Posted on 05/23/2002 1:10:35 AM PDT by nickcarraway
I don't know where you came up with that "three votes per precinct" statistic, but you're way, way off.
California has a total of 25,702 precincts. Gore beat Bush by 1,293,774 votes in 2000. That's just over 50 votes per precinct.
And yes, that is a very high hurdle indeed for Republicans to overcome.
BUT, my central point remains. Let's grant your proposition. It will be hard. What does one do? Lie down? Give up? No thanks.
The logical conclusion is to take action, today. The higher the hill, the sooner we have to start climbing. Are you pulling or riding?
We each do those things which personally interest us and which we perceive to be valuable. You obviously want to put your time and effort into doing whatever you can to promote Bill Simon's candidacy. That's fine. More power to you.
I personally think that Bill Simon is the one who needs to get his campaign on track, if he's going to have any real prospect of winning. Without that, individual volunteers are not going to make a significant difference or sway the outcome. But that's just my opinion, and I could be wrong, so don't let me discourage you from volunteering.
As for my own volunteer efforts, I'm involved with several other initiative measures and campaigns (e.g., Tom McClintocks race for State Controller) which will keep me quite busy.
OK AFTER we have established that Simon is ahead by 4-8 points you want him to change his team and his strategy???....or do you not believe that he's ahead, in which case you didn't read/don't believe the article.
John and Ken are flakes. They probably DO believe what they read in both TIMES. That's why they are frantic. Simon is ahead. Simon will win. Period.
A big, fat deficit is the achilles heel of the Left. Known for their 'great leaps' in social policy-- when the cupboard is bare even the faithful democratic voter gets nervous. Time to illustrate how a more stable (conservative) administration is capable of ironing out the wrinkles in any economy by cutting excesses while making California more attractive to the private sector (investors, ie lower taxes) who produce jobs and all the goodies that go with it. Rocking the boat is a liberal thing. With retirement on the minds of many, now is the time for a soothing-of-the-waters and Simon could reap much from this approach. The key is to propose a lean and efficient administration of government, and a $24Billion deficit is representative of anything but leaness.
Abortion could kill more than fetuses. In Calfornia it might as well be the third rail political issue. Here, he must turn the argument on it's head and appeal to those women who have ever had one and lived to regret it. A single vote from half of this group could put him over the top. Emoter voters.
And finally, look out for "Simon Says" type negative ads. An all too easy way to paint one as a dictator. I'd be first to use it in a positive way to pre-empt what will surley be headed his way. If I find that the message from both parties appears to be just more of the same, I'll vote libertarian as I've grown tired of excuses as to why government can't be reined in. I've got about 24 billion reasons.
I'm not convinced Simon is ahead at this point. The Field poll, which I admit is of questionable accuracy, nevertheless showed Davis ahead by 14 percentage points. Most of the other polls showing Davis behind are 1-1/2 or more months out of date. The Field poll is the most recent one except for the CTA poll, of which we have only rumors. Hence my best guess is that the race is a statistical dead heat.
I think that Simon has largely squandered the two months since the primary election by failing to aggressively define himself to the general public. Now I could be wrong, and he may simply be doing the kind of behind-the-scenes spadework that helped him win the Republican primary. But from Davis' point of view, as long as Davis can stay roughly even or close to Simon in spite of all the scandals and budget problems, that's pretty good. Because it means Davis can hoard his campaign funds (and add to them) until closer to the election. Which in turn means there will be more money available for concentrated negative attacks on Simon, which can quickly demonize him and drive his poll numbers down.
Don't underestimate Davis. He may be a terrible governor, but he is a superb fundraiser and a viciously effective campaigner. That's his expertise. He has honed his skills over many, many years in politics. That's why he has won in the past, and may very well win again.
Davis' problems have been the front page news for months, and his negatives -- even according to the inaccurate and unreliable Field Poll -- show him with HUGE 50% unapproval rating. This is key. The budget, Oracle, fundraising, energy are all big negatives on Davis, and his negatives WILL continue to increase.
I agree that the race is likely a statistical dead heat, but I think that if the election were held today Simon would take it.
Simon needs to keep going to the grassroots. If the press refuses to report on his activities -- which they are not reporting on now -- Simon shouldn't waste his money trying to get out his message now. He should spend it motivating the conservatives, the religious, the grassroots; the gunners the lifers the homeschoolers; the families and parents and grandparents who are concerned not only with conservative social values but with the state of the economy and the financial future of their children.
This isn't going to be an easy race. I don't think that Simon or his consultants or staff think that it's going to be an easy race. It's going to be hard. It's going to be dirty (Democrats never play fair.) It is up to people like you and me to get the word out on what a good guy Simon is, and what a corrupt liberal Democrat Davis is.
Go Simon!
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