Everywhere Simon goes, he's mobbed. He's meeting weekly with all the important organizations within the state. I think he's got a good chance - primarily because Davis is continually shooting himself in the foot.
Remember, the dems favorite trick is to use PROJECTION. What they do is tell the opposite of the truth. In other words, if their guy is way behind, they will say it's the other way around. I do believe this is exactly what's going on. This method is used to disarm the opponent and cause them to become discouraged and stop supporting the repub candidate. So far, this has worked for them - but after 9-11, they don't seem able to pull this off anymore.
And ... I don't believe there is a Republican in California who would say such a thing about Simon (unless they're a RINO). The head of the RNC just met with Simon this past week. That wouldn't have happened if there was going to be a shutout. I believe Bush has told Mark to give Simon all the help he needs.
Also, I get e-mails from the Simon camp and they continue to count the President as someone who will return to California and support Simon at least 1 more time, and possibly 2 times.