It appears that California has about 10,000 extra megawatts lined up for this afternoon than they expect to need. This isn't even going to be a close call.
You're right, there seem to be reserves. SO, why the warning? Perhaps the reserves graph that can be seen as the green line on
http://www.caiso.com/SystemStatus.html assumes the availability of those out-of-State supplies that are being diverted?
