From what I understand, Republicans tend to show up at the polls in greater numbers than Democrats. This is something very difficult to quantify in polls, since everyone says they're going to vote. (Nobody likes telling pollsters that they won't).
In the end, then, in a normal election, about 5% fewer Democrats will show up. So if we had a 50/50 election, the Republican would win 55-45. In this case, we can see that the Democratic candidate is enormously unappealing. So I think we'll see democratic turnout drop by another 5%, so Simon, if the numbers hold roughly as they do, should win by 10-12%.
If the greens gain any kind of traction, it could be even more of a disaster for Davis. They might capture 5% of the vote, and at least 4 of that 5% is going to come from Davis.
So Simon might win by as much as 18 points with all that taken into account.
So what hope does Davis have to win? Well, I find it intriguing that even the pro choice crowd prefers Davis by only 16%. This means that either pro-choice people are unusually comfortable with Simon's neutrality on the issue, pro-choicers are simply not well infomed yet, or many of them are too appalled by the Davis record to make this their primary issue. Pro-life folks support Simon with a crushing 36% majority (meaning 86% support Simon), so I would think Davis' best strategy would be to run some fear-mongering pro-abortion commercials to try and win back his base. The Simon camp should be ready with a response. Something funny. Hmmmm ....
Simon: I realize a lot of you are concerned about the abortion issue. Well, so am I - and so is my wife. I'm pro-life, she's pro-choice. We argue about it all the time, but in the end our response has to be to respect both points of view.It is reassuring that the global warming issue doesn't seem to be helping Davis. I suspect that for every person who applauds the anti-SUV bill, there is someone who's switched his vote to Simon because of it. I notice that women particularly like SUVs, and this might be part of what's closing the gender gap from its traditional levels.The Governor of California cannot ban abortion, even if it was my fondest wish. And if I tried, my wife would have to kill me. So don't worry about abortion this year, whether you're for it or against it. The law on abortion isn't going to change.
We have more important issues to worry about, things we all agree on. Better schools. A sound budget, instead of a runaway train careening out of control. What we need is someone willing to think past the current crisis to the future.
And that man isn't Gray Davis.
Vote Simon, the thinking person's governor.
D
Simon is pro-life. But he doesn't have the hard edge that Lungren had, and he's appealing to all voters regardless of their position.
Most people don't vote on the abortion issue, for Life or for Death. It's like the 5th, 6th, 10th concern. The reason that pro-aborts are comfortable with Simon is because they are more concerned about other issues (like taxes, education, transportation, the economy, the budget, power, etc, etc.)
The best thing for Simon to do is let Davis be shrill on the abortion issue and solidify OUR base for US. They he can turn to Davis and say, "Alright, now everyone knows that I'm pro-life and you're pro-choice. Let's talk about your failed energy policies that tied California into 46 billion in long-term contracts, the fact that you squandered an $8 billion surplus to by over-priced electricity on the spot market, leaving us with a $24 billion deficit. Let's talk about your pay-to-play policies -- prison guards, corporate polluters, etc., etc."
We need to turn the tables on Davis by focusing on the issues people CARE ABOUT. No matter how strongly anyone feels about abortion, if the electorate doesn't think it's an issue, it's not going to be a deciding factor in the election.
But WHATEVER Simon does, he can't piss off his base or they will stay home.