Original text by Sandy Kleffman, as published in The Contra Costa Times, May. 19, 2002 'Pay to play' concerns fueling Simon's gubernatorial hopes But the reality for the GOP candidate is that dissatisfaction with Davis doesn't necessarily equal support for his campaign Bill Simon Jr., the GOP candidate for governor, couldn't have scripted it any better. Newspapers throughout the state have run headline after headline in recent weeks raising questions about Gov. Gray Davis' prolific fund raising. The controversy provided a needed boost to Simon's campaign, creating a focus for his attacks on Davis' leadership. But it also demonstrated the uphill challenge Simon faces as he attempts to unseat the Democratic governor. While Simon held numerous press conferences to blast what he called a "pay to play" atmosphere in the Davis administration, the bulk of the media attention remained focused on the governor.
Simon's criticisms "tend to be folded into bigger stories and it gets lost," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a University of Southern California political analyst.
The reality for Simon is that voter dissatisfaction with Davis doesn't necessarily translate into support for him.
"He's got to convince people that this issue has put him back in the game," said Bruce Cain, a UC Berkeley political science professor.
Many observers say the controversy came at just the right time for Simon, a Los Angeles businessman making his first bid for public office.
Simon's campaign appeared to founder after his stunning, come-from-behind defeat of former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the March primary.
Davis spent $10 million to help defeat Riordan in the belief that Simon would be a much weaker opponent because of his conservative views on such issues as abortion and gun control.
Some of the major Republican donors appeared to share those concerns. Simon's fund raising got off to a slow start after the primary.
Then came a Field Poll revealing that Simon, virtually even with Davis in March, had plunged to 14 points behind the governor. "A month ago, a lot of Republicans were gloomy, thinking that Davis was just too smart to hand Simon much useful ammunition," said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. "But now we've seen Davis do some really dumb things," he added, noting that Davis offered to meet with young Democrats at UC Berkeley only if they donated $100 each to his campaign. "The appearance is terrible," Pitney said. "This is a heaven-sent opportunity: It gives Simon a chance to talk about an issue on which he can get some traction." It also provides fodder for television ads when the campaigns kick into high gear after Labor Day. "I think down the road we're in for an election with trades of charges about who's sold out to whom," Cain said. "We're guaranteed to have this as a major issue in the fall." It could prove to be a double-edged sword for Simon, however, Cain said. As Simon attacks Davis for his voracious fund raising, Democrats are likely to go after Simon, President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on their big corporate donors and dealings with Enron, Cain said. Fed-up voters may assume they'd get more of the same if they opt for Simon over Davis, he said. But Pitney said voters will see differences between the two. Simon is a multimillionaire who pumped $5 million of his own money into his primary campaign.
Davis quickly put Simon on the defensive over his refusal to disclose his tax returns.
Jeffe said the Simon campaign may also be stepping it up a notch now because it recently hired Sean Walsh and Rob Lapsley, political veterans who did a good job of creating an aggressive profile for Secretary of State Bill Jones during the primary race despite a lack of money. The controversy over Davis' fund raising ignited two weeks ago after news reports about a $95 million state contract with Oracle. A state audit concluded that the no-bid deal could saddle taxpayers with $41 million in unneeded software. Other reports followed about the governor's aggressive fund-raising techniques. The president of the California Teachers Association said he was taken aback when Davis asked for $1 million during a meeting in February. Davis defends his $30 million campaign treasury, arguing that it never affects his policy decisions and that it is necessary to compete against multimillionaires such as Simon. Cain said Davis knows he is likely to receive support from liberal Democrats, even if they don't like his aggressive fund raising, because Simon is too conservative for their tastes. "It's precisely because he's got the party over a barrel that Gray has turned it up a notch and decided to be as brazen about (fund raising) as he is," Cain said. But if liberal Democrats get too dissatisfied with Davis, they could also decide to stay home on Election Day or turn to the Green Party. Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican political analyst, said both candidates have failed to ignite much enthusiasm at this point. "Gray Davis' worst enemy right now in his re-election campaign," Hoffenblum said, "is Gray Davis."
"One advantage that a rich candidate has is that people will not think he's on the take," Pitney said. "Now he has an opportunity to cast himself as an outsider, somebody who's not part of the Sacramento gravy train."
Davis asked his chief technology adviser to resign after the adviser admitted accepting a $25,000 check from Oracle for Davis' campaign five days after the contract was approved.
Davis said he knew nothing about the Oracle contract before it was signed and was unaware of the campaign contribution.
A Field Poll released last month found that only 39 percent of people surveyed had a favorable opinion of Davis, while 50 percent didn't like him.
Revisions by Truth & Sulla
'Pay to play' governance antics dimming Davis' re-election hopes
Supporters of the incumbent are crafting stories for the gullible that imply disenchantment with Davis doesn't necessarily equal support for Simon
Gray Davis, the incumbent Democratic candidate for governor, couldn't have scripted it any worse.
Newspapers throughout the state have run headline after headline in recent weeks hinting about Gov. Gray Davis' massive and conflicted fund raising.
The controversy darkened the clouds over the Davis campaign by prompting critics to focus on Davis' misjudgments.
And it also demonstrated the downhill slide Davis faces as he attempts to hold on as Democratic governor.
While Simon held numerous press conferences to point out what he called a "pay to play" atmosphere in the Davis administration, the bulk of the second-rate media, apparently disinclined by editorial policies from covering the Simon campaign, remained focused on the governor.
Criticisms of Davis "tend to be folded into bigger stories and it gets lost," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, whose views on politics are oft tapped by the journalistically challenged and once widely respected L. A. Times.
The nightmare for Davis is that voter dissatisfaction with him cannot be permitted to translate into knocking him out of consideration.
"He's got to convince people that this issue has put him back in the game," said Bruce Cain, a UC Berkeley political science professor.
Many observers say the controversy came at just the wrong time for Davis, a beleaguered governor making his case he's not at fault for the state's $23.6 billion deficit, and seeking re-election to office.
Simon's campaign appeared to gain momentum after his stunning, come-from-behind victory over former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the March primary.
Davis squandered $10 million to help nominate Simon in the belief that Riordan would have been a much stronger opponent because of his moderate views on such issues as abortion and gun control.
Some of the major Democrat donors appeared to question Davis' thinking. Simon's fund raising has been on the rise since his primary win. And, following appearances with President Bush has skyrocketed.
Simon quickly put Davis on the defensive over his refusal to disclose his relationships with Enron and Global Crossing.
Then came a questionable Field Poll showing that Simon, virtually even with Davis in March, had dropped 14 points behind the governor.
"A month ago, a lot of Republicans were gloomy, thinking that Davis was just too smart to hand Simon much useful ammunition," said John Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.
"But now we've seen Davis do some really dumb things," he added, noting that Davis offered to meet with young Democrats at UC Berkeley only if they donated $100 each to his campaign.
"The appearance is terrible," Pitney said. "This is a heaven-sent opportunity: It gives Simon a chance to talk about an issue on which he can get even more traction."
It also gives evidence of 'pay for play' for television ads when the campaigns kick into high gear after Labor Day.
"I think down the road we're in for an election with trades of charges about who's sold out to whom," Cain said. "We're guaranteed to have this as a major issue in the fall."
It could prove to be a double-edged sword, however, Cain said.
As Republicans go after Davis for his voracious fund raising and his dealings with Enron, Davis is likely to attack Simon, President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on their corporate donors, Cain said.
Fed-up voters know they'd get more of the same if they opt for Davis over Simon, he said.
But Pitney said voters will see differences between the two. Simon is a multimillionaire who pumped $5 million of his own money into his primary campaign. Gov. Davis pumped donors, while watching California sink deeply into debt.
"One advantage that a rich candidate has is that people will not think he's on the take," Pitney said. "Now he has an opportunity to cast himself as an outsider, somebody who's not part of the Sacramento gravy train."
Jeffe said the Simon campaign may also be stepping it up a notch now because it recently hired Sean Walsh and Rob Lapsley, campaign veterans who did a good job of creating a strong showing for Secretary of State Bill Jones during the primary race despite a lack of money.
The controversy over Davis' fund raising ignited two weeks ago after news reports about a $95 million state contract with Oracle. A state audit concluded that the no-bid deal could saddle taxpayers with $41 million in unneeded software.
Davis, in an obvious attempt to defuse the situation, asked his chief technology adviser to resign after the adviser admitted accepting a $25,000 check from Oracle for Davis' campaign five days after the contract was approved.
Davis said he knew nothing about the Oracle contract before it was signed and said he was unaware of the 'pay for play'.
Other disclosures followed about the governor's aggressive fund-raising schemes. The president of the California Teachers Association said he was taken aback when Davis solicited them for $1 million during a meeting in February.
Davis defends his $30 million campaign treasury, posing that it never affects his policy decisions and that it is necessary to compete against competent and successful businessmen such as Simon.
Cain said Davis knows he is still likely to receive support from wavering liberal Democrats, even if they don't like his aggressive fund raising, because Simon appears too conservative for their tastes.
"It's precisely because he's got the party over a barrel that Gray has turned it up a notch and decided to be as brazen about (fund raising) as he is," Cain said.
But if liberal Democrats get to know the whole truth about Davis, they could also decide to stay home on Election Day or turn to the Green Party.
A Field Poll released last month found that only 39 percent of people surveyed had a favorable opinion of Davis, while 50 percent didn't like him.
Allan Hoffenblum, a political analyst, said both candidates are dealing with an inattentive electorate at this point.
"Gray Davis' worst enemy right now in his re-election campaign," Hoffenblum said, "is Gray Davis."