[Williams]

What happened to yesterday's article claiming a Simon lead?

[NormsRevenge]

July 8th Simon Maintains Big Poll Lead Over Davis

Here Ye Be! A Much More Reliable Poll So You Won't See This Publicized by the Media, Obviously.

[ElkGroveDan]

This is the Field poll.

While political pollsters call from lists of actual voters and determine voting likelihood from past voter history..The Field poll call everyone who picks up the phone and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they voted in the last election. One study shows that almost 20% lie in the affirmative on both counts. Field also oversamples the San Francisco Bay area. That is why Field has predicted Governor Bradley twice, Governor Feinstein, Governor Kathleen Brown and the defeat of Proposition 13 to name a few.

The fact is that according to the serious poll done by Public Opinion Surveys, Bill Simon is ahead by 8 points. This is confirmed by several legislative Democrat polls that have leaked out of the Capitol.

Don't ever believe what you read in the Field poll.

[Gophack]

The poll showing Simon leading by 8 points (39 to 31) was done using likely voters and vote propensity. The sample was taken geographically based on voter propensity rather than population. The Field Poll is sampled on population. We know that San Francisco votes at a lower propensity than Placer County, for example, but in the Field Poll, San Francisco has more weight than Placer County because it has a larger population.

Also, the Field Poll only includes people who are SELF-IDENTIFIED likely voters, not actual likely voters based on past election information.

Considering that the Field Poll over-samples Los Angeles and San Francisco, I think that the earlier released poll (which, actually, was done at the same time as the Field Poll) is more accurate and that Simon is, in fact, leading.

I know this sounds confusing, but the Field Poll is notoriously wrong. Unfortunately, people know the name and listen.

I still think that it's GREAT that even among the Field Poll, Davis' lead has been cut in HALF and his commercials did NOTHING to help him!!!!

Go Simon!