First, the Field Poll usings self-identified likely voters, not actual likely voters. Second, it pulls its sample on population, not vote propensity, therefore it oversamples urban areas which have a lower vote propensity than rural and suburban areas. Looking at the cross-tabs, Simon is ties in suburban areas and winning in rural and the Central Valley.
Even using the notorious inaccurate Field Poll, Davis' lead has been CUT IN HALF in two months! That's phenominal, considering that San Francisco and Los Angeles were over-sampled!
Davis is in deep doo-doo. All other polls show Simon ahead. Even a Democrat union poll shows Simon up by 4!
We have nearly four months -- the election is 16 weeks away. Simon is setting himself up for victory. He can't waste his money now ... it's ridiculous to do so when the voters are not paying attention (and won't until the last six weeks before the election).
Go Simon!