I'm just being realistic. The fact is, whatever chance Simon has of winning depends on accurately assessing Davis' strength. I don't think Simon can run a campaign that just says "I'm not Davis" and win. I don't think pointing out California's problems under Davis, like the budget deficit, is enough either. He has to run a sharp edged campaign in my view.
Bush's team committed a nearly fatal error in thinking they had the election wrapped up the last couple of weeks of the campaign. Gore kept saying "the health of the economy will be on the ballot election day" and Bush basically had no answer for it, even though alot of evidence was accumulating that the economy was slowing dramatically. Bush's team seemed to be unaware of it, or perhaps they feared pointing it out would backfire. The fact is they needed to be saying that the economy wasn't looking so hot in response to Gore.
Davis has the special interest votes he's buying and the pro-abortion vote, which is substantial in California. Simon needs to win the mushy middle of the road voters by a wide margin, meaning he has to motivate them to show up and vote heavily for him. With Davis' advertising blitz and his "It's all Enron's fault" spin, Simon probably can't do it.
I agree.
Right now, it benefits Simon to have all the bad press surrounding Davis and to lay low. (Simon has consistently sent out press releases, et. al. to the press and his supporters, but the press never covers his events or statements, so people think he ISN'T doing anything when he really IS. He's going directly to the people.)
Anyway, according to even the flawed and inaccurate Field Poll, Davis' negatives are at 50%. That was a month ago. I would imagine they are higher now. When his negatives start to level off, then Simon should ramp up the campaign.
Reality is, however, that we have just over five months before election day. No one focuses on campaigns this early out except political pundits, the press, and politicians. Most people -- 99% of the voters in fact -- just don't give a damn about the election until AT THE MOST six weeks before the election.
Some people criticize Simon for not going enough now. I don't. It would be a waste of resources. He's building his base and growing the grassroots, exactly what he should be doing.
I want to remind people that the media, political operatives, and even Simon supporters were critical of Simon because he didn't come out early (like before Christmas) to start talking about himself. Really, who focuses on a campaign during the holidays? These same naysayers (some of whom are my friends) were angry because when Simon started on radio and tv, the ads were all puff pieces and didn't go after the liberal RINO Riordan.
Well, Simon DID go after Riordan, and he did it once he had created a positive image of himself with the voters. That was smart. Basically, Simon put himself out as a viable, conservative, smart candidate. When Riordan was getting attacked from Davis and Jones ... and later from Simon ... voters had a place to go. Notice, they DIDN'T go to Jones, and Jones and Simon DIDN'T split the anti-Riordan vote. This is because Simon set himself up as THE alternative, THE viable conservative, and Republicans overwhelmingly went to him.
Simon won by more than 18% with nearly 50% of the Republicans voting for him.
While all of us, myself included, have good advice for the Simon campaign ... and, by the way, I agree with you lasereye that Simon can't be "not Davis" and win, elections are never won that way ... I think that if the consultants run as smart a campaign as the did in the primary (though not necessarily the same strategy), then Simon definitely has the edge.
And, finally, abortion WILL NOT be the deciding factor in the election. Simon will benefit more by being pro-life, and real pro-aborts would never, ever in a million years vote for a Republican no matter how strongly s/he advocated killing innocent babies for convenience sake.
Go Simon!
I apologize. The 'tone' of your response led me to believe otherwise. Because you don't live in California, you aren't aware of how forceful Simon IS, because his water isn't carried by the 'leftist' press, we even have trouble getting it out here. Know a way to get SIMON headlined here in LA-LA land? We have to try and discredit every 'DOOFUS' Davis 'story' because those are the only 'lamestream' stories available.
The media is in the 'forest' when SIMON fells the trees; they just can't bear to print about 'THEIR' trees being felled, for the children.