Dean back in dead heat with Kerry

msnbc ^ | 1/26/2004 | RepublicanWizard

[republicanwizard]

Statistically, two are tied in latest MSNBC pollBy Mike Stuckey MSNBC Politics Editor Updated: 7:00 a.m.ET Jan. 26, 2004 Howard Dean is riding a rollercoaster in the New Hampshire polls.

As quickly as he sank in the surveys following his dismal third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Dean is rising again — so dramatically, in fact, that he is in a statistical dead heat with Sen. John Kerry in the latest MSNBC/Zogby Reuters Poll released Monday

[jonboy]

You are correct. I remember thinking the same thing. It was just too pat that Rasmussen (Portrait of America), for instance, had always been very accurate UNTIL the election. We were supposed to be in awe of Zogby's prowess in polling. At the same time that this happened, the press were all talking about how hair thin this election was going to be DESPITE what all of the other polls were saying. There was a HUGE attempt at stealing the last election involving several fronts.

[gitmo]

This is good and bad for the Republicans.

They are tearing each other apart without Republican help.
They are getting most of the media attention.
Luckily, the media attention is boring as dandruff.
They are using up their party's financial and human resources.

[George W. Bush]

Look at ALL the polls. This one is an anomaly.

Yeah, go back and look at the Iowa results. Zogby was alone in getting that one right.

A lot of us learned to stop betting against Zogby back in 2000.

Beware the Secret Sauce. It's slam-dunked the other pollsters enough times that we can't ignore it.

[mwl1]

Not exactly. GOP activists who changed their registration last year to vote for Howie are eligible to vote tomorrow, and so are Bush-leaning independents.

There is great potential for some delicious pay-back (McCain, R-media) mischief here.

[Mo1]

Go Dean Go!!

What's going to be interesting is how Kerry and Edwards will manage after South Carolina

Sounds like they don't have much cash on hand .. and Dean's still got plenty

[Aquinasfan]

There is great potential for some delicious pay-back (McCain, R-media) mischief here.

Hmmm... Maybe this explains the last minute Dean "surge." The polls wouldn't pick up these people, would they?

[mwl1]

Doubt that polls will pick up these people, because it is hard to assess how Independents will go. They will, however, have a marginal positive effect on Dean's showing (I certainly hope).

[InterceptPoint]

I would like to believe this poll but I won't until there is some confirmation from the other pollsters.

OTOH, you have to assume that Meano Deano is running a record number of commercials showing the Kinder, Gentler Deano and that these will have some affect on the NH voter. I personally think that the Iowa “Rant Concession Speech”, taken in context, was not out of line but was used by both the left and right wing media to crucify Dean. It was, in fact, the leftist media that turned on Dean and really hurt him with the mainstream Dems. I would just love to see the people of NH send a message to Kerry and Kennedy. I doubt if it will happen but one can dream.

[BlackRazor]

"I would like to believe this poll but I won't until there is some confirmation from the other pollsters."

SurveyUSA now shows Kerry with a 33-28 lead over Dean:

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NH040126demprimary.pdf

[aristeides]

Snowstorm still predicted for NH tomorrow? Could affect turnout.

[dvwjr]

Here is the data on the final pre-election polls for the 2000 Presidential Election. Most all of these final polls had sample sizes between ~1,000 - ~1,400 and a MOE of +/- 3%.

Final Pre-election Poll Estimates of the Outcome of the 2000 Presidential Election

                          Gore      Bush   Nader Buchanan Other UnDec   Total     
.
                          Dem       Rep    Green  Reform                         
********************************************************************************
* Election Outcome++++    48.38    47.87    2.74   0.43   0.58   0.00   100.00 *      
********************************************************************************
ABC**                     45.00    48.00    3.00   1.00   0.00   3.00   100.00    
.
CBS                       45.00    44.00    4.00   1.00   0.00   6.00   100.00    
.
CBS/NYT                   42.00    47.00    5.00   1.00   0.00   5.00   100.00    
.
CNN/USA Today (Gallup)**  46.00    48.00    4.00   1.00   1.00   0.00   100.00    
.
Fox (Opinion Dynamics)    43.00    43.00    3.00   1.00   0.00  10.00   100.00    
.
Harris (internet)         47.00    47.00    4.00   0.00   2.00   0.00   100.00    
.
Harris (phone)*           47.00    47.00    5.00   0.00   1.00   0.00   100.00    
.
Hotline                   40.00    47.00    4.00   1.00   1.00   7.00   100.00    
.
IBD/CSM/TIPP              46.00    47.90    3.70   0.00   2.40   0.00   100.00    
.
ICR                       44.00    46.00    7.00   2.00   0.00   1.00   100.00    
.
Marist College            44.00    49.00    2.00   1.00   0.00   4.00   100.00    
.
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter)     44.00    47.00    3.00   2.00   0.00   4.00   100.00    
.
Newsweek                  43.00    45.00    5.00   0.00   0.00   7.00   100.00    
.
Pew                       47.00    49.00    4.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   100.00    
.
Rasmussen                 41.40    46.90    3.90   1.00   1.00   5.60    99.80     
.
Reuters/MSNBC (Zogby)     48.00    46.00    5.00   0.50   0.60   0.00   100.10    
.
Voter.com (Lake/Goeas)*   45.00    50.00    3.50   0.00   1.50   0.00   100.00    
.
Washington Post           45.00    48.00    3.00   1.00   0.00   3.00   100.00

* Harris (phone) and Voter.com "Other" include Buchanan.

** Original percentages and report in PollingReport.com added to 99%, due to rounding. An additional 1% was added to "Undecided."

*** An additional 1% was added to "Other." This modification was based on a conversation with David Moore on 12/6/00.

++++ Actual Vote sourced from Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

Source: AAPOR News: Assessing Poll Performance in the 2000 Campaign1, Table 1
(No longer available via Internet link)

Hope this helps.

dvwjr