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I would love to believe Simon is ahead, but I note that the author does not himself tell us what those polls are. What polls have Simon ahead?

Here is a memo from a prior post:

Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll

THE INSIDER: POLITICAL INFORMATION NETWORK
THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: April 16, 2002

Another Poll Confirms... SIMON LEADS DAVIS (SIMON: 44.0% - DAVIS: 37.8%)

SACRAMENTO - Another post-primary election survey shows that Governor Gray Davis trails Republican nominee Bill Simon in the race for Governor.

A survey of 825 California voters "somewhat likely" to vote in the November 2002 General Election (conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research) found that Governor Davis attracted the support of only 37.8% of voters - an abysmal reading for an incumbent Governor seeking re-election. Davis trails Simon (as he has in all other post-primary polling that has been conducted) by over six percentage points. Simon attracted the support of 44% of voters in the Probolsky poll.

These results mirror a Public Opinion Strategies poll taken in mid-March, which showed Simon with a 48%-41% lead over Davis. The Probolsky Poll was conducted April 2 through April 4, after nearly a full month of Davis trying to change the subject from his failed leadership in energy, education and the budget by demonizing Bill Simon. The poll shows Davis' strategy has utterly failed.

Both polls showed that more than 50% of respondents had an unfavorable perception of Governor Davis. The Probolsky poll indicated 53.0% of respondents viewed the Governor unfavorably while the Public Opinion Strategies poll showed 55% of California voters held an unfavorable opinion of the Governor.

"For Governor Davis to have more than half of the electorate already viewing him unfavorably demonstrates the permanent and fatal damage that his failed leadership has done to his political aspirations," declared Simon for Governor strategist, Sal Russo.

"Davis knows he cannot run on his abysmal record of failures in energy, failures in education and failures in the state's budget and economy. This leaves him the only choice of waging a smear campaign against Bill Simon. But when he does, the negative backlash in response to his sleazy tactics will only drive his awfully poor poll numbers even lower," Russo added.

http://www.simonforgovernor.com/Reports/Weekly20020419.html#RMR1

This poll was from mid-March:

THE INSIDER: Political Information Network THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS

M E M O R A N D U M TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc. RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll
DATE: March 18, 2002

SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN! 48% - 41%

SACRAMENTO - A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.

The poll results reveal that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and California voters are looking to a new leader like Bill Simon to rescue the state from the litany of crises that have exploded on Davis' watch.

Simon Leads Davis Among Both Women and Men

Despite false claims by the Davis campaign that Simon would have a difficult time attracting support from female voters, Simon actually leads Davis among women by a 46%-43% margin. Among men Davis is especially weak. Simon receives support from a majority of men (51%) while only 39% of men support the troubled incumbent Governor.

Democrats Remain Lukewarm Towards Davis - Republicans Solidly Behind Simon

Davis' failures as Governor have been so pronounced that he has a difficult time retaining the support of even registered Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis receives the support of merely 63% of Democrats.

This point is even more strongly underscored by the intensity of support the two candidates receive. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats strongly support Davis.

Simon Lead Over Davis Extends Throughout the State - Including Los Angeles

Just as Bill Simon's lead over Davis extends across numerous demographics, Simon's support similarly is not limited to a specific region in the state. Simon leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco. Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic.

SIMON- DAVIS Ballot by Major Media Market

SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%

SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%

LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%

SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%

Davis Viewed Unfavorably By 50% of California Voters

After mishandling the state's education policies, energy crisis and budget and fiscal problems, California voters have formed a seriously negative view of Gray Davis. One out of every two voters (50%) views Gray Davis in an unfavorable light.

Meanwhile, almost half of all voters (45%) have a favorable view of Bill Simon, only 42% of voters have a favorable view of Davis.

Davis Failures and Unfavorable Image Lead Voters to Look for Someone New

Davis image problems and poor job performance have resulted in only 36% of voters expressing a desire to re-elect him. A startling 55% of voters said "a new person should be elected Governor of California." Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day.

Primary Campaign Perfectly Positioned Simon for General Election Victory

Simon campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "the primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters. While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leadership, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."

Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc 770 L Street, Suite 950 Sacramento, CA 95814 (916) 441-3734

...and finally the very liberal California Teachers' Association took a poll in late April that had Simon up 42-37. It was not released but informed sources in the State Capitol were all quoting it.