Second, it is a COMPLETE WASTE OF MONEY to be running ads now. NO ONE is focused on the election except us on FR, the media, and political pundits. If Simon spends a bunch of money now, it's throwing it down the drain -- literally. I'm glad Davis is wasting his money. It's not getting him anywhere, and it shows that he is REALLY WORRIED. NO ONE is so stupid to run ads FIVE MONTHS before an election unless they have major damage control.
Davis and Simon are neck and neck in the polls, and that will stay throughout the summer. Davis' negatives are huge -- over 50% of likely voters say they disapprove of his performance. 50% of ALL ADULTS in the Field Poll said they don't like him.
Davis has major problems. But Simon wouldn't be smart to spend a lot of money now when no one is paying attention.
Sorry, I don't mean to get all mad at you about this, but your post is reminescent of the posts in December and early January about Simon against Riordan, where EVERYONE was saying Simon needs to do this, do that, hit Riordan early and often. Fortunately, clearer heads prevailed and Simon took the election by nearly 19 points because the Simon Team was patient.
So, be patient. There is five months until the election.
right!
Just like Clinton was stupid to run ads defining Bob Dole in 1996 when no one was paying attention. It drove Doles negatives up to the same point as Clinton's. Dole never recovered. Dole and Simon think alike. Start late.. finish last....
People vote on impressions. Simon and Davis are in a dead heat. Davis has had more negative publicity than anyone in California history. He will not go much lower. He can come up and Simon go down. Yet it is still a dead heat. Davis is just starting his attacks on Simon. Even someone as dumb as James Carville understands that starting fights over charges with Republicans in a Democrat state always benefits Democrats. It does not matter if the charges are true. Democrats just have to get the Republican to respond in kind. Winners turn liabilities into assets. Then and only then do left wing assults in a left wing state fail.
Simon is not nearly politically savey enough to do that. He will deny the charges. He will call Davis a liar. He will say the charges are false. He will present evidence that says the charges are false. That may all be the God's truth, but it will re-elect Davis. That is what you say is the strategy Simon used against Riorden's use of this issue. That was an entirely different election. What worked against Riorden is not worth a warm pitcher of spit against Davis. And you just told me you don't know that to be the case.
You tell me not to lose patience with Simon. Then you tell me Simon is doing exactly what Davis wants and hopes Simon will do. You think that will reassure me, because it reassures you. All you do is reafirm Simon is clueless about how to win elections in Democratic states.
Simon will counter with more charges and more proofs that he is not guilty. Simon will accuse Davis of playing dirty pool. And Davis will fire back saying Republicans made the same charges against Simon. Democratic voters always root for their guy in fight with a Republican. The Democrats don't like Davis, but he is their guy. When Davis attacks and Simon counter attacks, Democrats will support Davis. The more Davis attacks and Simon fights back, the better Davis will do. Democrat voters do not see attacks by a Democrats as attacks. They see counter attacks by Republican candidates as unfair attacks. Why do you think Davis does it?
ALL DAVIS NEEDS IS TO CREATE THE IMPRESSION THAT SIMON IS NEARLY AS BAD AS DAVIS. Responding to attacks with defenses and counterattcks will result in 4 percent of the Democrats that are now for Simon changing back to Davis. That will make a 2 percent Simon win into a 52.0/48.0 Davis win.
As Bill Clinton proved and Davis is too dumb to learn, it does no good to deny charges and counter attack. You have two techniques that work. They are the charges don't matter and the charge is really an asset in disquise. Right wing candidates in leftist states must turn their perceived liablitiies into assets not grounds for conflict. Repubicans can attack and counter attack in a primary and win. But in a Democrat state where Democrats votes are needed to win, a Repubican has to make a Democrat look like a mean bully for attacking him. Republicans can not win conflicts in Democratic states. That is why Democrats always try to start conflicts in Democratic states.
People stopped focusing on elections in 1976. Baring a huge last minute event, impressions created over time decide elections. To be a success impressions must be created starting the day the decision to run is made. Stop making impressions the day after the candidate dies.