I no longer get internal polls. But I have learned through long experience to read what the national leaders are doing. Most of my analysis is done based on what I see people doing. If Simon were doing well and Davis were in big trouble of losing, then Dubya would be featuring him everywhere. He would be the object of several Dubya fund raisers, raising millions upon millions for the Simon Campaign. Dubya raised millions for Bob Taft here in Ohio. It is a way to tie Bob Taft, who is sure winner, to Dubya. Dubya is also raising huge sums for other Republicans that only have a chance to win. Dubya ain't doing much for Simon. That is a very very very good clue.
The stories about Dubya and Simon are all about Dubya ordering Simon to get some pro's on board and to listen to them. If Simon were doing well, all you would hear about is Dubya giving his full support to Simon. Since Dubya is not doing that, I can only conclude that Simon is not doing well in the internal party polls.
You understand who is ahead in the horse race is not what is important at this stage. That is not what internal polls are about. It is not what people are telling you about voting that counts. It is about the base reaction to Simon as a person that counts. It is what they are going to do in November that counts. And that can be predicted. It is far more accurate than the media hyped horse race numbers. They at this stage are worthless. For example we knew that Bush SR was going to win in 1988, even when the horse race said Dukakis was 20 points ahead. Dukakis knew it too.