay home. I think Simon's got a legitimate shot, but we've got over five months to go.