calgov2002:
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Posted on 06/24/2002 7:58:31 AM PDT by Coop
When Gov. Gray Davis launched a slew of attack ads last winter against former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, the political punditry proclaimed him a genius. By knocking the liberal Republican out of the party's gubernatorial race, Davis was handpicking Bill Simon as his opponent, a conservative "extremist" who would quickly fold in a brass-knuckles general campaign.
So far, though, the Republican challenger remains strong, as evidenced by Davis' anti-Simon TV spots. The First Commandment of political campaigning is: Never go on the offensive against a hapless opponent -- it gives him undue publicity as well as the sympathy vote. That Davis feels the need to target Simon so soon suggests that Simon isn't so hapless after all, a fact confirmed by both campaigns' internal polls, which show Davis' 14-point lead of only a month ago rapidly slipping away.
That's because in the early rounds of the brass-knuckles campaign, the only blows the genius has landed have been on himself. Every day, Davis looks more like the Mike Tyson of politics -- invincible in his prime, but a doddering has-been shortly thereafter, done in by the glaring defects of his own character.
It's hardly the political acumen of Simon, who only started airing his TV commercials last week, that accounts for Davis' nascent meltdown. For his part, Simon has kept a surprisingly low profile in the campaign, taking a restrained approach in his public comments on Davis, although his first negative ads will appear later this week.
That risks breaking the Second Commandment of political campaigning: Don't beat up on your opponent if he's willing to do the job for you. So far, Simon hasn't needed so much as to lift a finger, because Iron Gray has been busily pummeling himself into oblivion ever since the primary.
The first mortal wound came from the $23.6 billion hole Davis managed to punch in the state budget. In light of Sacramento Democrats' aversion to shrinking government, Davis has been left with little choice but to push for tax increases on smokers and car owners. Most Sacramento-watchers agree that between now and November, that list of tax-hike victims will only expand.
That's an obvious violation of the Third Commandment of political campaigning: Don't raise taxes during an election year. Liberal though Californians are, even voters in Santa Monica don't like turning over a higher portion of their earnings to Sacramento. As taxes go up, Davis' approval ratings go down.
Davis' biggest problem is that Californians simply don't like the job he's done as governor, nor do they much like him personally. They think he's incompetent for his bungling of the energy crisis and the budget, and sleazy in the way he unabashedly doles out political favors for campaign funds.
The governor's decision to focus his new ad campaign on Simon's role in a failed family S&L is an attempt to deflect questions about his own performance over the past four years. But the ad's tagline -- "Bill Simon: If he can't run an S&L, how can he run California?" -- only stands to hurt Davis by virtue of the inevitable question it raises: If Davis can't run California, how can he run California?
Then there's the sleaze factor, most clearly brought to light through the Oracle debacle, in which the blatant attempt of Davis aides to steer a lucrative state contract to an undeserving campaign contributor only confirmed the widespread opinion that there's nothing their boss won't do for a buck. The scandal even led one of Davis' Democratic partisans, state Assemblyman Dean Florez of Bakersfield, to declare last week that Davis administration officials "abdicated their duties, to the detriment of taxpayers and to the benefit of the corporate interests."
That's one of Davis' friends speaking.
The combination of incompetence and sleaze makes Davis something of a unique specimen for someone at his level in politics, which usually requires some degree of skill, likability or both. Some leaders are talented but unscrupulous (Bill Clinton) or honest but inept (Jimmy Carter), but to be neither able nor trustworthy puts Davis among a rather select (Richard Nixon) crowd.
Yet in Davis' case, sleaze and ineptitude are two sides of the same coin. Both are the product of a lack of principles on which to govern. Davis is motivated by the singular pursuit of power, marked by a callous indifference to how that power is obtained, whether it's through shady fund-raising or shortsighted, politically motivated policy.
The end result is that as doggedly as Davis worked to help Simon win the primary, he now unwittingly contributes as much to the possibility of a Simon upset in November.
Still, it's too early to make any predictions. The Tenth Commandment of political campaigning: It ain't over till it's over.
But I'll also give Bill Simon some credit. I get his E-mail updates, and he's been pulling no punches in taking on Grayout Davis. He just has a harder time getting his message out.
calgov2002:
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Disagree. He should be developing and communicating a positive message to his following to improve the breadth and depth of the sale during the campagn through a coordinated grass roots attack. He hasn't done it, preferring instead to rely upon an expensive media campaign.
When your enemy is doing it for you, its entirely unnecessary and even counterproductive to remind people that he can't run the government, much less than his own reelection campaign. You can always deliver the coup d'grace later.
Only after the positive message has been established. If Simon doesn't clearly make that sale on his program, he will look like a "mean spirited conservative" with no positions of his own. A thoughtful message will be lost in the noise of the last few campaign months.
The combination of incompetence and sleaze makes Davis something of a unique specimen for someone at his level in politics, which usually requires some degree of skill, likability or both. Some leaders are talented but unscrupulous (Bill Clinton) or honest but inept (Jimmy Carter), but to be neither able nor trustworthy puts Davis among a rather select (Richard Nixon) crowd.
Richard Nixon was one of the more able and intelligent Presidents of this or any century. Indeed, his untrustworthiness was confined to his enemies, not his friends.
Other than that, this is a very, very good article.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
clintbilly was neither "talented" nor "unscrupulous". He was and is CORRUPT to the core, and willing to call in the goons to secure for him whatever he wanted.
This is too good. I could feel sorry for Davis if he wasn't such a corrupt jerk.
You're a better person than I am! :-)
Oh, yes! Debates! I want so badly to see Davis lose it on television.
I'd like to see this on billboards at every on-ramp in California.
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