It's important to look at trends, and to compare like with like. It looks bad because we see a spate of polls with Simon ahead, and then this. But remember, the Field Poll has a pro-Democrat bias. The last Field Poll shows Davis 14 points ahead. So between April and July, he's dropped 7 points, with hardly any ads from Simon.
If we adjust this for likely voters, especially in a race where the Democratic incumbent is not well liked, a different picture emerges. And remember that Davis' lead consists of a lot of unlikely voters - for instance, latinos and people making under $40,000 a year.
I'll leave the pollsters with the final word:
"The percentage of voters choosing Davis over Simon has been edging down," DiCamillo said. "That is symbolic of the governor's situation. He is really not expanding his voter base. And, in fact, it is actually contracting over time. That has to be worrisome."
D